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President's Day Weekend 2015 Storm Potential 2/14-2/15


bluewave

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ur just guessing there. The trend here is for a bigger and snowier storm. GFS will come around especially the fact that it already showed a monster inverted trough just yesterday. We are inside of 100 hours or less and we are sitting at a good seat sort of speak and let this thing really play out. Isotherm made me happy when we mentioned the east coast blocking and a -1 NAO could only slow this amplification down and really build the heights as soon as the storm goes offshore. Like yanksfan said we want this thing to really dig and turn just south of Atlantic city!

The ensemble mean has the 500mb low over northern New Jersey. It can't take that track if you want a meaningful snowstorm for our area, it has to go significantly south like isentropic said, as in 100 miles or more
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More AO blocking would have ended up very close to the 1978 UL track moving to our south first.

http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/feb58_1978_500_loop.gif

This is the AO forecast for today.. Rather significant change from yesterday. It's looking to trend her negative. This could get the job done..

Edit : I don't know why the picture won't load but here is the link : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

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Let's just already say we get a few snow showers while SNE and Boston get 1-2'. I think it's pretty clear by now how things are setting up. 

Looks like your one tenth of an inch call will not verify .

Boston is the easier call here as they are likely to be on the receiving end of another Blizzard and a very cold one at that  .

If people just temper their expectations then a nice 4 to 6 inch storm is on the table .

 

No need to go big , the guidance does not suggest it yet .

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Looks like your one tenth of an inch call will not verify .

Boston is the easier call here as they are likely to be on the receiving end of another Blizzard and a very cold one at that .

If people just temper their expectations then a nice 4 to 6 inch storm is on the table .

No need to go big , the guidance does not suggest it yet .

One thing seems certain, we will definitely see more than snow showers saturday as it stands at the moment
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There is no certainty we are getting a 4-6 inch snow...haven't people learned their lesson..it could easily be an inch...stop the model hugging and ratio talk and lets get a consecutive run of model consensus before we jump on anything

I am so NOT shocked that you missed the entire point of tempering expectations .

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No one is nor should anyone attach numbers 4 days out . The post was think small , The Euro and GEM had more but the smarter way to look at this is to ignore what Boston will get as their set up is much more favorable than ours and just  tempers ones expectations then you will not find 50 posts yelling bust , if this breaks down .

 

If you think 4 and get 2 , ok it happens . If one is hoping that 12 is going to pop up and it does not then the groaning that will go on will be to much to take.

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