CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS blows James off the Cape with 60+kt winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lol Scott, is mixing extremely favorable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The GFS tends to overforecast mixing across the interior in the situations. But yes, I generally agree that the wind could be the biggest story with this storm for many areas. I just figured the SNE mets would be talking about it. It's actually stronger over the interior tun the coast for a time. But they haven't even mentioned it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The wind has been mentioned nine billion times today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The wind has been mentioned nine billion times today By me and Ginx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I wonder if you go HWW and Blizzard Warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Kevin there is no need for a HWW and a Blizzard Warning, since a Blizzard Warning covers both wind and snow impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I just figured the SNE mets would be talking about it. It's actually stronger over the interior tun the coast for a time. But they haven't even mentioned it I think because many are just trying to figure out how this will all play out. Seems like G 50-60 possible even inland..but IMO..it would be better to get mixing from the sun. I'm not sure that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think because many are just trying to figure out how this will all play out. Seems like G 50-60 possible even inland..but IMO..it would be better to get mixing from the sun. I'm not sure that will happen.We are talking during the storm. It snows most of the day. Heavy snows and damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS hurricane force wind gusts for Cape Cod: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The GFS tends to overforecast mixing across the interior in the situations. But yes, I generally agree that the wind could be the biggest story with this storm for many areas. Double up on the drift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We are talking during the storm. It snows most of the day. Heavy snows and damaging winds Best winds probably end of storm for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think based on the trends today we see 0z come in even better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm checking in on my phone here. What did the 18z have to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Apparently this is the Only time we had a Sub-500 ULL in these parts. January 31st, 1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 My Winter Weather Outlook for Southern New England, including the states of MA, RI and CT: Blizzard Watches up for coastal MA, Winter Storm Watches out for areas west of the Blizzard Watch. Winds will be very dangerous: gusts could reach 80mph along the coastline, especially Cape Ann and Cape Cod including Nantucket Blowing and drifting snows will make visibilities drop below and half mile Falling snow rates could reach 1-2, maybe 3"/hour in convective banding Temperatures will fall through the teens to the coastline with single digits likely in the interior and northern parts of MA in the afternoon of Sunday. Synoptic scale picture relays a potential intense upper level low pinwheeling throughout the region and to the south of the South Coast of SNE. This puts SNE in the bullseye for potential epic snowfall amounts for a duration of 24 hours. There are limiting factors to the potential overall ferocity of this blizzard, 1.) duration, 2.) potential intensification is too late to impact CT and dump heavy snowfall amounts over SNE. The intensification of the surface low occurs northeast of CHH, instead of south of ACK. This is a big deal towards where the comma head develops and dumps on the region. However models including the 18z suite favors a further southwest track of the upper level low favoring more snowfall in SNE, however the American models are still further north than the EURO at 12z this afternoon's run. So right now amounts of up to 18" would be found from Downeast ME to Boston, MA with 12"+ amounts from Boston, MA to Cape Cod, MA and 6"+ amounts west of ORH and 3" amounts the further northwest one travels and the further south one travels where there may be a rain/snow line for ACK. ACK amounts could reach 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS hurricane force wind gusts for Cape Cod: Instead of roofing shingles blowing off, there will be large sheaths of compacted roof snow tossed around like a salad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The current BOX thinking seems reasonable, Winter Storm Watches will likely go further SW if trends continue, but I don't think expanding Blizzard Watches west in MA is necessary (don't think vis. requirements will be met in interior SNE). Also I don't see much more than a foot in BOS proper without this getting going sooner/more digging than currently depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Double up on the drift?yeah, we're sitting ducks up on the hill with a strong north wind. Our building starts to shake when we approach G50kt which is not out of the question on Sunday. Drifts 6-10 ft at the office not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 yeah, we're sitting ducks up on the hill with a strong north wind. Our building starts to shake when we approach G50kt which is not out of the question on Sunday. Drifts 6-10 ft at the office not out of the question. You guys need a drift cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If this thing keeps trending/ticking southwest, then like others have said, it could become a whole new ballgame for alot of us. But right now, it's not a blizzard for most of us...yet? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We could see wind gusts approach 80-85mph near CHH and ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 My Winter Weather Outlook for Southern New England, including the states of MA, RI and CT: Blizzard Watches up for coastal MA, Winter Storm Watches out for areas west of the Blizzard Watch. Winds will be very dangerous: gusts could reach 80mph along the coastline, especially Cape Ann and Cape Cod including Nantucket Blowing and drifting snows will make visibilities drop below and half mile Falling snow rates could reach 1-2, maybe 3"/hour in convective banding Temperatures will fall through the teens to the coastline with single digits likely in the interior and northern parts of MA in the afternoon of Sunday. Synoptic scale picture relays a potential intense upper level low pinwheeling throughout the region and to the south of the South Coast of SNE. This puts SNE in the bullseye for potential epic snowfall amounts for a duration of 24 hours. There are limiting factors to the potential overall ferocity of this blizzard, 1.) duration, 2.) potential intensification is too late to impact CT and dump heavy snowfall amounts over SNE. The intensification of the surface low occurs northeast of CHH, instead of south of ACK. This is a big deal towards where the comma head develops and dumps on the region. However models including the 18z suite favors a further southwest track of the upper level low favoring more snowfall in SNE, however the American models are still further north than the EURO at 12z this afternoon's run. So right now amounts of up to 18" would be found from Downeast ME to Boston, MA with 12"+ amounts from Boston, MA to Cape Cod, MA and 6"+ amounts west of ORH and 3" amounts the further northwest one travels and the further south one travels where there may be a rain/snow line for ACK. ACK amounts could reach 8". Not bad James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If this keeps trending SW would it bring us fellas in NYC into the game? Most people in our thread are really downplaying this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If this keeps trending SW would it bring us fellas in NYC into the game? Most people in our thread are really downplaying this threat. As they should be for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Apparently this is the Only time we had a Sub-500 ULL in these parts. January 31st, 1966. January 31st, 1966 ULL Bottom.jpg That was the Blizzard of '66. It buried upstate NY in several feet of snow and paralyzed the region for a week. Between synoptic and lake effect Oswego received 103 inches of snow. Syracuse got 42.3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You guys need a drift cam.it might get drifted over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Apparently this is the Only time we had a Sub-500 ULL in these parts. January 31st, 1966. January 31st, 1966 ULL Bottom.jpg Are they THAAAAT rare? Almost 50 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 it might get drifted over. Nah, Ginxy would never let that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nah, Ginxy would never let that happen.The drifts in Gloucester and Hull are going to be off the hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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