Rittenhouse Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I can see the very cold and snowy pattern still locked into around 3/ 16-18 /2015, then maybe a slow pattern shift to warmer. Pattern strongly supports a MECS or better ? snowstorm next weekend, not a cutter. Anybody agree with these thoughts? I think March is a -10 to -12 month and 20-30 inches of snowfall my best guess. At the moment, I think a mid-Atlantic snowstorm is possible (if not pretty likely) in the next 10 days. Not saying it will be a major blizzard or anything though. However, I think there will be a warm up behind any storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 A lot of moving parts next week on the GFS. Midweek clipper gives the area snow on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So does the 06z GFS. The coastal low needs to strengthen more quickly or it's going to slide out to sea. The GFS has been consistently showing this feature and is starting trend a little stronger with it along with a (slightly) more northerly track. Still, you can't help but look at this upper air pattern and not get a little excited. There is plenty of room for the trough to come around and swing negative, giving the Mid-Atlantic the snowstorm it deserves. Nice Work House Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Can we stop with the mid atlantic bullsht, they are getting snow now no reason to feel bad for them anymore lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Coastal storm on the GFS for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Gfs has the whole country in the freezer the entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GGEM is a miss to the south and east for next weekend. Big storm signal for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Upton for Wednesday storm. Keep an eye on it. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LARGE DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE GFS REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE BUT THE 12Z/20 EC PASSES JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AFFECTING THE REGION. 00Z/21 EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS...BUT AT THISPOINT DO NOT WANT TO MAKE HUGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SINCE THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL WINTER WHERE A COASTAL LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THEN COMES BACK A FEW RUNS LATER DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE WITH PHASING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT MADE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. CHANCE SNOW REMAINS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND A SHORT WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro is a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro is a cutterWhen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro is a cutter 198 hours out. Big potential next week. A lot of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 198 hours out. Big potential next week. A lot of moving parts. But a cutter is very well within the realm of possibilities given the teleconnections. Either way it's way too far out so it doesn't matter what solution the models are spewing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 But a cutter is very well within the realm of possibilities given the teleconnections. Either way it's way too far out so it doesn't matter what solution the models are spewing out. Agreed. Right now GFS is a hit, GGem is a SE miss and the EUR a cutter. Way to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 198 hours out. Big potential next week. A lot of moving parts. 9 days away. Right now, winter holds on strong on all models it looks like through next weekend. Impressive February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 But a cutter is very well within the realm of possibilities given the teleconnections. Either way it's way too far out so it doesn't matter what solution the models are spewing out. Just like todays storm and looked what happened lol. Way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Can we stop with the mid atlantic bullsht, they are getting snow now no reason to feel bad for them anymore lol... Umm, technically NJ and NY are part of the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro EPS mean is a miss SE. The system at 198hrs is the same one that GFS shows at day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro EPS mean is a miss SE. The system at 198hrs is the same one that GFS shows at day 7 I heard on a couple of forums that it's really close on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just saw the euro ensembles for mid week. There are many hits for midweek so don't discount that storm just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just saw the euro ensembles for mid week. There are many hits for midweek so don't discount that storm just yet. yup....midweek storm and weekend storm are both on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just saw the euro ensembles for mid week. There are many hits for midweek so don't discount that storm just yet. Looks like 7 or 8 members out of 51 try to deliver the goods. Stays on the backburner for now, but I'll be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015022112/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_namer_6.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015022112/gem-ens_z500_mslp_namer_21.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We need to go out with a bomb for everyone,than spring can come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Guess everyone is busy with the storm they didn't notice the 18z GFS....MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Guess everyone is busy with the storm they didn't notice the 18z GFS....MECSFor when?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Guess everyone is busy with the storm they didn't notice the 18z GFS....MECS A 1016mb low off the Delmarva coast over a week away is not really something to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 FWIW, the NAM is showing a solution similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The noaa forecast at least is boring for the next 7 days. I would rather not see the snow pack turn black and rot again in the city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 ?? Anyone ots for next weekend on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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