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Severe storms 2015 general chatter


Ian

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?



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I guess they were really, really bored.

Per LWX: 

 

"A couple of stable layers aloft we are still in the process of eroding...models continue to increase instability through the afternoon as heating increases at the surface in tandem with cooling aloft.  Also, 50-60 mph winds at 15,000 ft...and approaching jet max of 100 mph at 30,000 ft. should increase convetion over the next hours."

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 89
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   255 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
     SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
       TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NC AND
   SOUTHWEST VA...SPREADING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
   APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
   NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
   HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
   SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
 

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:lmao:

 

I am guessing red box because of how they cut out LWX completely

Nothing shocks me with svr watches and warnings here but I'd really doubt it. Conditions are lagging models this far north so far. CAPE is iffy, shear is iffy, forcing is iffy. 

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 90
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   305 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
     DELAWARE
     MARYLAND
     SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY
     SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
     NORTHERN VIRGINIA
     EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE


   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN VA AND
   WESTERN MD THIS AFTERNOON...TRACKING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.  HOWEVER...BACKED LOW
   LEVEL WINDS NEAR A WARM FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE THE RISK
   OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WATCH.

 

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Nothing shocks me with svr watches and warnings here but I'd really doubt it. Conditions are lagging models this far north so far. CAPE is iffy, shear is iffy, forcing is iffy. 

yup 

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