MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z Hi Res NamWOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Majority of the second wave seems rain to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 4k nam doesn't change to snow till 4am Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z Hi Res Nam WOW Beautiful for NYC & LI & CNJ & PHL. Wishing the guys to the north luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 4k nams not pretty for nw areas Hanging by a thread in coastal CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Majority of the second wave seems rain to me For who Richmond ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 For who Richmond ? Still rain at 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still rain at 1am Please don`t make me do this . NAM KNYC CNJ LI You go from 12 to 1 to 15 to1 Hour 45 - 8 . 2 Hour 48 - 10 .35 Hour 51 -12 .3 Hour 54 -14 .2 CNJ .1 Through KNYC LI Westchester You go 15 to1 Hour 45 - 10 .1 Hour 48 .-12 .3 Hour 51 - 14 .2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Please don`t make me do this . NAM KNYC CNJ LI You go from 12 to 1 to 15 to1 Hour 45 - 8 . 2 Hour 48 - 10 .35 Hour 51 -12 .3 Hour 54 -14 .2 CNJ .1 Through KNYC LI Westchester You go 15 to1 Hour 45 - 10 .1 Hour 48 .-12 .3 Hour 51 - 14 .2 Still confused how this proves the fact the 4knam is still rain at 1am? Not being sarcastic just legitimately asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Are we looking at different models ? I'm confused.....4k Nam looks great for us all. I see a lot of snow and not a lot of rain : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still rain at 1am It is - 4 at 850 BL 34 and cold at every layer . It is snowing at 1am SECS from Philly through KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hi Res Nam is a big hit for NYC and LI. I don't know what he is looking at. Potentially further south than that. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Are we looking at different models ? I'm confused.....4k Nam looks great for us all. I see a lot of snow and not a lot of rain : ImageUploadedByTapatalk1425395894.165458.jpg Don`t be , its a snowstorm right along I95 . And there is still .6 up there at 15 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NYC will be on the northern fringe of the heaviest snows again IMO - still expecting 3-5" in the city, more just south as you get into central nj, anything over 4 would be my biggest total of the year, but would like just one 6"+ event this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NYC will be on the northern fringe of the heaviest snows again IMO - still expecting 3-5" in the city, more just south as you get into central nj, anything over 4 would be my biggest total of the year, but would like just one 6"+ event this year.. NYC right now isn't on the northern fringe. Every model gives NYC 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Are we looking at different models ? I'm confused.....4k Nam looks great for us all. I see a lot of snow and not a lot of rain : ImageUploadedByTapatalk1425395894.165458.jpg Looks like a TTN -CNJ JP. 6+ area wide is still not a bad forecast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 PG, this was what I was asking about, I wasn't questioning whether you were right or not, it shows rain at 1am and snow at 4... Was curious as to why the model would be printing that out then, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still confused how this proves the fact the 4knam is still rain at 1am? Not being sarcastic just legitimately asking Still confused how this proves the fact the 4knam is still rain at 1am? Not being sarcastic just legitimately asking Nws has it changing to snow after 2 am for south central nj..Not unexpected.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 PG, this was what I was asking about, I wasn't questioning whether you were right or not, it shows rain at 1am and snow at 4... Was curious as to why the model would be printing that out then, that's allThat's just an algorithm printing out ptype. The soundings are where you need to look. Then the forecaster makes his /her interpretation. Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 PG, this was what I was asking about, I wasn't questioning whether you were right or not, it shows rain at 1am and snow at 4... Was curious as to why the model would be printing that out then, that's all You said the second wave is mostly rain. Lets move on. Here's the Edison sounding @ 42. Does the Hi-RES use the same data or does it calculate new numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NYC right now isn't on the northern fringe. Every model gives NYC 6+. when all is said and done, I agree right now we are not... completely agree with that.. I'm saying I think we see further adjustments, and again just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That's just an algorithm printing out ptype. The soundings are where you need to look. Then the forecaster makes his /her interpretation. Hope this helps. That's just an algorithm printing out ptype. The soundings are where you need to look. Then the forecaster makes his /her interpretation. Hope this helps. Appreciate the non hostile explanation most here seem to lack Anyway here the total Ptype printouts for the whole 4k run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 PG, this was what I was asking about, I wasn't questioning whether you were right or not, it shows rain at 1am and snow at 4... Was curious as to why the model would be printing that out then, that's all I hear ya , but don`t base your forecast off those radar maps . It is -4 at 850 - at 700 and 34 @ the BL poss why the algo prob prints out R Trust me if it will never S in Colts Neck and R in Middletown NY . algo stuff . Check all levels , you will see man . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I hear ya , but don`t base your forecast off those radar maps . It is -4 at 850 - at 700 and 34 @ the BL poss why the algo prob prints out R Trust me if it will never S in Colts Neck and R in Middletown NY . algo stuff . Check all levels , you will see man . Thanks appreciate it, I assumed those radar reflectivities were fairly accurate but I guess not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Entire NAM run for JFK 150303/2200Z 10 16012KT 30.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0150303/2300Z 11 16011KT 30.8F SNPL 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.033 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.04 53| 47| 0150304/0000Z 12 17011KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.12 0| 4| 96----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150304/0100Z 13 17013KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.22 0| 0|100150304/0200Z 14 18012KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.38 0| 0|100150304/0300Z 15 19009KT 33.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.54 0| 0|100150304/0400Z 16 20005KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.164 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.70 0| 0|100150304/0500Z 17 20007KT 34.