JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 39hr, 32 line abe, 0 line south of philly Ice for Philly and immediate suburbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ECM folds like a cheap suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ECM folds like a cheap suit lol...can't say that I'm upset about it this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ice for Philly and immediate suburbs? 32 surface at ABE and 0 850 south of Philly is not an ice setup for Philly and immediate burbs. If indeed that is what he meant with those numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 32 surface at ABE and 0 850 south of Philly is not an ice setup for Philly and immediate burbs. If indeed that is what he meant with those numbers Yeah, I wasn't sure if he meant it the way you stated or the other way around (above freezing at 850 and below freezing at the surface). I've been hearing for days that upper levels will warm quicker than the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah, I wasn't sure if he meant it the way you stated or the other way around (above freezing at 850 and below freezing at the surface). I've been hearing for days that upper levels will warm quicker than the surface. Qtown - please clarify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 euro2-20-12Z.png Well that is depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I saw something this morning, I thought it was in a Mt. Holly AFD, about thinking the atmosphere should moisten up quickly tomorrow due to the southerly flow. I looked for it just now but couldn't find it. Maybe it was my imagination? Usually when the storms come up from the south hugging the coast, the "warmer" ocean temps would stream in. But the timing might depend on whether the big high yields fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Like most WAA driven storms, I am hoping for a front end thump, but not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ECM folds like a cheap suit Don't know if it really folded. Only gives TTN an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well that is depressing No idea if the euro is wrong but it seems to be an outlier right now. The mesoscale models would likely be the best to use at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well that is depressing What I've been seeing on quite a few model snow maps since yesterday is kind of a "snow hole" over most of Montgomery and Bucks counties (save for far NW potion of those counties). In some cases, there's more snow west, southwest, north and northeast. Kind of like the better snows extend up from the DC/Baltimore area to Chester County, skip us, then resume just above Trenton into the NW suburbs of NYC. Not sure what's going on with that. This particular snow map includes Chester county in the snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wxsim with 12z data has snow arriving in NW Chesco by 1pm with Heavy Snow between 7pm and midnight then some IP/Snow mix thru 1am by which point it shows about 10" of snow/IP (1.09" w.e.) then finishes off with 0.21" of ZR before ending by 8am temp tops out at 29.8 at that hour 12z Euro has euro has 3" line ttn-pne-phl-middletown, de 4-6" in lv/poc/outer burbs/ and north of dyl-audubon- west chester line 1" dov-miv-egg harbor-southern mommouth co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsfan18 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 euro2-20-12Z.png isnt' this only 8 hour accums at 12z sunday? meaning between 2z and 12z sunday? most of philly and NW snow comes saturday correct? Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wxsim with 12z data has snow arriving in NW Chesco by 1pm with Heavy Snow between 7pm and midnight then some IP/Snow mix thru 1am by which point it shows about 10" of snow/IP (1.09" w.e.) then finishes off with 0.21" of ZR before ending by 8am temp tops out at 29.8 at that hour 12z Euro has euro has 3" line ttn-pne-phl-middletown, de 4-6" in lv/poc/outer burbs/ and north of dyl-audubon- west chester line 1" dov-miv-egg harbor-southern mommouth co that is definitely not "caving" but hopefully the euro is still playing catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 isnt' this only 8 hour accums at 12z sunday? meaning between 2z and 12z sunday? most of philly and NW snow comes saturday correct? Am I missing something? It is 48 hrs. The 4 is cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well that is depressing Euro is still the outlier on this storm right now. Still think it is underestimating the cold air and over estimating the strength of the low as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Keep in mind that different snowmaps use different algorithms and you can't really compare an IWM map for the GFS to the EuroWx map for the Euro. They both attempt to factor in ratios but the EuroWx maps eliminate accumulation when surface is above 32. I hate the WxBell maps because they take everything at 10:1 including sleet but at least there you can do apples to apples across models. In my opinion Euro isn't actually all that much of an outlier. We have a reasonable agreement among the models that snow comes in midday tomorrow and comes in hard. At some point there is a changeover. The exact details we probably won't know until they're happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 euro2-20-12Z.png That map's title is 8 hr accumulated snow for 12z Sunday...which I believe would be from the period 11 pm Sat - 7 am Sun? And there should be decent accumulations in the prior 8-10 hours...a 24 hour snowfall map through 12z Sunday would be more informative I would think. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That map's title is 8 hr accumulated snow for 12z Sunday...which I believe would be from the period 11 pm Sat - 7 am Sun? And there should be decent accumulations in the prior 8-10 hours...a 24 hour snowfall map through 12z Sunday would be more informative I would think. Am I missing something? He said the '4' in 48 is cut off. Like the 'w' in snow is at the other end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Keep in mind that different snowmaps use different algorithms and you can't really compare an IWM map for the GFS to the EuroWx map for the Euro. They both attempt to factor in ratios but the EuroWx maps eliminate accumulation when surface is above 32. I hate the WxBell maps because they take everything at 10:1 including sleet but at least there you can do apples to apples across models. In my opinion Euro isn't actually all that much of an outlier. We have a reasonable agreement among the models that snow comes in midday tomorrow and comes in hard. At some point there is a changeover. The exact details we probably won't know until they're happening If you figure that the 10:1 ratio maps for the NAM and GFS have TTN at 3-4 inches and the Euromap which usually has inflated snowfall totals has TTN at 1 inch I would still say it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 He said the '4' in 48 is cut off. Like the 'w' in snow is at the other end. Thanks. Conveniently missed that post, probably due to snow goggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS update is out and no watches for Lehigh.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS update is out and no watches for Lehigh.. Sent from my iPhone Huh? My holly hasn't updated its forecast discussion since 1257. State college does the watches/warning for Lancaster on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Huh? My holly hasn't updated its forecast discussion since 1257. State college does the watches/warning for Lancaster on west. Normally 2:51 they do watches. The forecast was updated but that's it Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM looks decent for Eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Normally 2:51 they do watches. The forecast was updated but that's it Sent from my iPhone Warnings/advisories won't be out until the afternoon update which comes out typically between now and 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Warnings/advisories won't be out until the afternoon update which comes out typically between now and 4pm Ah 10-4 thanks Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ah 10-4 thanks Sent from my iPhone State college did their update at 3:10 and put warnings/advisories out so is expect them from my holly soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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