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hurricaneman

2015 ENSO super thread

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Nobody is banking on a -NAO winter. The white flag is flying until proven otherwise (in real time and not model land). 

 

 

Don, great graphic. Love it. While the enso regions have distinct similarities to 97-98, the npac doesn't. Still many months away from knowing how that will look come game time but the +PDO is really asserting itself right now. If we can maintain the +anoms closer to the NA coast along with solid cold anoms west of there we may have a more classic enso/+pna config as a base state. SoCal may need to break out the mudshovels. lol.

 

Speaking of PDO. We're in the longest running monthly + period since 02-03 and numerically stronger than the 86-88 timeframe. Starting to look like we are exiting the -pdo phase and not just experiencing a blip in the overall - regime that has dominated since 2004.

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Lastest runs of the EC and GFS are forecasting another high-end/strong WWB in about a week, perhaps driven by yet another TC couplet in the WPAC. Trade winds look very weak in that area until that time, even westerly in some areas.

 

If we get another strong, broad WWB in such rapid succession with the last, then it should lend increasing confidence to the idea of a Super Nino (3.4 >2.0C) this fall.

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Lastest runs of the EC and GFS are forecasting another high-end/strong WWB in about a week, perhaps driven by yet another TC couplet in the WPAC. Trade winds look very weak in that area until that time, even westerly in some areas.

 

If we get another strong, broad WWB in such rapid succession with the last, then it should lend increasing confidence to the idea of a Super Nino (3.4 >2.0C) this fall.

 

Man that previous one made it pretty far east with the 12+ m/s westerly 850 hPa anomalies nearly reaching 120˚W. Can see the reversal of the trades as you mentioned east of that in the forecast too.

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

Atmospheric ENSO index from WSI almost going off the scales on the Euro forecast here via Dr. Ventrice.

 

CKg7nSdXAAArjQQ.png

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I cleaned up the thread...keep the off topic AMOC collapse talk any other climate change discussion to the climate forum.

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you can see a definite shift to the west in July with the warm anomalies as a whole

That is due to a follow-on oceanic kelvin wave from the strong westerly wind burst we had in the WPAC earlier this month. There's another strong WWB ongoing now that might eclipse the strength of the one we just had. In that case, expect to see a great deal more subsurface warming.

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Nobody is banking on a -NAO winter. The white flag is flying until proven otherwise (in real time and not model land). 

 

 

Don, great graphic. Love it. While the enso regions have distinct similarities to 97-98, the npac doesn't. Still many months away from knowing how that will look come game time but the +PDO is really asserting itself right now. If we can maintain the +anoms closer to the NA coast along with solid cold anoms west of there we may have a more classic enso/+pna config as a base state. SoCal may need to break out the mudshovels. lol.

 

Speaking of PDO. We're in the longest running monthly + period since 02-03 and numerically stronger than the 86-88 timeframe. Starting to look like we are exiting the -pdo phase and not just experiencing a blip in the overall - regime that has dominated since 2004.

 

The part of me that wants to observe and work an interesting late fall thru early spring SVR season hopes that the NAO, and even moreso the AO, stay out of the ridiculously negative range. That's what completely blew up our outbreak potential during the 2009-2010 ENSO. It was persistently and historically cold to the extent that we had an unprecedented (and evening some light freezing rain) widespread sleet/snow event on January 9th.

 

Of course, the other side of me doesn't want a repeat of 22-23 FEB 1998 or 2 NOV 1997.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mlb/pdfs/35cdpw-bhagemeyer.pdf

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August 4th MEI Update.....

 

"While the updated (June-July) MEI has dropped slighty (by 0.09 standard deviations in one month) to +1.97, it is now reaching the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only by 1997 at this time of year. The MEI has hovered around +2 standard deviations for two months running, highest overall since early 1998. 

 

Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+1/-5) in this season, and excluding cases with declining June-July values compared to earlier in the year gives us five 'analogues' to ponder: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997. All five of them maintained strong El Niño status through at least December of their respective first calendar years. Both 1982-83 and 1997-98 can be classified in a separate 'Super El Niño' category, since they are the only events to reach +3 standard deviations at their respective zeniths, compared to barely above +2 standard deviations for the runner-ups in 1987 (and 1992), as well as 2015 so far.

 

El Niño conditions are guaranteed to persist into the upcoming boreal winter season, most likely at strong levels for much of that period. Whether it will reach the elusive 'Super El Niño' level remains to be seen. In addition, typical El Niño impacts will be supported by positive PDO conditions that have endured since January 2014, reaching record levels from December through February 2015."

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The May-June-July ONI came in at +1.0 C.  Seems kind of low considering CPC's weekly Nino 3.4 anomalies have been above +1.0 C since mid May.  Are there different techniques used for measuring Weeklies, Monthlies and ONIs?  

post-1853-0-44588300-1439213015_thumb.jp

post-1853-0-84532700-1439213026_thumb.pn

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The May-June-July ONI came in at +1.0 C.  Seems kind of low considering CPC's weekly Nino 3.4 anomalies have been above +1.0 C since mid May.  Are there different techniques used for measuring Weeklies, Monthlies and ONIs?  

 

I wondered the same thing myself.
 
I estimated that the MJJ ONI tercile would be about +1.14C, based upon the actual monthly SSTA values of +0.87C (May), +0.97C (June), and a rough guess of +1.58C (July) - the latter being based upon those CPC weeklies in the chart you posted (an average of +1.4C, +1.5C, +1.7C, +1.6C, and +1.7C from 1-29 JUL).
 
Of course, it turned out that MJJ was actually +1.02C, which means the July 3.4 SSTA value was +1.22C (+/- 0.1C).
 
I was informed that the more recent, ERSSTv4 based values are used to calculate the monthly SSTA and tercile ONI values, while the weeklies are still based on the older ERSSTv3B dataset. v4 uses a warmer climatological SST, and thus its SSTA dataset is cooler than v3B, which uses an older, and cooler background SST state.

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My thinking is that the weekly values are based on OISST.v2....and yes, the tri-monthly ONI is based on ERSSTv4.  

 

OISSTv2 incorporates satellite data, whereas it looks like ERSST does not.  You can get more info about the data sets here - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v3b

 

There must be something preventing NOAA from producing ERSSTv4 values on a weekly basis.  If they did that, the weekly, monthly, and tri-monthly values would be consistent.  As it stands, OISSTv2 is always warmer than ERSSTv4.  You can compare the two here - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

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My thinking is that the weekly values are based on OISST.v2....and yes, the tri-monthly ONI is based on ERSSTv4.  

 

OISSTv2 incorporates satellite data, whereas it looks like ERSST does not.  You can get more info about the data sets here - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v3b

 

There must be something preventing NOAA from producing ERSSTv4 values on a weekly basis.  If they did that, the weekly, monthly, and tri-monthly values would be consistent.  As it stands, OISSTv2 is always warmer than ERSSTv4.  You can compare the two here - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

 

Awesome! Thanks for the correction, as well as the link to the tabular v2 data.

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