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.76 0| 0|100150304/0600Z 18 22011KT 34.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.77 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150304/0700Z 19 23013KT 34.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78 0| 0|100150304/0800Z 20 24013KT 34.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78 0| 0| 0150304/0900Z 21 24011KT 34.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78 0| 0| 0150304/1000Z 22 24009KT 33.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78 0| 0| 0150304/1100Z 23 24009KT 33.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78 0| 0| 0150304/1200Z 24 25008KT 33.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78 0| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150304/1300Z 25 25007KT 33.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.79 0| 0|100150304/1400Z 26 26007KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.81 0| 0|100150304/1500Z 27 24005KT 34.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.83 0| 0|100150304/1600Z 28 24007KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.84 0| 0|100150304/1700Z 29 24005KT 34.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.90 0| 0|100150304/1800Z 30 22007KT 35.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.93 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150304/1900Z 31 24006KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.97 0| 0|100150304/2000Z 32 22006KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.98 0| 0|100150304/2100Z 33 23008KT 36.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.99 0| 0|100150304/2200Z 34 26006KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.03 0| 0|100150304/2300Z 35 23005KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.04 0| 0|100150305/0000Z 36 26005KT 35.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.05 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/0100Z 37 25004KT 35.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.06 0| 0|100150305/0200Z 38 25004KT 34.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.08 0| 0|100150305/0300Z 39 23004KT 34.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.12 0| 0|100150305/0400Z 40 27004KT 34.2F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.14 1| 24| 75150305/0500Z 41 27005KT 33.9F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.17 24| 0| 76150305/0600Z 42 29003KT 33.0F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.23 51| 15| 34----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/0700Z 43 32004KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.26 68| 0| 32150305/0800Z 44 33005KT 32.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 7:1| 0.7|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.31 84| 0| 16150305/0900Z 45 34010KT 32.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 7:1| 1.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.37 100| 0| 0150305/1000Z 46 35011KT 30.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087 8:1| 1.9|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.46 100| 0| 0150305/1100Z 47 34010KT 28.1F SNOW 11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 9:1| 3.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.57 100| 0| 0150305/1200Z 48 34010KT 26.0F SNOW 11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.110 10:1| 4.4|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.68 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/1300Z 49 34011KT 24.3F SNOW 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129 10:1| 5.6|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.81 100| 0| 0150305/1400Z 50 33010KT 23.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 10:1| 6.5|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.89 100| 0| 0150305/1500Z 51 34008KT 22.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 10:1| 7.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.96 100| 0| 0150305/1600Z 52 33009KT 22.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 10:1| 7.6|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.99 100| 0| 0150305/1700Z 53 33010KT 22.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 10:1| 7.8|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.01 100| 0| 0150305/1800Z 54 33009KT 22.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 10:1| 7.9|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.02 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/1900Z 55 34009KT 22.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 10:1| 8.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.04 100| 0| 0150305/2000Z 56 34010KT 23.3F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 10:1| 8.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.05 100| 0| 0150305/2100Z 57 33009KT 22.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 10:1| 8.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.07 100| 0| 0150305/2200Z 58 33008KT 21.8F SNOW 4:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 10:1| 8.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.09 100| 0| 0150305/2300Z 59 33007KT 21.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 10:1| 8.4|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.10 100| 0| 0150306/0000Z 60 33008KT 21.3F SNOW 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 10:1| 8.6|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.11 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150306/0100Z 61 32008KT 21.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 8.6|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.11 0| 0| 0150306/0200Z 62 32008KT 21.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 8.6|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.11 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 one of these days baltimorewisher8 your expectations of getting more snow than you expected will truly disappoint you haha, can that day be tomorrow? to stay on topi - GFS is colder with wave 1 - gives NNJ - LHV 2-5" through 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Numerical printout is 1.0" of rain for LGA....followed by another 1.0+" of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Is this Sleet or ZR? For my location @ 12 hours. Sleet. Certainly looks like enough warmth at 10,000 to 5000 feet (700 to 850 mb) to melt the falling snow, unless snowfall rates were ridiculously high and they're not supposed to be tonight, and then the rain will fall through 5000 feet of 0 to -5F air, which should be more than enough to freeze the raindrops into sleet. Minor comment: should ask this in the thread on today's storm, not Thursday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So if that output is correct for JFK, they never get out of the mid 30s even for the warm part of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Pretty impressive duration to the system. Maybe a 4-5 hour dry slot late tonight before the rain moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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