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hurricaneman

2015 ENSO super thread

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I don't want to read the speculation around El Niño again until there's going to be a real one. 2-3 years of busted forecasts and hype over nothing really wear a guy down after awhile. It was evident that the persistent over hyping of El Niño did a lot of damage to some people's forecasts this winter. I stayed in the 'No Niño camp' until November but caved to popular opinion against better judgement. So, with that said, I'm sick of El Niño.

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Strongest WWB in months is already having big impacts on SST, much warmer along the equatorial Pacific the last 7 days.  Based on the GFS this strong WWB will continue through at least the next 7 days.

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Yes, the atmosphere has begun to look Nino-ish again for a few days, but now the ocean has returned to basically a neutral state.  It's going to take a while with sustained atmospheric forcing to get the ocean even back to where we were a couple of months ago. 

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Yes, the atmosphere has begun to look Nino-ish again for a few days, but now the ocean has returned to basically a neutral state.  It's going to take a while with sustained atmospheric forcing to get the ocean even back to where we were a couple of months ago. 

 

I posted in the MA thread about the sub-surface cold pool that has developed in the last few weeks east of the dateline. That won't be good for the resurgence of Nino conditions.

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Very strong WWB continues near Dateline, Nino 4 region.  We're seeing some intraseasonal subsurface cooling in the east Pac. but I expect the downwelling wave by the dateline to continue to build.  Wonder how it will compare to last spring's strong Kelvin wave as we head into the upcoming spring months.

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post-1853-0-95890500-1423068294_thumb.gi

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Very strong WWB continues near Dateline, Nino 4 region.  We're seeing some intraseasonal subsurface cooling in the east Pac. but I expect the downwelling wave by the dateline to continue to build.  Wonder how it will compare to last spring's strong Kelvin wave as we head into the upcoming spring months.

More cold wx for the east?

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With the current ongoing WWB, DJF ONI should stay at or above +0.50 C.  This would be the forth tri-montly in a row and 1 short of CPC's El Nino criteria.  People may have to stop calling this the "almost El Nino."  CPC's latest weekly departure is at +0.50C but Levi's CDAS 3.4 index has been running even higher.

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post-1853-0-01589900-1424107876_thumb.gi

 

Down-welling wave continues to expand and warm.  Cooler surface/subsurface by Nino 1-2 shrinking but still anomalously cool.  Nino 3.4 should continue to stay at or above +0.5 C for the foreseeable future.  

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El Nino has been declared.

 

El Nino is declared

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
5 March 2015


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory



Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015.

During February 2015, El Niño conditions were observed as the above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1) became weakly coupled to the tropical atmosphere. The latest weekly Niño indices were +0.6oC in the Niño-3.4 region and +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region, and near zero in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies increased (Fig. 3) associated with a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which was reflected in positive subsurface anomalies across most of the Pacific (Fig. 4). Consistent with weak coupling, the frequency and strength of low-level westerly wind anomalies increased over the equatorial Pacific during the last month and a half (Fig. 5). At upper-levels, anomalous easterly winds persisted across the east-central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative for two consecutive months. Convection was enhanced over the western equatorial Pacific and near average around the Date Line (Fig. 6). Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions.

Compared to last month, several more models indicate El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index equal to or greater than 0.5oC) will continue throughout 2015 (Fig. 7). This is supported by the recent increase in subsurface temperatures and near-term model predictions of the continuation of low-level westerly wind anomalies across parts of the equatorial Pacific. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which contributes to progressively lower probabilities of El Niño through the year. In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated. However, certain impacts often associated with El Niño may appear in some locations during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

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Massive, long duration WWB event looks to be underway. Also the MJO forecasts for the past few days park a very strong MJO over the W-Pac for some time. CFS week 1-4 850 U-wind anomalies look promising as well.

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Massive, long duration WWB event looks to be underway. Also the MJO forecasts for the past few days park a very strong MJO over the W-Pac for some time. CFS week 1-4 850 U-wind anomalies look promising as well.

 

I think we're seeing more of a false MJO signal than anything else.  This westerly wind burst has actually been progressing east to west rather than west to east as one would expect with the MJO, and certainly did not originate in the IO basin. 

 

Also, while the westerly anomalies west of the date line are impressive, easterly anomalies persist east of the date line.  So if any warming comes from this, it should be in the central Pacific.  IMO it looks like we're heading into a Modoki El Nino. 

 

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the thing is most are saying a really active hurricane season in the EPAC coming but if this goes more like a Madoki it could be more of an impediment for the EPAC with the Sub Tropical jet going through that region and possibly aiding the Atlantic because of cooler water in the ENSO 1,2, and possibly 3 so its something to watch but its also something to watch if you live in California as a cooler ENSO in the 1,2 and possibly 3 regions could lead to drought continuing or even deepening there so a lot of things to consider if a madoki happens as opposed to a traditional El Nino

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What years/periods since 1950 (or further back, if you have the data) are generally considered to be those when an El Nino Modoki was present?

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What years/periods since 1950 (or further back, if you have the data) are generally considered to be those when an El Nino Modoki was present?

 

 

This graph is courtesy of Bob Tisdale.

 

2ppaihc.png

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Hurricanes and their impacts during an El Nino Madoki

 

1958: Helene cat3\4 130mph North Carolina

1965: Betsy cat 3 120mph Key Largo, FL cat 4 155mph New Orleans, LA

1968: Gladys cat 1 85mph Homosassa, FL

1969: Camille cat 5 175mph Bay St Louis, MS

          Gerda cat 2 105mph Eastport, ME

1977: Babe cat 1 75mph Cocodrie, LA

1986: Bonnie cat 1 85mph Sea Rim State Park, TX

1991: Bob Cat 2 105mph Buzzards Bay, MA

1994: none

2002: Lili Cat 1 90mph Intracoastal City, LA

2004: Alex cat 1 90mph North Carolina

          Charley cat 4 150mph Punta Gorda, FL

          Frances cat 2 105mph Hutchinson Island, FL

          Gaston Cat 1 75mph Awendaw, SC

          Ivan cat 3 120mph Pensacola, FL

          Jeanne cat 3 125mph Stuart, FL

so honestly if this ends up being an El Nino Madoki the Gulf and Florida tend to be the places to look as they have the numbers as 6 hit Florida, 4 hit somewhere in the Gulf and a secondary area up the east coast too as there have been several hurricanes that have gone up the east coast during those years as in 5 of them

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