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End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015


Allsnow

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I can see the very cold and snowy pattern still locked into around 3/ 16-18 /2015, then maybe a slow pattern shift to warmer.  Pattern strongly supports a MECS or better ? snowstorm next weekend, not a cutter. Anybody agree with these thoughts? I think March is a -10 to -12 month and 20-30 inches of snowfall my best guess.

 

At the moment, I think a mid-Atlantic snowstorm is possible (if not pretty likely) in the next 10 days. Not saying it will be a major blizzard or anything though. However, I think there will be a warm up behind any storm.

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So does the 06z GFS. The coastal low needs to strengthen more quickly or it's going to slide out to sea. The GFS has been consistently showing this feature and is starting trend a little stronger with it along with a (slightly) more northerly track.

 

gfsUS_prec_prec_126.gif

 

 

 

 

Still, you can't help but look at this upper air pattern and not get a little excited. There is plenty of room for the trough to come around and swing negative, giving the Mid-Atlantic the snowstorm it deserves.

gfsUS_500_avort_120.gif

Nice Work House

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Upton for Wednesday storm. Keep an eye on it.

 

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LARGE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE GFS REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE BUT THE 12Z/20 EC PASSES JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION. 00Z/21 EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS...BUT AT THIS
POINT DO NOT WANT TO MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SINCE THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL WINTER WHERE A COASTAL LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THEN COMES BACK A FEW RUNS LATER DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE WITH PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT MADE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. CHANCE SNOW REMAINS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND A SHORT WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STAY TUNED.

 

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