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Hoosier

January 11-12 Snow/Mixed Precip

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Congrats Lambton County! And this model sort of shows the downsloping effect north of Toronto, while the 6z NAM has the whole length of the east side of the escarpment getting screwed. NAM really was the only model to pick up on that qpf minima with the previous clipper and with a 210-240 flow it's hard not to want to run with it again.

 

Agree... the canadian suite tends to overestimate QPF on the eastern side of the escarpment when the flow is clearly unsupportive of this development. It's also a read flag when only 2/23 of the traditionally aggressive SREF members are over 2" for YYZ. The HRRR is usually pretty good and it does look to be leaning north though the ceiling is only so high under a SW flow.

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It looks like the NAM is underestimating the strength of the final Fronto band that could develop from ~DTW-Goderich-Lake Simcoe area. 650/850/700 frontogenesis begin to converge as the band pulls SE tomorrow morning between ~12-16z and yet the model QPF output is fairly dry. This band should be more impressive IMO.

 

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fwiw the last two SREF cycles the mean has been 0.32" by 12z here, with another 0.04" or 0.05" slowly accumulating by 06z Tue.  Interesting to note since the NAM came in drier at 12z.

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12z 4km NAM almost all ZR here, though shuts us out on precip.

 

Regular 12z NAM hits us with some zr, though amounts are pretty weak. Hoosier should be pumped. He's been secretly pulling for that scenario all along.

 

12z RGEM p-type maps make the event basically all that other stuff.

 

 All that being said, seems temps are overachieving to an extent. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

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I will wait until after the 12z runs tomorrow (and when the SPC mesoanalysis/radar will be more helpful), but I'm leaning towards bumping my initial call to 3-5"...

 

My final call for DEtroit will be 2-4"...

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Regular 12z NAM hits us with some zr, though amounts are pretty weak. Hoosier should be pumped. He's been secretly pulling for that scenario all along.

 

12z RGEM p-type maps make the event basically all that other stuff.

 

 All that being said, seems temps are overachieving to an extent. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

Really hoping that there is a big enough shift in the ice area.  So my flight can get out tomorrow morning. :scooter:

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Really hoping that there is a big enough shift in the ice area.  So my flight can get out tomorrow morning. :scooter:

 

I'm sure you'll be fine. Enjoy the trip. :)

 

12z RGEM total QPF. Juicier for central IN versus the GFS and NAM. But again, it takes most of the area above freezing...including LAF. On the snow side of things, it has a weenie finger for Alek...so congrats go to him.

 

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IWX issued a WWA for their extreme southeastern counties. Also changed those outlooks to wintry mix instead of all snow. Interested to see how this plays out. Wasn't expecting the ice/mix line to go this far north...

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My final call for DEtroit will be 2-4"...

good call.

 

For DTW, the NAM went drier (0.22") while the SREF went a bit wetter (mean 0.29"). GFS & RGEM both appear to be around 0.25", maybe a hundredth or two below that on the GFS and above that on the RGEM.

 

Its all going to depend on ratios. I would say a solid forecast would be 2-3" with up to 4" in the best banding (wherever that sets up). Thats based on not-too-great ratios. If we can fluff it up a bit, thats all the better. With our current snowpack in place we will have nickeled and dimed our way to quite a nice snowpack in a weeks time without aid of any big storms smile.png

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good call.

 

For DTW, the NAM went drier (0.22") while the SREF went a bit wetter (mean 0.29"). GFS & RGEM both appear to be around 0.25", maybe a hundredth or two below that on the GFS and above that on the RGEM.

 

Its all going to depend on ratios. I would say a solid forecast would be 2-3" with up to 4" in the best banding (wherever that sets up). Thats based on not-to-great ratios. If we can fluff it up a bit, thats all the better. With our current snowpack in place we will have nickeled and dimed our way to quite a nice snowpack in a weeks time without aid of any big storms smile.png

 

Thanks.

 

And even with the bolded, these frontogenesis bands typically overachieve. 

 

Not only that, but it won't take much of a NW shift to put us in higher QPF (which does happen with these systems).

 

So I still wouldn't rule out amounts higher than 4".

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29*F at DET and 27*F at DTW right now (forecast called for a high of 27*F). Dewpoints still in the mid teens though (they stopped their rise for now).

 

Had a few peeks of sun this morning, but otherwise it's been mostly overcast.

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Up to 33 IMBY.. 

 

:maphot:

 

This might be turning into a "LAF special" for us in central Indiana. :D

 

Up to 32˚ here now. I was kidding earlier, but 40˚ looks achievable on my lame a** thermometer.

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15z HRRR isn't doing terribly with surface temps at 16z...outside of that wrong cold pocket around HUF and just to the west.

 

 

 

Once precipitation starts, it cools temps to below freezing in central Indiana...though up here, not much QPF through 4z Monday. So we'll see.

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:maphot:

 

This might be turning into a "LAF special" for us in central Indiana. :D

 

Up to 32˚ here now. I was kidding earlier, but 40˚ looks achievable on my lame a** thermometer.

 

Who started this thread?  I vote Thundersnow starts the rest of the storm threads this year, he's on a roll!  This thing is starting to look messy for our area for sure, widespread pinger purgatory and maybe even non freezing liquid at this rate. I'm starting to lose my precious weenie snow pack and it's not even noon.  So much for my thinking the eastern ridge was gonna lose out, it's actually expanding some helping to drive the warm air farther north.  I'll shut up, go crawl back into my cave and wait for hurricane season  :bag:

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nothing to see here....at least from CMH south.   Really think ILN could wipe about a third of their southern tier counties out of the advisory.   According to the NAM it's primarily a start to finish light rain event....and very borderline on the gfs.   True, surfaces are cold, we'll see how well that keeps the icing alive.   

 

by the way...it's amazing how warm 25 degrees feels after the temps we've just had.

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I'm thinking 1-2" of SN/IP and 0.1-0.2" of ZR for LAF.

 

 

Soundings on most models seem more sleety to me so I'm not convinced we pull off that amount of ice but it's a close one.  It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.  Wondering if the best icing may end up just north of IND proper.

 

Final call for LAF:  2-3" snow/sleet, 0.1" or less zr....and hopefully not any plain rain  :P

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