gymengineer Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hmmmm... I just re-read the CWG winter storm forecast from 3/1 of last year. It's pretty eerie when you compare it to CWG's post about the storm today-- especially discussion about the 09Z SREF's, lol: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/01/storm-update-heavy-snow-and-crashing-temperatures-likely-monday-starts-as-rain-to-wintry-mix-late-sunday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I am happy for the warm up tomorrow. I want this ice sh*t off of my sidewalk/driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Climo almost always matters. Respect. Not anymore, we will need to rebuild averages every 5 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm so excited...jays wintry mix used my info about back to back 30" seasons at IAD....he forgot to credit me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm somewhat worried about the bust possibility, but I guess that is diminishing with each run? Seems like it. We are the jackpot zone now. Biggest issue is H7-H8 warm nose and how much sleet falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not anymore, we will need to rebuild averages every 5 years now. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not anymore, we will need to rebuild averages every 5 years now.More than just averages and you'll notice things generally stay within historical bounds. Snow behind cold fronts happens more in March than Jan because there is generally more moisture avail etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't think the models are high enough for qpf Thursday AM. Experience and knowledge over years of forecasting...if you open the pacific and the gulf and run that kind of tropical tap into arctic air some crazy things can happen. I'm real excited for an event like this. Could be intense rates in local banding, some thunder in the frontogenetical forcing, high sleet rates etc. That sounds like someone reaching for the clapper on the Major Storm alarm bell. If your experience verifies this prediction.... wowzer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Haven't seen any video posts by Bernie Rayno. Kinda dissapointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Why is that? More than just averages and you'll notice things generally stay within historical bounds. Snow behind cold fronts happens more in March than Jan because there is generally more moisture avail etc. Aside from having feast or famine and periods of cold and warm years back-to-back. One must account for shifts in the PDO and climate. Our historical bounds is pretty large even in the 20th century so you may be onto to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Haven't seen any video posts by Bernie Rayno. Kinda dissapointed. http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/snow-to-produce-major-delays-thursday-across-mid-atlantic?autoStart=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Tommy T. is unusually optimistic..... 9 inches for me and only slightly less for Balto city/DC areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/snow-to-produce-major-delays-thursday-across-mid-atlantic?autoStart=true Excellent thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Tommy T. is unusually optimistic..... 9 inches for me and only slightly less for Balto city/DC areas.Yea i saw that, very shocking. He is usually very conservative. But he does hump the RPM so I shouldn't be that surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/snow-to-produce-major-delays-thursday-across-mid-atlantic?autoStart=true That's a pretty awesome video, with some good explanations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That's a pretty awesome video, with some good explanations. I respect Bernie Rayno. I work with three guys that used to work with him at accuweather. He is a nice guy and very knowledgeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Tommy T. is unusually optimistic..... 9 inches for me and only slightly less for Balto city/DC Im not sure thats his call...he was just showing the RPM and stated several inches looks likely...WBAL always shows the RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I respect Bernie Rayno. I work with three guys that used to work with him at accuweather. He is a nice guy and very knowledgeable.He does not hype and is generally spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 He does not hype and is generally spot on. He knows his east coast stuff. Very good in his upper analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Let's hope the models keep this going at 00Z. It'll be interesting to see what the NAM does. Going in for a midnight shift soon. I imagine it will be busy (a good kind of busy) tonight at WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't think the models are high enough for qpf Thursday AM. Experience and knowledge over years of forecasting...if you open the pacific and the gulf and run that kind of tropical tap into arctic air some crazy things can happen. I'm real excited for an event like this. Could be intense rates in local banding, some thunder in the frontogenetical forcing, high sleet rates etc. Someone is going to get massacred by EPIC snow rates. It wont just be an assault, it'll be an occupation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Someone is going to get massacred by EPIC snow rates. It wont just be an assault, it'll be an occupation IF all holds together with stronger trends... Someone within the heaviest bands and coldest air may very well exceed 12-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 BEUser Actions Following Topper Shutt@TenaciousTopper First call for Thursday: 2" - 4" Metro, 4" - 8" north & west. Roads just get worse throughout the day as temps fall into the 20s. @wusa9 Bearish. Reply Retweet Favorite More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 IF all holds together with stronger trends... Someone within the heaviest bands and coldest air may very well exceed 12-15 These would be very localized areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Tommy T. is unusually optimistic..... 9 inches for me and only slightly less for Balto city/DC areas. Same here... 9" on his map. But he doesn't sound very alarmed... by his tone you'd think we'd be getting 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 These would be very localized areas. Like Leesburg..........Rockville.........Winchester..........Parkton...........CharlesTown........and others lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Close to only caring if OPM closes time. Unless the 0z NAM sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Close to only caring if OPM closes time. Unless the 0z NAM sucks. Already counting on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Im not sure thats his call...he was just showing the RPM and stated several inches looks likely...WBAL always shows the RPM The graphic said "Snow forecast" so that's what he's communicating when he shows that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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