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ineedsnow

Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

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Harv seemed pretty subdued over this event...even implying that the follow up storm maybe more significant.

 

 

Tomorrow is the day to start hyping it if it's going to happen as a warning event or better.

 

There's still a lot of stuff that can go wrong in this.

 

 

00z GGEM looks SE of 12z...though not a shock considering it was the most amped of the solutions at 12z.

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So cmc is still west outlier pending euro. Inside bm. Snow to taint back to pounding snow verbatim on this run.

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I hope he's not riding the new GFS.

Well he could. Except for s couple of mets on this forum I consider him one of the best. I've bern watching him since the late 70s when tv was the only source of info.

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Well he could. Except for s couple of mets on this forum I consider him one of the best. I've bern watching him since the late 70s when tv was the only source of info.

Harv's not riding the gfs. He's bg appropriately cautious still 3 days out. He knows the deal with gfs and he's arguably the dean of the ocm in New England.

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I'd take that ukmet in a heartbeat. Temperatures cold enough?

Only have the meteograms out, BOS is fine(Warmest 850 gets is -2, surface is 32 the entire event) as is BDL(-3 and 30 respectively), don't know about anywhere else yet. 

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Harv's not riding the gfs. He's bg appropriately cautious still 3 days out. He knows the deal with gfs and he's arguably the dean of the ocm in New England.

Yes. One of the best. I do think he explained how fickle this weekend deal is. You and I are not far as the crow flies but could be worlds apart in what we ultimately get.

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GFS inists on a total miss for almost all of NE this weekend.  Yet most seem to ignore this fact.

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GFS inists on a total miss for almost all of NE this weekend. Yet most seem to ignore this fact.

Its by itself on the eastern side of other guidance....and the recent upgrade is suspect....wait another 30 for the Euro

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People only see what they want to see. Being a statistician I struggle with how models are just disregarded? All data points must be accounted unless they are considered outliers though data is needed for this. The way I see all of these models are probability and that means no data point can be thrown out. Also all probability is calculated by known and probable variables which creates algorithms to give you these datapoints. So unless someone can tell me without bias why one model is better than the other no data point can be thrown out. All of these models are sampling the same data so the difference is the algorithm. Which means all data should be analyzed and proofs should be used to determine the validity of the data.

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It's drier though because there's a couple of weak vorts on the NW edge of the precip shield as a result of the phase not being great and as a result it acts as subsidence and kills the precip shield to the west, no good CCB either until it's pulling out(clips 495 east) really which means it's pretty warm. Verbatim most of SNE east of say ORH or south of BOS is +0 to +0.3 at 850 at the height of it, but it's showing a strong dynamic cooling signal towards the center of the bands and I think it would probably be an isothermal paste job verbatim, hard to know for sure though. Everyone goes to snow at the end and eastern areas(East of 128 say) grab 3-6"+ then.

 

1" QPF line is HVN to the NE corner of MA. 1.5" is SERI to Scott, 2"+ on the cape. 

Snowfall is 3-6" for most of CT. 6" line runs from south of Steve  north to the MA/CT border and then turns NE and clips the corner of SENH, then it goes down the coast to south of Scooter before turning WSW back to CT. 10" line is Scooter to TAN to extreme NE RI to Newburyport. Boston proper jackpot verbatim with 12" even.

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GGEM likes metro boston down to interior SE mass for highest totals. 6-10"

Starting to think 12" will be the exception rather than the rule, if this does happen.

Reading SR post above,euro distribution does not sound all that different from the GGEM

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