packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS and GFS Para both pointing toward a -NAO (!) after Jan 15. I forgot what one looks like it's been so long! The GEFS is hinting at a -AO around then, still nothing of a -NAO though. But, if we can get a -AO with a +PNA that should be good enough for something wintery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Link? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_41.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The GEFS is hinting at a -AO around then, still nothing of a -NAO though. But, if we can get a -AO with a +PNA that should be good enough for something wintery. Haha it's been hinting at a -NAO for about 6 weeks. By the way, can you tell me if Brick likes cold and dry or not? I can't remember. It's been a whole 15 minutes since he said and I don't want to have to go back through all the last two posts and find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Haha it's been hinting at a -NAO for about 6 weeks. By the way, can you tell me if Brick likes cold and dry or not? I can't remember. It's been a whole 15 minutes since he said and I don't want to have to go back through all the last two posts and find out. LOL, it took him about 3 days to go from the glass is half full to now the glass is half empty. I thought he would last atleast until mid-Jan. The GFS/GEFS has been hinting at blocking all winter and has never come to fruition. Below is back from mid-Dec, that obviously didn't work out. People forget the GFS is such a weenie model in the 10+ day range, always has been always will be. I don't see a wintery pattern on any model yet, discounting the fantasy GFS runs. The Euro/EPS shows it then that's a different story. People can say the EPS has been struggling, and maybe it has, but it's still the best model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Pack the euro ensembles showed that same pattern as the gefs. Both busted badly on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Haha it's been hinting at a -NAO for about 6 weeks. By the way, can you tell me if Brick likes cold and dry or not? I can't remember. It's been a whole 15 minutes since he said and I don't want to have to go back through all the last two posts and find out. This time it's a different setup leading in. Very amplfied pattern with a storm near the Canadian Maritimes that pumps heights up over Greenland and gets trapped. Pv is displaced se and continues the cyclonic flow underneath the ridge.It's a believable progression but it's hard to bet against persistence. Every molecule in my body wants the gfs to be right though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The cold is impressive next week, -20 to -25F departures but today/tomorrow/Monday will have +15 to +25F departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Funny cause the eps from that same period says I should have been putting on sunscreen instead of chapstick this thursday. I'm the most pro euro guy on here, but even I have to admit the gfs and espeacilly para have been wiping the floor with the euro LR the past couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Pack the euro ensembles showed that same pattern as the gefs. Both busted badly on that. Yep, good point, the theme is the blocking hasn't materialized on any model. The MJO isn't going to be helping in the near/mid term either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Pack, if the gfs/gefs is right and we get multiple shots and end below normal temp wise in the next 2 weeks, it'll be a big euro ens bust. If the euro ens are sucking in this pattern then the weeklies have virtually no value for what us weenies do. Time will tell but I smell a bust simmering on the stove that might get the heat turned up shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The cold is impressive next week, -20 to -25F departures but today/tomorrow/Monday will have +15 to +25F departures. So basically we could end up normal over a ten day period(average of extremes). I still think that is better than the continuous normal(no extreme) temps we've been getting for the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Funny cause the eps from that same period says I should have been putting on sunscreen instead of chapstick this thursday. I'm the most pro euro guy on here, but even I have to admit the gfs and espeacilly para have been wiping the floor with the euro LR the past couple weeks. They look pretty close to me at day 10 for this week, neither picked up the depth of the cold until it got inside day 7. I know I am comparing 850's v/s 2m's as that's all I have access to from several days ago. But it's good enough comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 This time it's a different setup leading in. Very amplfied pattern with a storm near the Canadian Maritimes that pumps heights up over Greenland and gets trapped. Pv is displaced se and continues the cyclonic flow underneath the ridge.It's a believable progression but it's hard to bet against persistence. Every molecule in my body wants the gfs to be right though. Lol I would love to believe it's right too. I have no idea how the model is programmed but I wish for the next upgrade, it would be coded so that instead of the LR always spitting out the beautiful and cold patterns, they would show mild/seasonal and garbage patterns. That would keep everyone from getting their hopes up and would probably be closer to reality in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Pack, if the gfs/gefs is right and we get multiple shots and end below normal temp wise in the next 2 weeks, it'll be a big euro ens bust. If the euro ens are sucking in this pattern then the weeklies have virtually no value for what us weenies do. Time will tell but I smell a bust simmering on the stove that might get the heat turned up shortly Bob, that bust has been cookin for about 5 weeks now, and I'm not talking about the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Meanwhile, has anyone seen the just updated Euro MJO forecast? See 1st attachment. To say I love what it shows is putting it mildly. I know it is just a forecast, but the Euro has proven to be good with its MJO fcasts. Focus on where the Euro says it is headed 1/15-17 (COD 6 toward COD 7/8/1)! IF this Euro fcast were to verify pretty closely to that and when considering we're in a weak Nino with strong +PDO, the sky would be the limit as far as the cold/wintry potential for the 2nd half of Jan. IF we were to also get a turnaround in the AO/NAO, well, I don't think I have to say anything lol. But even if the AO/NAO were to not go neg., history shows that the last half of Jan would still likely be very cold and probably wintry (see MJO/ENSO/PDO analogs 1988 and 2003 if you need convincing). Now compare that to the optimal MJO track I posted last night and am reposting here in this 2nd attach. To review, the reason that the 2nd attachment's track is what I'm calling optimal track is what is shown in this 3rd attach based on an analysis of the 1,240 days' temp.'s at ATL Jan. 