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2/25 event venting/whining/whatever thread


BullCityWx

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How are those pressure falls coming?

 

Looks like FL/GA border to me but its tough to say, better hope the NAM is wrong 998 MB low over Emerald Isle equals no snow RDU to the east.....you might not get rain but it wont be snow.......and I would get mostly rain......I am sure the folks west of RDU hope its right though...

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Sure, things could go wrong, but I am not going to freak out and be depressed over it like some of y'all. I just don't get harping on everything that could wrong. Just see what happens, be hopeful, and enjoy it.

 

Let me help.

 

Picture yourself sitting in a fountain while Greg Fishel takes photos and a video.

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Looks like FL/GA border to me but its tough to say, better hope the NAM is wrong 998 MB low over Emerald Isle equals no snow RDU to the east.....you might not get rain but it wont be snow.......and I would get mostly rain......I am sure the folks west of RDU hope its right though...

NWS Raleigh said in their disco that the low is already initialize slightly north of the model projections. Awesome!

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.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM SET TO STRIKE CENTRAL NC WITH 6 INCHES OR MORE
WET SNOW LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC INCLUDING THE
RALEIGH AND GREENSBORO METRO AREAS...

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY FOR ALL THE PIEDMONT...NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS AND NOW INCLUDING WAYNE COUNTY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND IN FACT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SURFACE CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST POSITION.
THIS CONTINUED TREND RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

NWP GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
RELEVANT TO THIS FORECAST HOWEVER...SUCH A HIGH AMPLITUDE EVENT CAN
BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THE MOST SUBLE VARIABLES. SO WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE REGARDING THE OVERALL SCENARIO SEVERAL
FACTORS STILL MAKE US UNEASY REGARDING OVERALL ACCUMULATION TOTALS.
WITH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ANTECDENT
TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN NEAR THE
VA BORDER. BUT GIVEN IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION RATES...DIABATIC
COOLING FROM MELTING SHOULD COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
FREEZING AND ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND
BEGIN ACCUMULATING. THIS SCENARIO INHERENTLY CONTAINS SOME RISK FOR
A FORECAST BUST. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RATES AND SHORT DURATION OF
EVENT MEAN THAT EVERY HOUR COUNTS AND THAT A SLIGHT DELAY IN THE
COLD AIR OR A MIXTURE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON STORM
TOTALS.

WITH A FEW OF THE MAJOR CAVEATS NOTED...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW OF 6 INCHES OR MORE
LIKELY TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC INCLUDING THE RALEIGH AND
GREENSBORO METRO AREAS. THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO FALL
IN THE REGION FROM RALEIGH NORTHEAST TO THE ROANOKE RAPIDS AREAS
WHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
WILL ALLOW SNOW TOTOALS TO EXPLODE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE FORECAST IS ALSO DIFFICULT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND EVEN NEAR THE SC BORDER WHERE A WARM
NOSE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE THE SNOW TO A MIXTURE OF
SNOW...SLEET AN FREEZING RAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH
OF CLINTON...FAYETTEVILLE AND RAEFORD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WONT
FALL BELOW FREEZING AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL FALL IN A SHORT
WINDOW DURING THE LATE EVENING TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
SLOPPY WET SNOW OR RAIN EXPECTED AFTER 200 AM OR.

DRY SLOTTING WILL END THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 3 TO 5 AM WITH THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 5 AND 7AM. ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL END BY
OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT WILL
HAVE REACHED THEIR COLDEST AND HAVE FALLEN TO THE 28 TO 32 RANGE.
SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
MIST BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TO THE 33 TO 36
RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

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The sun today has nothing to do with what happens tonight. 

 

I swear, with you, PackGrad05, and packbacker. You'd think State fans would be happy and optimistic for once today.

 

I think you said it right there.  State fans are use to disappointment.  So we tend to be a little more realistic.

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Sure, things could go wrong, but I am not going to freak out and be depressed over it like some of y'all. I just don't get harping on everything that could wrong. Just see what happens, be hopeful, and enjoy it.

 

I think there is a difference between realistic vs delusional.  I don't think anyone is freaking out.

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This is why you don't trust weather apps on your phones... there has NEVER been talk of 8"-12" on the Outer Banks with this storm (that I'm aware of)

 

3:05PM Wed Afternoon...

The forecasters keep changing their minds about this storm. Let's hope this is one forecast that gets changed ASAP. 8-12 inches would bring the OBX to its knees. ‪#‎snobx‬ ‪#‎movedheretogetawayfromsnow‬

10427225_905483302829959_867333788252131
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This is why you don't trust weather apps on your phones... there has NEVER been talk of 8"-12" on the Outer Banks with this storm (that I'm aware of)

 

3:05PM Wed Afternoon...

The forecasters keep changing their minds about this storm. Let's hope this is one forecast that gets changed ASAP. 8-12 inches would bring the OBX to its knees. ‪#‎snobx‬ ‪#‎movedheretogetawayfromsnow‬

 

 

Weather Underground had me 80% Rain until this afternoon lol.

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This is why you don't trust weather apps on your phones... there has NEVER been talk of 8"-12" on the Outer Banks with this storm (that I'm aware of)

 

3:05PM Wed Afternoon...

The forecasters keep changing their minds about this storm. Let's hope this is one forecast that gets changed ASAP. 8-12 inches would bring the OBX to its knees. ‪#‎snobx‬ ‪#‎movedheretogetawayfromsnow‬

10427225_905483302829959_867333788252131

 

lol  I will say though, that those folks who live on the outer banks year round would take it in stride. It wouldn't cause near the disruption it does in the piedmont.  

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No wonder people are so confused...

 

 

DT says.... enjoy your 11-13", Solak.

 

18Z 4km HI-RES NAM / WRF Model . INCREASES SNOW AGAIN !! ocver central NC...north central NC into entie southeast half of VA ...event into RICHMOND

11001650_824486037598656_436843628581639

WRAL says... enjoy your 3-5", Solak.

 

SNOW POTENTIAL: Here's the latest from the WRAL Weather Team.
Stay updated>>>wral.com/weather

11021325_10153705387147178_1269549889267
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