Hoosier Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Tricky temperature forecast for Tuesday. 9 times out of 10, I'd be all-in on warmth in this scenario with a decent cutter passing north (assuming this track occurs) but it's more complicated in this case given the extensive snow field. Here's a comparison of NAM/GFS 2m temps at 00z Wednesday (which often underestimate temps in these situations): 850 mb temps get to 8-9C here, and with low level southwest flow, it would normally suggest highs not having any trouble getting into the 50s. Seems like this could be a prime candidate for it not to happen, but we'll have a better idea of temperature trends on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The 12z EC isn't in all the way yet, but through Monday night, the upper air looks more like the GEM and (i assume) the UKmet. The northern trough is faster and less connected with the southwest low. It kicks out that lead energy faster, which suppresses the downstream ridge. I am expecting a more suppressed solution, but I've been wrong before. Waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think the southern trends are going to end soon but the way to go with this system. (weekend system trends) For me this event could be the worst one of the season for the region has been so cold the rain will complicate things greatly. Last season the transition from winter to spring was slow and the meltdown gradual so flooding was not an issue. This year the opposite might be on our doorsteps. The other factor of this will be the time of onset of precip. If during the wee hours of the morning then things will be much worse wrt surface freeze ups and icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The 12z EC isn't in all the way yet, but through Monday night, the upper air looks more like the GEM and (i assume) the UKmet. The northern trough is faster and less connected with the southwest low. It kicks out that lead energy faster, which suppresses the downstream ridge. I am expecting a more suppressed solution, but I've been wrong before. Waiting... Ever so slightly flatter. Pretty similar, but the upper air trend is noteworthy I think. It's definitely in the GEM and, to a lesser extent, the UKmet, camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The cloudiest place would be the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Winters are a little cloudier than Detroit, but summer is basically overcast season. From my perspective, summer in Detroit might as well be Hawaii. Relentless sun all the time, almost every day, but I do realize that this is basically the cloud capital of the eastern U.S. It is just perspective & personal experience. People think I'm crazy. Point being, it's not like the sun isn't going to come out all summer long (which can't be said for a lot of places), so I'm in no hurry to end winter. If we're going to get a winter storm, I'd like it to be snow. When summer comes, rest assured, I'll be closing the shutters to keep that junk out of my house First glance at the 12z Canadian is much weaker with the surface low and mainly snow. No time to dig in further. Good point. I love the constant gray we have in late Fall and winter here...because you know summer will be full of sunshine. We have had some cloudy spells in recent summers but overall summer is very bright. Back on topic...will be interesting to see if the foreign models are onto something for us or blowing smoke. Clearly colder than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The Gem looks very icy for DTX on this run. Which model started the southern trend on the weekend system ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Good point. I love the constant gray we have in late Fall and winter here...because you know summer will be full of sunshine. We have had some cloudy spells in recent summers but overall summer is very bright. Back on topic...will be interesting to see if the foreign models are onto something for us or blowing smoke. Clearly colder than the GFS. I'm going to be ready for spring after the 14th of March.... And it's coming. If not, I'll utilize what weather I have either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'm going to be ready for spring after the 14th of March.... And it's coming. If not, I'll utilize what weather I have either way. Ill take another month of constant snow than bring on baseball season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Ill take another month of constant snow than bring on baseball season I'd be ok with this. Never going to beat Morch 2012, so we may as well have lots of snow to keep things looking nice. Then it can go straight to 60's and 70's in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'd be ok with this. Never going to beat Morch 2012, so we may as well have lots of snow to keep things looking nice. Then it can go straight to 60's and 70's in April. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z Euro is mostly snow Tuesday morning in northern IL, maybe a brief period of mix/rain, then back to light snow. I'm buying into idea that departing ridge axis will keep it colder/drier as precip arrives. Trend toward weaker solutions on most the guidance except GFS/GEFS results in much less pronounced warm surge as 850 mb remains open. Still time for things to change certainly, but at this point it's appearing that GFS and multiple GEFS members are strong outliers. