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Winter storm threat 2/21 - 2/22


JCT777

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32 surface at ABE and 0 850 south of Philly is not an ice setup for Philly and immediate burbs. If indeed that is what he meant with those numbers

Yeah, I wasn't sure if he meant it the way you stated or the other way around (above freezing at 850 and below freezing at the surface).  I've been hearing for days that upper levels will warm quicker than the surface.

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I saw something this morning, I thought it was in a Mt. Holly AFD, about thinking the atmosphere should moisten up quickly tomorrow due to the southerly flow. I looked for it just now but couldn't find it. Maybe it was my imagination?

 

Usually when the storms come up from the south hugging the coast, the "warmer" ocean temps would stream in.  But the timing might depend on whether the big high yields fast enough.

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Well that is depressing

What I've been seeing on quite a few model snow maps since yesterday is kind of a "snow hole" over most of Montgomery and Bucks counties (save for far NW potion of those counties).  In some cases, there's more snow west, southwest, north and northeast.  Kind of like the better snows extend up from the DC/Baltimore area to Chester County, skip us, then resume just above Trenton into the NW suburbs of NYC.  Not sure what's going on with that.  This particular snow map includes Chester county in the snow hole.

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Wxsim with 12z data has snow arriving in NW Chesco by 1pm with Heavy Snow between 7pm and midnight then some IP/Snow mix thru 1am by which point it shows about 10" of snow/IP (1.09" w.e.) then finishes off with 0.21" of ZR before ending by 8am temp tops out at 29.8 at that hour

 

12z Euro has

euro has 3" line ttn-pne-phl-middletown, de

4-6" in lv/poc/outer burbs/ and north of dyl-audubon- west chester line

1" dov-miv-egg harbor-southern mommouth co

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Wxsim with 12z data has snow arriving in NW Chesco by 1pm with Heavy Snow between 7pm and midnight then some IP/Snow mix thru 1am by which point it shows about 10" of snow/IP (1.09" w.e.) then finishes off with 0.21" of ZR before ending by 8am temp tops out at 29.8 at that hour

 

12z Euro has

euro has 3" line ttn-pne-phl-middletown, de

4-6" in lv/poc/outer burbs/ and north of dyl-audubon- west chester line

1" dov-miv-egg harbor-southern mommouth co

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 that is definitely not "caving" but hopefully the euro is still playing catch up

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Keep in mind that different snowmaps use different algorithms and you can't really compare an IWM map for the GFS to the EuroWx map for the Euro. They both attempt to factor in ratios but the EuroWx maps eliminate accumulation when surface is above 32. I hate the WxBell maps because they take everything at 10:1 including sleet but at least there you can do apples to apples across models. In my opinion Euro isn't actually all that much of an outlier. We have a reasonable agreement among the models that snow comes in midday tomorrow and comes in hard. At some point there is a changeover. The exact details we probably won't know until they're happening

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That map's title is 8 hr accumulated snow for 12z Sunday...which I believe would be from the period 11 pm Sat - 7 am Sun? And there should be decent accumulations in the prior 8-10 hours...a 24 hour snowfall map through 12z Sunday would be more informative I would think. Am I missing something?

 

 

He said the '4' in 48 is cut off.  Like the 'w' in snow is at the other end.  

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Keep in mind that different snowmaps use different algorithms and you can't really compare an IWM map for the GFS to the EuroWx map for the Euro. They both attempt to factor in ratios but the EuroWx maps eliminate accumulation when surface is above 32. I hate the WxBell maps because they take everything at 10:1 including sleet but at least there you can do apples to apples across models. In my opinion Euro isn't actually all that much of an outlier. We have a reasonable agreement among the models that snow comes in midday tomorrow and comes in hard. At some point there is a changeover. The exact details we probably won't know until they're happening

If you figure that the 10:1 ratio maps for the NAM and GFS have TTN at 3-4 inches and the Euromap  which usually has inflated snowfall totals has TTN at 1 inch I would still say it's an outlier.

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