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Post super bowl storm Model discussion


UlsterCountySnowZ

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I jus don't see how this is going to cut this far north. CAD & 50/50 are not being picked up well enough on the models. They are struggling. Time will tell

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It doesn't make sense. The confluence should theoretically force the low to redevelop East, further South.
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If this does go over to plain rain or even sleet, there is going to be one hell of a freeze afterwards. Many areas on the east end still have over 2' of snow, now add rain to that then freeze... Not good. 

 

Won't be good for flat top commercial roofs especially in Suffolk which got over 20" the other day

if the current snowpack soaks up any rain.

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It doesn't make sense. The confluence should theoretically force the low to redevelop East, further South.

to be fair most of us thought there was convective feedback when the models pulled the last storm east except for the euro...it is what it is i doubt all the models are underestamating

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Its likely overdone, the UKMET agrees with the GFS and moves the low out quicker, the GEM keeps it much further south off the coast longer

just a question is this going to be a coup for the ukmet or did it have the low even further north than this?

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Its likely overdone, the UKMET agrees with the GFS and moves the low out quicker, the GEM keeps it much further south off the coast longer

 

The UKMET is even more amplified and takes the trough neg tilt a few hours faster than the GFS.

That scenario would be a problem for commercial roofs out in Suffolk which picked up over 20"

the other day. The east based block only works for less amplified systems like the models

showed yesterday.

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The UKMET is even more amplified and takes the trough neg tilt a few hours faster than the GFS.

That scenario would be a problem for commercial roofs out in Suffolk which picked up over 20"

the other day. The east based block only works for less amplified systems like the models

showed yesterday.[/quote

Big change of tune from yesterday. The negative tilt earlier on the models can't be ignored. I still don't think we rain in the city as that cold air will be extremely hard to scour out. This could be a serious ice issue for many.

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The old GFS was usually too warm in strong CAD set ups like this one and ran the lows too far into the cold air.

This will be a big test for the new model since we don't have any experience yet with the upgrade. It will be

interesting to see what the 12z Euro has.

 

I only really follow model output, as I have never learned true meteorology; however, I've done some work with computational fluid dynamics models for small chemical reaction systems that utilize very similar models as in meteorology - and one thing we'd always do any time we updated a model was to do a reality check and run old data sets with the updated models to see how it behaved, including whether any known biases continued or were improved or if new biases had crept in.  Obviously, with any upgraded model one would want to see it score better than the previous model vs. existing data sets with past inputs - otherwise there would be no point in upgrading.  

 

So, my question is whether the NCEP knows, at least based on the new GFS's performance with previous storm situations, whether the GFS still has reduced/eliminated the WAA bias you mentioned.  Also, just curious if they still run the old GFS in parallel with the new one to see how they compare when the outcomes aren't actually known.  Thanks for any insight anyone can provide.  

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The UKMET is even more amplified and takes the trough neg tilt a few hours faster than the GFS.

That scenario would be a problem for commercial roofs out in Suffolk which picked up over 20"

the other day. The east based block only works for less amplified systems like the models

showed yesterday.[/quote

Big change of tune from yesterday. The negative tilt earlier on the models can't be ignored. I still don't think we rain in the city as that cold air will be extremely hard to scour out. This could be a serious ice issue for many.

 

That east based block just can't handle a faster negative tilt like the 12z GFS and UKMET are showing. 

We need a weaker and less amplified system to make this work without a solid west based block.

 

Yesterday

 

 

Today

 

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