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Winter storm threat 2/21 - 2/22


JCT777

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Keep in mind that different snowmaps use different algorithms and you can't really compare an IWM map for the GFS to the EuroWx map for the Euro. They both attempt to factor in ratios but the EuroWx maps eliminate accumulation when surface is above 32. I hate the WxBell maps because they take everything at 10:1 including sleet but at least there you can do apples to apples across models. In my opinion Euro isn't actually all that much of an outlier. We have a reasonable agreement among the models that snow comes in midday tomorrow and comes in hard. At some point there is a changeover. The exact details we probably won't know until they're happening

 

 I previously e-mailed Eurowx and asked them if their algorithm allows snow accumulation when surface temps were above freezing and got this response::

 

 

"Yes it does, however it reduces the amounts due to melting as its falling through the atmosphere. At about 40 degrees it doesn't let much accumulate at all."

 

 

Also I don't know why the title at the top of the map cuts off sometimes but the pertinent info is also at the bottom.

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Usually when the storms come up from the south hugging the coast, the "warmer" ocean temps would stream in.  But the timing might depend on whether the big high yields fast enough.

 

I took it as that since this isn't a coastal hugger (it's sort of (still) a weak apps runner), the winds aloft will be from the south and there won't be the cold dry air advecting in from the north/northeast like we had on Monday, so there shouldn't be a lot of virga. We'll see...

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Keep in mind that different snowmaps use different algorithms and you can't really compare an IWM map for the GFS to the EuroWx map for the Euro. They both attempt to factor in ratios but the EuroWx maps eliminate accumulation when surface is above 32. I hate the WxBell maps because they take everything at 10:1 including sleet but at least there you can do apples to apples across models. In my opinion Euro isn't actually all that much of an outlier. We have a reasonable agreement among the models that snow comes in midday tomorrow and comes in hard. At some point there is a changeover. The exact details we probably won't know until they're happening

No the euro is more amped than the others hence why there is less snow. I totally expect it to catch on to the others as it has all year now.
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it will be nice to have a good snowfall during the day, on a weekend...kids and i can sled all afternoon, we can get a fire going afterward, and i can liberally apply scotch/bourbon/ale throughout relatively guilt-free...

 

Sounds good.  I'll be happy to just to sit back and watch the snow fall...while enjoying a nice hot beverage.

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Quick question. Why does the regular NWS snowmap show 4-6 inches in north central NJ and the maximum map show 5 inches. Wouldn't it logically show 6 inches. I know it's knit picking but just wondered how the max was calculated.

 

Looking at the time stamps on the maps, the only one that's 3:32 pm or later is the one posted here. The others are from 12:57 pm so they probably haven't been updated. (maybe).

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it will be nice to have a good snowfall during the day, on a weekend...kids and i can sled all afternoon, we can get a fire going afterward, and i can liberally apply scotch/bourbon/ale throughout relatively guilt-free...

 

looks like more O/T for me on Saturday/Sunday....

 

Mr_Plow.jpg

 

So our residents don't have to do this.....

 

BK7NT.jpg

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it will be nice to have a good snowfall during the day, on a weekend...kids and i can sled all afternoon, we can get a fire going afterward, and i can liberally apply scotch/bourbon/ale throughout relatively guilt-free...

 

So drunk sledding/playing w/fire with the kids...sounds fun. May as well bring the shotgun out and show the children how to shoot empty beer cans.... 

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Quick question. Why does the regular NWS snowmap show 4-6 inches in north central NJ and the maximum map show 5 inches. Wouldn't it logically show 6 inches. I know it's knit picking but just wondered how the max was calculated.

The snow probabilistic maps have now been updated.

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Wxsim with 18z GFS/NAM data for NW Chester County Pa

Similar story as before snow arrive by 1pm temp 16.3

Heavy Snow between 4 and 10pm with 7.3" of snow by 10pm

Heavy Snow mixed with IP by 1am with 10.5" of snow/sleet

then IP to ZR mix before ending by 7am

Temp rises to 27.6 by 7am

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