• Member Statistics

    15,882
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LanaM
    Newest Member
    LanaM
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Morris

Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Recommended Posts

Several have stated output from the short-term models and the changes in the NAM ... along with the lack of the westwards progress of the mesoscale bands. All together, this would at least be cause for concern at this point, but not calling it a "bust".

I said not everyone uses objective evidence.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I swear...people seem to want a long duration storm ahead of time, then when it starts they want the whole thing to play out in the first few hours and throw in the towel if they don't get instant gratification.

second that. please temper your emotions folks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not everyone uses objective evidence, they are frustrated and indicate that they have basically given up for no good reason.  If someone describes in detail why he thinks it will bust then he wouldnt be a downer.

 

Not everyone uses objective evidence, they are frustrated and indicate that they have basically given up for no good reason.  If someone describes in detail why he thinks it will bust then he wouldnt be a downer.

You don't need detail when you have highly regarded pros saying the same thing. If several doctors say you don't have appendicitis, do you ask them to prove every little detail? Or do you assume that educated professionals know what they are talking about?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NYC, here it comes. Huge band entering Queens now and continuing west. Expanding on the east side as well in Nassau. My brother just texted me and said it's a complete whiteout at home.

 

Gun to my head, I'll say Central Park finishes with 15-16" counting the snow from this AM, and JFK about 20". Nassau County 20-24", east of the Sagtikos 24"+. EWR 13", MMU 8", Trenton 7", Philly 4". 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1032 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND

MASSACHUSETTS

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 270432Z - 270900Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP/EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...04 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG

ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...EXTENDING EASTWARD

OVER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ARCTIC

HIGH...A LOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 STATUTE MILES SOUTHEAST OF

NEW YORK CITY WAS RAPIDLY DEEPENING /AS EVIDENCED BY 03 UTC 2-HOUR

PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 7MB AT BUOY NUMBER 44008 SOUTHEAST OF

NANTUCKET/. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A STRONG PRESSURE

GRADIENT WAS ALREADY IN PLACE...AND WILL ONLY INTENSIFY AS THE

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

REGION ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS /WITH GUSTS NEARING 50

KNOTS ALONG THE COAST/ WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC THETA-E ADVECTION AND

FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF SNOW IN

EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE INCREASING LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC

FRONTOGENESIS...BANDING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROADER SNOW AREA WILL

PROMOTE SNOW RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...LOCALLY

APPROACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR...OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF

STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING SNOW RATES WILL RESULT IN

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF

PROLONGED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND

NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND NORTHWARD INTO

THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can any mets chime in how much longer this window is open for it to move west? It really looks like it's trying to and cold air is diminishing its run. But some extremely heavy bands look like they are about to make their way onto the jersey shore. Does this thing have the potential time to keep loopdelopping back around?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As of 04z, 11pm no but wasn't modeled to yet... around 2-4am but if it does soon the better.   Looks like it wants to but still could be a few hrs. 

 

post-1996-0-61073700-1422333762_thumb.pn

 

H5 closed?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

March 2001 type busts incoming if the 00z GFS even comes close to verifying. 

The GFS whipped the Euros ass with this one and it deserves its props!  Clearly NYC and points N&W have pretty much seen what their going to see unless this banding retrograding into NYC form the East changes things so we wait but I think its a run of the mill system for NYC proper and points S&W.  NYC is too damn close to throw in the towel just yet!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Miller Bs generally are good to you guys.

A low coming over Atlanta, thru central SC, eastern NC and east of Norfolk is what does us good and very often you also.

Miller Bs disappoint around DC 80% of the time.  I am actually happy with my 2.3"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Joe Cioffi's take:

Here is the issue with regards to this storm. The upper air storms has closed off at every level except at 500MB (18000FT). The european model has closed off this circulation faster than any other model If that happens then big snows will occur everywhere from Southern New Jersey northward. However the loop here shows that it has not happened yet. Look at the coastline near New York City. Just south of us there is the the upper storm trying to form. If it closes off in the next few hours then heavy snows will back westward into Western New Jersey. If it takes longer than heavy snows will back westward to about New York City.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You don't need detail when you have highly regarded pros saying the same thing. If several doctors say you don't have appendicitis, do you ask them to prove every little detail? Or do you assume that educated professionals know what they are talking about?

That isnt the same thing as that has more certainty/clarity.  Many areas are still in the game so throwing in the towel that early makes no sense at this juncture.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1141 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

NJZ006-103-104-106-NYZ067>075-176-178-270645-
BRONX-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER-ORANGE-PUTNAM-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-ROCKLAND-SOUTHERN
QUEENS-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-WESTERN BERGEN-
1141 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL ENTER NEW YORK CITY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

AT 1135 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A HEAVY SNOW BAND ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DANBURY
CONNECTICUT TO PORT CHESTER NEW YORK TO WOODMERE NEW YORK...AND
MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH...AND VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE EXPECTED...
PRODUCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

$

GOODMAN

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS whipped the Euros ass with this one and it deserves its props! Clearly NYC and points N&W have pretty much seen what their going to see unless this banding retrograding into NYC form the East changes things so we wait but I think its a run of the mill system for NYC proper and points S&W. NYC is too damn close to throw in the towel just yet!!!

Nyc east is fine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This band really is the wildcard here.... depending how far west it gets will mean a lot.   NAM had intense 700mb panels right near the NJ shore into NYC for a couple runs... may be this is it.   fingers crossed. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That isnt the same thing as that has more certainty/clarity.  Many areas are still in the game so throwing in the towel that early makes no sense at this juncture.  

Well I agree this is a big area, but there are many sections in this subforum where they can call it a day. Some are seeing the moon through the clouds. I like the discussion Joe Cioffi gave above. Thre is still some time for marginal areas in Union and Middlesex counties but the window is closing. And, it's not the end of the world in any case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.