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12z Euro control run looks good with regards to the front end thump of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think it is important to point out that 98% of the precip on the 18z NAM run for the GTA falls BEFORE temps climb above the freezing mark. And even when they do, it is not as sig as the GFS. This verifying would result in a very significant storm for the GTA region with a good possibility at some good snow totals and ice accretion. Soundings during the heaviest period of precip (Tues evening) from north Toronto just scream +ZR. I'd like to lock this in please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Such strong WAA and steep mid level lapse rates will be fun to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Front end thumps love to over perform. Thinking 3" is the floor with this one for much of GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 Front end thumps love to over perform. Thinking 3" is the floor with this one for much of GTA. Indeed, but most concerning to me is the evident potential for significant freezing rain following this snow. I would not at all be surprised to see 1cm + of ice in some locales. Rates should be really significant early Tues evening when ground temps are at -5 and 850 is sitting at 8-9 degrees C. Not to mention that even as temps climb, the snow pack will act as a moderator at ground level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Front end thumps love to over perform. Thinking 3" is the floor with this one for much of GTA. Not a classic blocking ridge over QC though. Small shift to the NW with the track could really affect the thermals or where the best slug of WCB precip focuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Front end thumps love to over perform. Thinking 3" is the floor with this one for much of GTA. It'll be interesting to see how this evolves over the next 2 days or so. Upper air temperatures could go above freezing but we'll see how the surface responds to the WAA. Its possible we see 2-4" as a front end thump and then transition over to ice pellets/freezing rain? Then maybe some rain for 2-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Such strong WAA and steep mid level lapse rates will be fun to watch waa nam.png Going to be interesting to see what happens with the front end thump there as WAA tries to bully into the area. Could see it being more sleet than snow if the warm air aloft comes in quickly...conversely, could end up being snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Just to show how this how this storm has progress. Ridging to our east has become more surpressed causing our SW US s/w to be weaker and progressive as it gets absorbed into the northern stream. All in all I still think this ends up producing the most snow we've seen at MSP this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Perhaps a thing in our favour is that the precip is supposed to start in the evening and overnight which means the dreaded march sun angle thing shouldn't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Point for here has freezing rain and sleet changing to rain after 9am and 38 for Tue. Still not sold on any one solution yet. The fact that the UKIE is so far south, and has done quite well this winter is definitely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Looking at the incoming 00z NAM, here's a perfect illustration of why it's so important to check forecast soundings and not rely on maps that only show one pressure level, i.e. 850 mb. This is for Kankakee, IL at 12z Tuesday. 850 mb temps are plenty cold for snow but check out the warm layer above that. This is a classic sleet sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Lol, 00 NAM completely loses the southern low...just when I thought we were trending to be less connected with the northern wave. Maybe should toss the NAM anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 0Z NAM way north, tracks the low through Western IA, Southeast MN, then through Green Bay into the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Lol, 00 NAM completely loses the southern low...just when I thought we were trending to be less connected with the northern wave. Maybe should toss the NAM anyways? Always toss the NAM, always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Always toss the NAM, always. I'm going to be leaning heavily on the 00 GEM. I think it has most credibility with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Always toss the NAM, always. Probably should wait for the other 00z runs but after watching the models/trends over the past several cycles, my thoughts for our area are a period of sleet, followed by some freezing rain, followed by rain with amounts of each TBD. That being said, I really can't see ice amounts being too significant as this setup is hostile to maintaining freezing rain (strong southerly low level flow) for too long in our area...so maybe like a tenth of an inch of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Probably should wait for the other 00z runs but after watching the models/trends over the past several cycles, my thoughts for our area are a period of sleet, followed by some freezing rain, followed by rain with amounts of each TBD. That being said, I really can't see ice amounts being too significant as this setup is hostile to maintaining freezing rain (strong southerly low level flow) for too long in our area...so maybe like a tenth of an inch of ice? May be about right. I don't know about other offices, but IWX already has the potential for .1" of ice accum for their CWA already. Obviously a couple days out yet, but it's sounding like a firm possibility for a good portion of the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Probably should wait for the other 00z runs but after watching the models/trends over the past several cycles, my thoughts for our area are a period of sleet, followed by some freezing rain, followed by rain with amounts of each TBD. That being said, I really can't see ice amounts being too significant as this setup is hostile to maintaining freezing rain (strong southerly low level flow) for too long in our area...so maybe like a tenth of an inch of ice? Kitchen sink. Might be fun/interesting watching it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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