Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 actually it's looking better and gettin the idea...from 42 to 51 hours. noice. sleepy time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Absolutely crushing. Damn, that's nice. Sign me up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 actually it's looking better and gettin the idea...from 42 to 51 hours. noice. it gets LI and SNE, and also drops a 2nd wave of precip down by DC, fairly significant. definitely a different look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't feel 100% comfortable for us yet. I mean I think 4-7" type snows are a lock from Philly and NE, but a 12" event I still probably only have 60% confidence until we see more support & the 12z EURO Shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I don't feel 100% comfortable for us yet. I mean I think 4-7" type snows are a lock from Philly and NE, but a 12" event I still probably only have 60% confidence until we see more support & the 12z EURO Shows it. I'd like to see some other model besides the Euro have 12 plus, rather than just the Euro for the 4th straight run (although that would be nice too). In fairness, the GFS was pretty close too. I think once you are talking about NYC and East it is pretty close to a lock that they are going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 6z GFS holds serve nearly identical to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 6 z gfs - big snows Philly metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Mt. Holly's new worst case scenario is... biblical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Mt. Holly's new worst case scenario is... biblical... http://www.weather.gov/images/phi /winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Basically the euro model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 6 z gfs - big snows Philly metro The reliable models are trending towards a version of DT's solution. His ego might head to Mars if his forecast verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Low track is further north and east than 12Z. Still a big hit... not as big. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think we all expected that bullseye to shift NE and would all be over joyed by the EuroWx maps amounts 24" mark kissing northeast Philly and southern Bucks. But the SW quadrants of Miller B's are full of heartbreak. 12z tomorrow should tell the tale with final sampling on the West Coast. I will be in Cape May and Atlantic City Monday-Tuesday so I fully expect a shafting down there while Bucks County gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 6 z gfs - big snows Philly metro6-12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sorry not a downer but rather a realist looking at the current pattern and the realization we are tangling with a Miller B storm here...my thoughts truly think we know much much better by 12z tomorrow that cut off has very concerned in my opinion with the NAO+ no true blocking think the 15-25" stuff is around NYC and that sharp cut off is around PHL....it's a Miller B typically you need that blocking to slow this down. what in the NAO has changed from our storm that moved through fast on Friday night? The progressive flow of this pattern has me concerned...we will now truly put my -NAO theory in this pattern to the test...notice I said this pattern and not historically. From coastal DC 2" Baltimore 2-4" Delco 5-7" PHL 5-8" Bensalem 6-12" TTN 8-12" NYC 15"+ Boston 24" as I see it now fear the models back offe super concerned in this pattern. patterns not that progressive...theres a 50/50 low in place that acts as a -nao...i really hope you guys get hit hard too and i think you will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 patterns not that progressive...theres a 50/50 low in place that acts as a -nao...i really hope you guys get hit hard too and i think you will That 50/50 o think is the thing that makes this all work out I hope it's the thing I am hoping and hanging my hat on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looking for a 30-50 mile jog west to bring more of the cwa into the good stuff. Water vapor is impressive currently. That is a potent shortwave for a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not much info on the clipper part for tonight in the Berks area. Would there be an advisory for tonight along side of the watch or one big warning for everything? Are we still supposed to get a few inches tonight and tomorrow before the big stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Brace yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Not much info on the clipper part for tonight in the Berks area. Would there be an advisory for tonight along side of the watch or one big warning for everything? Are we still supposed to get a few inches tonight and tomorrow before the big stuff? if you read the afd this morning from Mt Holly they explained why no advisory for tonight, they did not want to divert attention from the overall scope of the storm Mon-Tue, they are calling for 2-3 near Reading for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Any Miller Bs ever work out well out here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 This will be a great opportunity for me to test out my new gopro. I think I'll do a time lapse video of my back yard. I'll post it here after the carnage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Isn't anyone concerned with the 6z Nam run storm far off shore...just like the Euro can't be ignored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Isn't anyone concerned with the 6z Nam run storm far off shore...just like the Euro can't be ignored I don't remember the last time people didn't ignore the NAM for any storm the last 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Isn't anyone concerned with the 6z Nam run storm far off shore...just like the Euro can't be ignored It's the nam on an off run. At least for me in TTN I'm not to worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Closer to a capture this run tho. Anyone want to venture any early guesses for Wildwood/Cape May? Im guessing I will be too far south and might get screwed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Watches are up. Blizzard watch on LI. Don't say this often but I'm VERY jealous of all of you closer to the coast. Looks decent out this way, maybe we can rope this thing in a bit closer to the coast in crunch time. Good luck all! http://www.weather.gov/phi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Sref much closer to coast and wetter. Over 12" PHL looking on this phone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Latest Wxsim program using the 6z GFS/NAM combined (No Euro input) - for the NW Chester County area Light snow arrives by 1230am temp 31.7 4am Mod snow temp 28.0 (1.6") 7am Mod snow temp 27.3 (2.6") 10am Mod snow temp 27.1 (3.7") 1pm light snow temp 27.1 (4.3") 4pm light snow temp 26.9 (4.8") 7pm light snow temp 25.8 (5.2") 930pm Mod snow temp 25.3 (5.3") 1230am (Tues) Heavy snow 24.6 (6.4") 4am Heavy Snow temp 23.6 (11.0") 7am Heavy Snow temp 23.1 (13.0") 10am Moderate Snow temp 22.7 (15.0") Ends toward 130 pm with snow total at 15.5" Snow arrives again on Thursday afternoon with another 4" of snow by early Friday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Positive changes on the NAM so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Latest SREF plumes for TTN http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150125&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=TTN&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=39.92422206902769&mLON=-74.53784621582031&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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