Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS way drier for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS came north, good run for LSV. Still not there for true central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Also, some 0z EURO maps which DT posted on his Facebook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Also, some 0z EURO maps which DT posted on his Facebook: Thanks for posting. I get the feeling this is going to continue to go further south than north. This year it seems like there is not that northward friend we had in years past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Taking this one storm at a time, but tmrw is difficult to follow with general lack of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yes please (UK): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 UKMET is a solid hit: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yes please (UK): One time let's steal that heavier stripe of precipitation from Maryland! That would be a paste job right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GEFS is a big hit too @ HR 72. Mid range ensembles and globals really starting to honk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 UKMET is a solid hit: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072 I can see this being yet another frustrating event to track. Will the cold air push south and east fast enough before the precip arrives? Would be nice to see the 1000-500mb thickness line end up further south and east at that time period over the next few runs but not so far south and east that precip ends up that way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looking at NAM/RGEM I'm thinking we get pretty icy up this way tomorrow, thinking we hold onto cold air quite awhile. GFS wants to go much drier than the others with the initial slug of precipitation, being the main difference. As for the second wave, I'm considering it a fool's errand to track it up here, thinking LSV has a good shot at accumulating snows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Models are coming around to a nice substantial snowfall for the LSV. Just checked the bufkit for KMDT after the switch on the GFS. Looks pretty good to me. Even more qpf to work with as well the further south and east you go toward KTHV and KLNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Models are coming around to a nice substantial snowfall for the LSV. Just checked the bufkit for KMDT after the switch on the GFS. Looks pretty good to me. Even more qpf to work with as well the further south and east you go toward KTHV and KLNS. I'm confused - is this for tomorrow night or Thursday? These two systems I have entirely confused in my head. It being close to 50 Wednesday isn't helping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Tmrw is an ice storm/bit of snow for true central, then Wed Night and Thurs. might get the LSV. A LOT of variables left to iron out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm confused - is this for tomorrow night or Thursday? These two systems I have entirely confused in my head. It being close to 50 Wednesday isn't helping! Tomorrow looks like it starts as something frozen, then goes to rain .........but don't listen to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You're pretty much right on Sauss!! Hoping Cumberland Cty. sets up as the big winner in this deal for you and Carlisle!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You're pretty much right on Sauss!! Hoping Cumberland Cty. sets up as the big winner in this deal for you and Carlisle!! Why, thank you Wmsptwx. How nice of you to think of me down here. Still hoping to hit or break through the 4" mark before the end of the season. Only had 1.8" total here yesterday along with some sleet and about 0.02" of freezing rain which was just barely enough to glaze over the snow, preventing it from blowing around today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 EURO for round 1: 30 - QPF into western half 33 - 0.1-0.25 UNV, IPT, 850 through UNV, near MDT, 32 SE of all 36 - 0.1-0.25 for all except far southern areas, 850 near AVP, 32 still mostly SE 39 - Same precip, 850 out of PA, 32 UNV-MDT 42 - 0.1-0.25 west of UNV, 0.01-0.1 everyone else. 32 into far NEPA 45 - 850 line coming back in from the NW, same precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Some of the GEFS members are pushing 3" for this entire storm. Could be a wild rain to paste bomb storm. Impressive Cold Air Advection with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Wow, wonder if EURO is showing more sleet or frzrn, certainly a pretty good amount of precip. falls before surface freezing makes it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Round 2: 60 - 0.1-0.25 UNV SW, 850 MDT through just south of Voyager land, 32 UNV-IPT 63 - 0.1-0.25 I80-S, 850 pushing east of MDT, 32 east of UNV, headed to AVP, NW of MDT still 66 - 0.25-0.5 into LSV, 0.1-0.25 for everyone else, 850 cleared, 32 east of MDT, only SEPA still >32 69 - 0.25-0.5 line middle of PA/MD border, stays mostly in SE part of state. 0.1-0.25 for mostly all. 32 line clear 72 - 0.1-0.25 pushed south of UNV, still runs into some of true central, more coverage in NEPA 75 - 0.1-0.25 hanging in southern portions, everyone else 0.01-0.1 78 - Same 81 - Pushing out, some 0.01-0.1 hangs on in 81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Awesome pbp PSU, can you tell how deep cold air is for tmrw's deal? Big differences between .1 and .25+ ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Tomorrow looks like it starts as something frozen, then goes to rain .........but don't listen to me I think the NAM is on the extreme in terms of how warm aloft it gets but I do think we see mostly rain Tuesday into Wednesday before the cold air approaches Some of the GEFS members are pushing 3" for this entire storm. Could be a wild rain to paste bomb storm. Impressive Cold Air Advection with this storm. I am not so sure surface temps crash as quickly as models have them for around early Thursday morning but yea those temps crashing aloft could create rates heavy enough it won't matter if surface temps start out in mid 30s to accumulate and continue to drop below freezing mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Some strong CAD on EURO at hr36. On the western side of the state, it's >32 all the way to Erie. But get to the east, the line is all the way below the PA/MD line. Plummets west of UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm confused - is this for tomorrow night or Thursday? These two systems I have entirely confused in my head. It being close to 50 Wednesday isn't helping! This is for Thursday. I wish the picture was a little bigger. In the bottom right hand corner of the bufkit profile, it gives you the time stamp of date and time. This would be 9z Thursday, which is 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 BTW, the GEFS are at least 2/3rd solid hits: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 djr, do you think we have quicker changeover up north of 80 than models show? Really not sure how this will all play out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 So basically, here are your 12z summaries regarding Thursday: NAM: Trended SE but still a heavy snowfall for all, changeover may be a little later in LSV GFS: Furthest southeast, big event for LSV, not much 80N GEFS: Majority with a nice event for all GGEM: Solid LSV hit, more moderate along 80 UKMET: Solid hit for all ECM: A bit so-so, good for LSV, light-moderate north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Just wait and see now I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Well, advisory for tomorrow is weakly worded, has State College and Williamsport in the the same advisory as the LSV and southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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