KeithB Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Type of amount can we expect Clifton Passaic area from this storm threat. Too early to say. Anywhere from 4-12 inches are all easily in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Although there are negatives about being in March for snow there are also positives. Pwats are inherently higher as the atmosphere holds more water this time of year. So the juiced up solutions make sense. I'll never forget the rates during that April 96 storm it came down as heavy or heavier then the blizzard of 96. I think someone sees 3" hours rates and walks with the biggest march storm in our area since 08. I can see a foot somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Although there are negatives about being in March for snow there are also positives. Pwats are inherently higher as the atmosphere holds more water this time of year. So the juiced up solutions make sense. I'll never forget the rates during that April 96 storm it came down as heavy or heavier the blizzard of 96. I think someone sees 3" hours rates and walks with the biggest march storm in our area since 08. I can see a foot somewhere I agree, starting with tonight's 00z suites it wouldn't surprise me if the northern shield extends a bit more and this things juiced up, if there were ever I time i would buy into the srefs it would be this Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm very excited to see tonights model guidance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I agree, starting with tonight's 00z suites it wouldn't surprise me if the northern shield extends a bit more and this things juiced up, if there were ever I time i would buy into the srefs it would be this StormAdditionally....although the NAM is an outlier with how far north it is, and may be out to lunch.....don't you guys think that a GFS/ EURO trend north is more likely than vice versa specifically because the NAM (for multiple runs now) has been pushing that solution? As out to lunch as it can be at times...some weighting seems reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Additionally....although the NAM is an outlier with how far north it is, and may be out to lunch.....don't you guys think that a GFS/ EURO trend north is more likely than vice versa specifically because the NAM (for multiple runs now) has been pushing that solution? As out to lunch as it can be at times...some weighting seems reasonable to me I do agree that this has a possibility of trending north, but not as north as the NAM has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nam so far is pretty juiced up for the first wave compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseyshorewxguy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Additionally....although the NAM is an outlier with how far north it is, and may be out to lunch.....don't you guys think that a GFS/ EURO trend north is more likely than vice versa specifically because the NAM (for multiple runs now) has been pushing that solution? As out to lunch as it can be at times...some weighting seems reasonable to me So specifically because the worst model is consistently showing a wrong solution, the better models are likely to trend towards it.????That is not reasonable, rather it is the type of post that has made this regional forum virtually unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So specifically because the worst model is consistently showing a wrong solution, the better models are likely to trend towards it.????That is not reasonable, rather it is the type of post that has made this regional forum virtually unreadable. The nam is by FAR not the worst model...it's done a million times better than the euro, navgem, jma just to name a few...rgem is the only thing better within 48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM coming in further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So specifically because the worst model is consistently showing a wrong solution, the better models are likely to trend towards it.????That is not reasonable, rather it is the type of post that has made this regional forum virtually unreadable.You have no idea what you are talking about. I can assure you that a north trend for the GFS and EURO are mathematically a little more likely ( as opposed to a south trend) due to the NAM being well north. You speak as if the other models are 100x better than the NAM. When the NAM spits out what people want..all of a sudden everyone loves it. So....please. Have a clue what you are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 the nam is further south at hr 45...not by much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 03z thursday is further North than 18z with the inital precip shield... And juicer, Precip arrives earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM coming in further south Top is 00z Bottom is 18z Explain how it's South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hr 60 looks good to my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This run will be a ridiculously snowy for areas NW of NYC, there's a ton of precipitation with this in the cold sector now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's further south, it's further north, geez Nam didn't budge In terms of North or South, it was juicer and a tad colder, back end snows as it pulls out were much better too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm cautiously optimistic, but we're still 54 hours away from the likely start time of any snow and many things have to work out just right to get us big snows in any storm let alone a storm on March 5th (climo), so I'll wait until tomorrow night's models before getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think the NAM maps above are missing a huge swath of what would be sleet/snow mix and sleet/ice, especially near the brighter areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Models are actually in really good agreement on this the only thing we have to figure out now is how much snow. Will it be 4, 8, 12? All of those amounts are in play and honestly I'd strongly favor the juicier scenario and this could very well be a MECS in the making. Again the typical amped up bias the Nam has is in play. Those higher amounts will probably be further south as the high presses in as we've already seen all season long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nam totals including tomorrow's few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm cautiously optimistic, but we're still 54 hours away from the likely start time of any snow and many things have to work out just right to get us big snows in any storm let alone a storm on March 5th (climo), so I'll wait until tomorrow night's models before getting excited. The fact that we are in the 1st week of March and tracking a significant-moderate winter storm threat is exciting enough. We have enough model consensus now to suggest we're in for some wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nam totals including tomorrow's few inches So Staten Island and Brooklyn get little. Add to the pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nam did come slightly south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So Staten Island and Brooklyn get little. Add to the pile. Only if the nams right, it's on its own this far north so we shall see... Disclaimer: posting what a model shows doesn't make me a homer cause it hits my area good, it makes it a coincidence, some people need to get their panties out of their cracks and realize the difference lol Feel free to delete but it had to be said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Models are actually in really good agreement on this the only thing we have to figure out now is how much snow. Will it be 4, 8, 12? All of those amounts are in play and honestly I'd strongly favor the juicier scenario and this could very well be a MECS in the making. Not so much a MECS maybe a SECS is more likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Tensions and emotions seem a bit higher for this event as the awareness that it might be the last hurrah for this season looms large. You never know, really, but chances are good this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I classify Rockland as the LHV since the Hudson River is the Eastern border. When I say Upstate NY I am referring more to Orange/Sullivan Counties. Lol not my fault I grew up in Staten Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Tensions and emotions seem a bit higher for this event as the awareness that it might be the last hurrah for this season looms large. You never know, really, but chances are good this is it.Definitely a lot at stake. Looks like someones getting a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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