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Superbowl Snowstorm Thread Part 3


TugHillMatt

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Any new thoughts on the lake effect potential? I keep hoping to see some model explicitly hang up the band but not really seeing it so far. Can't imagine what kind of totals there might be at the southern end of the lake if it's not as transient.

Well haven't looked at soundings since I left work but the earlier NAM runs were a bit more marginal with inversion heights. Still strong convergence and omega should hit the DGZ at least a bit. FWIW, looking at LE parameters on the 00z IWX WRF, if a nice single band can get going Monday morning like it shows, it would suggest that the band slowly pivots from NE IL to NW IN. Question would be how intense is the band due to suboptimal inversion heights. At this point, I think there's gonna be a halfway decent lake band thanks to the strong convergence. We've seen convergence overcome marginal delta TS and ELs before. May not need it to be super intense to add up because ratios will be really high by then.
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Never updated my call for LAF so here goes.  The slight warming trend has me concerned and I think 5-7" is a better call than 7-10".  That being said, lower confidence than usual as that southern gradient is nasty so there's some potential error either way.  Looks like it could rip pretty good for a while during the day.  Observational trends tomorrow will be key.

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HRW-NMM still quite juiced through 36hrs.  The more conservative ARW is as well.

hrw-nmm_conus_038_precip_p36.gifhrw-arw_conus_037_precip_p36.gif

 

Wow, both showing 1.25-1.50" of QPF right along the lakeshore from Milwaukee south.  With the ratios expected, that could be 18" here, borderline unbelievable if this could come close to verifying considering my low expectations for this storm just a couple days ago.

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Wow, both showing 1.25-1.50" of QPF right along the lakeshore from Milwaukee south.  With the ratios expected, that could be 18" here, borderline unbelievable if this could come close to verifying considering my low expectations for this storm just a couple days ago.

 

Well there's a shocker.

 

Rinse, wash, repeat.

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Well there's a shocker.

 

Rinse, wash, repeat.

 

With all due respect, I hadn't seen a 6" storm since December of 2013, and those were right near the 6" mark.  A bit of a drought for typical expectations (not quite Cyclone levels though), and given the trends of most storms this year, the power to be optimistic was not there.

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I was wondering about this myself. I feel like, outside of the storm warnings, they don't hold much merit to this one.

? Theyre forecasting a foot. Surely they'll up amounts with the morning package. If you want play by play, the NWS is the wrong place to look. Thats what this board is for.

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You can tell our warm air issues are over, as even with these relatively light returns the snow is coming down quite nicely.  All evening we had pretty good radar returns overhead, but even when it was all snow the intensity was pretty meh.  The event is definitely starting to take off now for here.  Should really get into some nice rates from midnight through 7-8am.  

 

My first call yesterday afternoon was for 8-11" here, then bumped it down to 5-8" after noticing our potential mixing issues.  Bumped that back up to 8-11" late last evening again after gaining confidence that good rates following the mixing issues would help out.  I'm still riding the 8-11" call, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get close to a foot.

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