1975-2014...i.e., a very large sample, of hard data: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Pack, if the gfs/gefs is right and we get multiple shots and end below normal temp wise in the next 2 weeks, it'll be a big euro ens bust. If the euro ens are sucking in this pattern then the weeklies have virtually no value for what us weenies do. Time will tell but I smell a bust simmering on the stove that might get the heat turned up shortly Just posting some maps from day 12 from the 0z runs from last night, let's see how they do over the next few days. Edit: LOL, just noticed they look fairly close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Bob, that bust has been cookin for about 5 weeks now, and I'm not talking about the EPS. Bob/CR - I still don't see anything on the ensembles that jumps out and says snow/wintery to me. I agree, it doesn't say it would be impossible to get snow/ice and maybe for the MA/NE you guys would have a much better chance. Still holding out hope for a -AO mid/end of Jan. Day 15 on the models get's us out to Jan 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yep, good point, the theme is the blocking hasn't materialized on any model. The MJO isn't going to be helping in the near/mid term either. Pack, I totally disagree with you about the just updated MJO. See the post I just made a few minutes ago. The Euro's new MJO fcast for midmonth is VERY promising and about as good as it gets though it still has to verify obviously. Why do you think it is bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 They look close now because the euro has been in cave mode the last 3-4 runs. Today's ens run will look another shade better if I had to guess. Gefs picked up first by a good margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Pack, I totally disagree with you about the just updated MJO. See the post I just made a few minutes ago. The Euro's new MJO fcast for midmonth is VERY promising and about as good as it gets though it still has to verify obviously. Why do you think it is bad? I agree with the premise that we want to be in the left half of COD-7-8-1, but it's not there, the higher amplitude into 7 would be much better. Right now what's it's showing is better than being in 5-6 so I will give you that, but I don't see a "yay the MJO looks great" either. But this goes back to the glass half full v/s glass half empty. This winter has been a big suck of glass half empty. Until we actually see some results (blocking/snow/ice) I am on the glass half empty side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The day 9 12Z Euro is showing signs of caving to the GFS' idea of a mid month Arctic shot. I predict the Euro is going to fail once more and that is not based on wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I hear you Larry. Your new research is getting ready to get tested, hopefully the euro mjo is right. I would be suprised if it gets disproved based on the history backing it up. If this shows itself correct, I know the index I'll be tracking daily. Right now even though the jury is still out, you can't argue against it. I just hope others on here who appear to live and die by the Nao will take the time to read your presentation and see how it verefies. You've made a strong case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The day 9 12Z Euro is showing signs of caving to the GFS' idea of a mid month Arctic shot. I predict the Euro is going to fail once more and that is not based on wishcasting. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Can anyone tell me what it was again that was likeable about the end of the GFS run? Was it the east-based -NAO feature that is moving out? Or was it the zonal flow and scouring out of the cold air in Canada? Or was it the retreat of the PV to north-central Canada? Edit: The arctic blast repeat is nice. Dry though. Brick should be thoroughly po'd after the next 15 days are in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I agree with the premise that we want to be in the left half of COD-7-8-1, but it's not there, the higher amplitude into 7 would be much better. Right now what's it's showing is better than being in 5-6 so I will give you that, but I don't see a "yay the MJO looks great" either. But this goes back to the glass half full v/s glass half empty. This winter has been a big suck of glass half empty. Until we actually see some results (blocking/snow/ice) I am on the glass half empty side. I want to make sure we're looking at the same thing. I know it is just a fcast, but you do realize that the brand new EPS (ECMM at the MJO site) has the MJO going into COD 6 ~1/15 (from outside COD 6) and then COD 7 headed toward COD 8/1, right? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Why get on here and debate it and follow the models then if you don't believe it until it happens? Just curious Believe what? This is a weather forum for discussing weather. I don't believe day 15 op GFS runs but do believe there is merit to day 10-12 ensemble runs. I tend to lean towards the Euro/EPS but a blend of the EPS/GEFS usual works out. Day 12 on the GEFS is interesting, the Euro/EPS agrees then that's a start. Still no meaningful blocking showing up on either ensemble. So when I say I don't believe, that's for day 15 op runs. You get ensembles showing this day 10 or so it's more beIievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I want to make sure we're looking at the same thing. I know it is just a fcast, but you do realize that the brand new EPS (ECMM at the MJO site) has the MJO going into COD 6 ~1/15 (from outside COD 6) and then COD 7 headed toward COD 8/1, right? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml MJOeuroFcast010314.gif Yep, let's see how things go the next few days since we are talking day 13/14. Hopefully it doesn't circle back through 4-5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 LR Euro continues to be a dumpster fire. Good news is, it'll probably change. We will probably get attacked arctically twice. There is currently no clear winter storm threat showing up, although the pattern should present a few windows for it. At least this a step in the right direction, kinda like that Pathfinder game on the old Price Is Right. We've stepped on the second correct number. Only 3 more to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Hot off the presses!! LOL All new weather video is up online. Warning, its a longer video today, but there is a TON to talk about and a TON of potential with the pattern. I still feel that the models will trend maybe a little colder with the arctic airmass, but we shall see. This will be the REAL deal cold for sure. Next weekend looks **Potentially** interesting...Not sure anything will happen, *more than likely won't*, but IMHO its very possible. Thanks for watching! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 KATL now has a low of 11 for Wed night, but wants to warm us up way too fast????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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