Powerball Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Congrats to the IL/WI peeps. Atleast somebody nearby will be getting some snow and not i-95.. Yep. Chicago looks to be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 4km NAM is def colder through 36hr across northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 990 mb near IND at 21z Wed on the 12 km NAM. Looks like dual lows at 48 hours. NAM is gonna bury you there in Lake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 H51... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 NAM is gonna bury you there in Lake County. This may be one of those that I'll be uneasy with until gametime. I guess it helps that I'll be in the western fringes of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 H51... USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_051 qqq.gif you and points south the big snow winners on the NAM, nice QPF explosion at 48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 4km NAM also slower and SE of its 18z run. 988mb south of Indy alogn I-65 at 18z Wed (18z run had it over Chicago at the same time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 4km NAM would be a textbook track for SE WI, although in the end we may be riding the northern edge, especially MKE on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Man, 1.0-1.5" of qpf falls within the deform band in a 12hr period across IL and into WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nice to see the NAM get a clue. Still think rain keeps things in check imby but accumulating snow looking likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Via RC, Gino is writing the AFD tonight and feels pretty good about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Via RC, Gino is writing the AFD tonight and feels pretty good about this one. very nice....thanks for the update TSnow.... haven't been keeping track of exact timing.... any overlap with the snow and the hours you are at ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Via RC, Gino is writing the AFD tonight and feels pretty good about this one. All negatives a side, I love our position relative to the deepening low. Defo will be at peak strength in or near the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 hires_snow_acc_chicago_18.png Beautiful for the snow lover in me, horrendous for the commuter in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Off the LOT Facebook page a few minutes ago: Quick update. one of our reliable forecast models which had been a hold out, is now on board with the potential for heavy snowfall over at least portions of the region Wednesday. It is looking increasingly likely that travel could become EXTREMELY difficult in or very near our region Christmas Eve. If the remainder of computer model guidance looks as ominous when it comes in later this evening, then a winter storm watch would likely be posted later tonight for portions of the region for Wednesday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 For comparison purposes, here are radar images of the tightly wound-up 12/1/2006 with its awesome-looking trowal structure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 RGEM looks like it will come south to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 850 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014 UPDATE 850 PM CST NO CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO DUMBBELL SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE CORN BELT TOWARD WISCONSIN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND DRAG A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULT DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT PUNCTUATED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AS THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH. TRENDS IN THE GRIDS ALREADY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED. OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE 00Z WRF-NAM IS TRICKLING IN AND APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY CAVED IN AND JOINED THE CAMP OF WHAT THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAD SHOWN ON WITH THE 12Z RUNS. LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS HAS MADE THIS A CHALLENGING SYSTEM TO FORECAST FOR...HOWEVER THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS CAME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND NOW THE 00Z WRF-NAM SEEMS TO HAVE JOINED THAT CAMP WHICH COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THREAT TO A POTENTIALLY LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM PROGGED IN THE MODELS WITH 500MB...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALL LEAVE ME VERY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A VERY HEAVY AND WET SNOW AFFECTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE NEGATIVE MID- LEVEL THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 6C/KM FROM 600-300MB POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND. THERMAL PROFILES IN THE MODELS ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY DOWN LOW...HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS SHOWN IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD ANTICIPATE STRONG ASCENT TO OVERWHELM IN MARGINAL WARMTH DOWN LOW AND LIKELY ALLOW FOR HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE DEFO BAND. NOT UNCOMMON FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEMS TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS FORECAST...WHICH COULD PUSH THE HEAVY SNOW BAND FARTHER WEST IN OUR CWA WITH MORE OF A MIX EAST. THE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR A RATHER NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND OF PRECIPITATION...MAKING THE PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY SNOW BAND VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. AM RELUCTANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLE SALE CHANGES TO THE 4TH PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ON AN EVEN SHIFT FOLLOWING A QUICK GLANCE AT THE LATEST NAM...HOWEVER IF THE 00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE COMES IN LOOKING SIMILAR TO THEIR 12Z RUNS AND ANYTHING LIKE THE 00Z WRF-NAM THEN THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY HIGH WATER CONTENT SNOWFALL...THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT QPF VALUES THAT COULD SUPPORT 6+ INCHES OF SNOW EVEN WITH SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS AS LOW AS 7-8:1. WILL UPDATE THE SPS AND HIT THINGS HARDER IN THAT PRODUCT FOR NOW. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 All negatives a side, I love our position relative to the deepening low. Defo will be at peak strength in or near the area. Booze must be kicking in. 5:50 am post tommorow-wagons west. Bank clock 40 and cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Gino is a master of the AFD, one of the best I've ever seen at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 very nice....thanks for the update TSnow.... haven't been keeping track of exact timing.... any overlap with the snow and the hours you are at ORD? I'm at ORD from 6am to 2pm so I'm pulling for the slower guidance so I can get home before it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 RGEM looks like it will come south to some extent. 983 mb near Grand Haven MI at 00z Thu. 18z run at 54 hours was just offshore of the IL/WI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nice wagons west hint in the Gino update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 hires_snow_acc_chicago_18.png That's beautiful! Remembering back to the 12/1/06 storm, I think it was a degree or two colder than predicted with this storm and it was at night largely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Nice wagons west hint in the Gino update You just couldn't help yourself lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'd be getting ready for power outages where this band sets up. Winds don't look too crazy but it will be a factor and this stuff is going to be water logged and cling to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I said before (and held firm on it) that this would be Chicago's storm. These type of bombing lows coming of the gulf almost always produce nicely there. Given the dynamics and amount of moisture associated with the storm, the marginal temps shouldn't be as big as a detriment as some thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I'd be getting ready for power outages where this band sets up. Winds don't look too crazy but it will be a factor and this stuff is going to be water logged and cling to everything. Imagine this with some of those sub 970 mb early progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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