Mophstymeo Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Maximum Potential Accumulation Experimental[/size] SnowAmt90Prcntl.png http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter Would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I would take 3-4 in a heartbeat , however me thinks we're looking at a C-2" situation for NYC metro, with perhaps a little more off to our west.. Sure, I'll get jumped on for that but the good news is we only have to wait two days for verification one way or another My thinking hasn't changed much. Given the guidance (excluding the NAM and the RPM), this system probably won't generate a lot of precipitation. Something between 0.05" in and around NYC to 0.15" in parts of the area (probably a portion of western NJ and Long Island) seems reasonable right now. All said, it still looks like a 1" to possibly 3" event in most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 My thinking hasn't changed much. Given the guidance (excluding the NAM and the RPM), this system probably won't generate a lot of precipitation. Something between 0.05" in and around NYC to 0.15" in parts of the area (probably a portion of western NJ and Long Island) seems reasonable right now. All said, it still looks like a 1" to possibly 3" event in most of the area. A typical clipper. I will take this in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Snow showers on the 12z Nam for the area.Weaker and further south.It's not further south . It gets strung out and weaker. Doesn't deepen fast enough so the result is there is less precip. There's .10 to .20 from the city on to long island. Don't analyze please . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I don't believe ..any models ..at the moment ..will try and look for trends ..if one arises ..hopefully by Tue 12z suite and oz ..things become more clear .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's not further south . It gets strung out and weaker. Doesn't deepen fast enough so the result is there us less precip. There's .10 to .20 from the city on to long island. Don't analyze please . The low is weaker and further south. There is precip enhancement for the area. Looks like 1-3 inches on the run for the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 09z SREF individuals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 it's not a very cold clipper like the last one that passed thru...temperatures are forecast to bottom out in the low 20's in KNYC after the storm...this might be on a better track for us...I'll take 1-3" at this point...Tomorrow we could be looking at 2-4" or flurries...TWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I am a little confused on this one. The column of air over NYC is minimal at best and so a 10:1 ratio seems plausible. IPS chart gives us just .03" of liquid equivalent. How do we get 3" --- 4" of snow from this? I am not being a kill-joy and I love the snow, just don't like false hope in a stinky snow season like this one is and will continue to be till QBO starts to behave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Flurries for NYC on the GFS with more precip to the south of the area towards NJ and Philly. Wow these models are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The 12z GFS has about 0.05" for far southern areas and basically nothing North of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 The 12z GFS has about 0.05" for far southern areas and basically nothing North of 80. It's more than that. I've seeing over 0.25" for southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's more than that. I've seeing over 0.25" for southern NJ. SNJ gets more than what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hes talking about southern areas of THIS subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Hes talking about southern areas of THIS subforum. Yes, SNJ is part of the Philly forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 1/19 12z GFS QPF: ACY: 0.35" BDR: None BLM: 0.19" FOK: 0.03" HPN: None ISP: 0.04" JFK: 0.06" LGA: 0.05" MMU: 0.07" NYC: 0.05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Well coating to at Very most an inch ...a safe call right now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 1/19 12z GFS QPF: ACY: 0.35" BDR: None BLM: 0.19" FOK: 0.03" HPN: None ISP: 0.04" JFK: 0.06" LGA: 0.05" MMU: 0.07" NYC: 0.05" Is it possible to get these specific QPF outputs on TropicalTidbits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 So on the good side, the global model has gotten wetter overall...the GFS has never been a particularly good model for discerning QPF...its become almost NGM like in its aridity recently...and being non mesoscale...placement has never been its long suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Is it possible to get these specific QPF outputs on TropicalTidbits? Unfortunately, it isn't. Perhaps one might suggest it to Levi Cohen that text data be added to the site? Regardless, the site is outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Unfortunately, it isn't. Perhaps one might suggest it to Levi Cohen that text data be added to the site? Regardless, the site is outstanding.I agree. The site seems amazing especially that it's offered for free. I'm new to the site and I'm still learning how to navigate it so I didn't know if I was just missing the text outputs. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm This is the best site I've found to get text data from model outputs. http://leonardo.met.tamu.edu/Weather_Interface/index.php Texas A&M is ok too but NAM only goes out to 48. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/ Meteostar is good for GFS text. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Plymouth state is good as well, go down to individual soundings on the left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Looks good for me ( CN ) . I am in this subforum . However I expect that to correct N . The GFS is deepening the polar wave at 60 and flattens the flow so the Arctic SW gets strung out . Could be typical GFS bias of deepening the wave that`s too far east . I still like 1 to 3 across most of the area . We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Is it possible to get these specific QPF outputs on TropicalTidbits? Some PA numbers: ABE: 0.19" AVP: 0.13" DUJ: 0.31" IPT: 0.29" JST: 0.42" MDT: 0.28" PHL: 0.31" PIT: 0.36" PNE: 0.26" RDG: 0.23" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm This is the best site I've found to get text data from model outputs. http://leonardo.met.tamu.edu/Weather_Interface/index.php Texas A&M is ok too but NAM only goes out to 48. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/ Meteostar is good for GFS text. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Plymouth state is good as well, go down to individual soundings on the left Some PA numbers: ABE: 0.19" AVP: 0.13" DUJ: 0.31" IPT: 0.29" JST: 0.42" MDT: 0.28" PHL: 0.31" PIT: 0.36" PNE: 0.26" RDG: 0.23" Thanks for the info!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ECMWF!!!!! (How does it look?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ECMWF!!!!! (How does it look?) NG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ECMWF!!!!! (How does it look?) dryer than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 1.5 in CNJ . Hence NG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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