January Forecast Discussion

[SACRUS]

Gotta wonder if 1994/95 serves as a good analog (so far).  Dec +4 / Jan +3.5.  Feb -3.5 with 12" of snow.  Anyway just interesting similarties temp-wise this December.   This Dec is much wetter and Nov was frigid compared to 94. 

[SnowGoose69]

Gotta wonder if 1994/95 serves as a good analog (so far). Dec +4 / Jan +3.5. Feb -3.5 with 12" of snow. Anyway just interesting similarties temp-wise this December. This Dec is much wetter and Nov was frigid compared to 94.

The southern branch was non existent if I recall in 94-95 despite it being a niño, there was extreme dryness for many areas of the country

[SnoSki14]

I could see the early Jan system being a big icy mess already. You have plenty of low level cold hanging around thanks to the very strong -EPO and some hefty highs. Let's keep in mind that cutters usually don't mean just plain rain and certainly not with a ton of surface cold nearby. 

[Doorman]

GFS 12Z  run

Jan 1st thru the 12th

highlight reel....

save it for history...PARA takes over on the 14th IIRC

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html

[donsutherland1]

Great analysis, thank you. Like DT alluded to before, the QBO has to rise for major improvements in the Pac Jet.

 

The QBO is probably nearing a bottom, but it will likely be a few months before it is near neutral (February at the earliest and more likely March or April). However, it should be noted that big East Coast snowstorms can occur when the QBO is strongly negative. Since 1950, there were 4 events that were rated 3.5 or higher on the NESIS. All four commenced when the Arctic Oscillation was -2 or below.

 

As the QBO won't change much at least through January and probably February, the development of blocking will be key to whether there are opportunities for significant snowstorms.

[Absolute Humidity]

The QBO is probably nearing a bottom, but it will likely be a few months before it is near neutral (February at the earliest and more likely March or April). However, it should be noted that big East Coast snowstorms can occur when the QBO is strongly negative. Since 1950, there were 4 events that were rated 3.5 or higher on the NESIS. All four commenced when the Arctic Oscillation was -2 or below.

 

As the QBO won't change much at least through January and probably February, the development of blocking will be key to whether there are opportunities for significant snowstorms.

Yup, agree 100%. Even last year we had periods of -AO and or neutral or weak -NAO with Scand blocking where our largest storms produced. Without blocking we can book a 10" winter or less for sure this season. That being said, I'll be pretty shocked if no significant blocking developes this Jan or Feb due to the uber SAI SCE this October.

[donsutherland1]

Yup, agree 100%. Even last year we had periods of -AO and or neutral or weak -NAO with Scand blocking where our largest storms produced. Without blocking we can book a 10" winter or less for sure this season. That being said, I'll be pretty shocked if no significant blocking developes this Jan or Feb due to the uber SAI SCE this October.

I agree. I suspect that the blocking will develop in the end.

[White Gorilla]

Thanks for the input, Don. As usual, I learn from your posts.

The QBO is probably nearing a bottom, but it will likely be a few months before it is near neutral (February at the earliest and more likely March or April). However, it should be noted that big East Coast snowstorms can occur when the QBO is strongly negative. Since 1950, there were 4 events that were rated 3.5 or higher on the NESIS. All four commenced when the Arctic Oscillation was -2 or below.

 

As the QBO won't change much at least through January and probably February, the development of blocking will be key to whether there are opportunities for significant snowstorms.

[Animal]

o z gfs show a rain storm day 8. 

if this holds, i am going to toss the next 15 days out into the tank.

I remain optimistic in January, but this puts us into the 1st week of the month with no cold air or favorable storm tracks.

call the  1st 7 days of the month a bust, this only give us 7 days for a pattern change and a window of 14 days for winter.

just a thought. 

 

Best.

[Animal]

You forgot to say "Best"

 

Fixed

 

Best.

[Animal]

not that it will be accuate, but tonight 0 z run of the gfs is a disaster.

summary is mild, cool, cutter with rain, cold shot with a cutter and rain.

16 days, no phantasy storms.

 

best

[MJO812]

not that it will be accuate, but tonight 0 z run of the gfs is a disaster.

summary is mild, cool, cutter with rain, cold shot with a cutter and rain.

16 days, no phantasy storms.

 

best

It's not a bad pattern on the GFS. The PV is splitting as we speak. The lag time should be mid January. That's when the pattern should get better.

[Animal]

It's not a bad pattern on the GFS. The PV is splitting as we speak. The lag time should be mid January. That's when the pattern should get better.

 

Dude, come on. i enjoy snow just as much as you, but we need "live it" and not be looking at the end of the month.

You know how this goes. a good pattern storms just hit &  around simiar to a bad patterm just stays.

 

Best

[MJO812]

Dude, come on. i enjoy snow just as much as you, but we need "live it" and not be looking at the end of the month.

You know how this goes. a good pattern storms just hit &  around simiar to a bad patterm just stays.

 

Best

So you're telling me that this pattern is going to stay like this for the rest of this winter?

[atownwxwatcher]

So you're telling me that this pattern is going to stay like this for the rest of this winter?

It could very well stay unfavorable. I been trying to find something to give an indication that the pendulum is going to swing the other direction but with the PAC firehose ..just not seeing it...

[MJO812]

It could very well stay unfavorable. I been trying to find something to give an indication that the pendulum is going to swing the other direction but with the PAC firehose ..just not seeing it...

The PV splitting is not an indication?

[MJO812]

0z GGEM for next weekend

[Animal]

So you're telling me that this pattern is going to stay like this for the rest of this winter?

 

Anthony, the pattern may switch at the end of the month with some snow. 

just with what I see and smell, I am almost ready to hedge my bets on the period of January 22nd-Febraury 15th for snow/winter.

 

best.

[Animal]

0z GGEM for next weekend

 

Lets stick with the GFS this winter. show me a model other than the GFS that has been right in the 5-10 day period.

[Guest Pamela]

0z GGEM for next weekend

 

 

Let me ask you something...72 hours ago the Canadian model had a major snowstorm for NYC...that has since evaporated...like sooo many others...I even made a post calling the Canadian model "erratic" beyond 48 hours or so...but now you are going to give credence to its 168 hour progs????

[Guest Pamela]

Let me ask you something...72 hours ago the Canadian model had a major snowstorm for NYC...that has since evaporated...like sooo many others...I even made a post calling the Canadian model "erratic" beyond 48 hours or so...but now you are going to give credence to its 168 hour progs????

 

I think this is the post I was referencing...

 

 

Its quite a hit...printing out up to 16 inches of snow around NYC over the next 240 hours...only problem is, the single worst thing to be in is the bullseye 5 days out...especially with the notoriously erratic Canadian model. 

[Guest Pamela]

To gauge the severity of arctic anticyclones in Canada...I often like to look at thermal data out of Churchill Manitoba...on the west shore of Hudson Bay...the normal split in Churchill this time of year is something like -11 F / -29 F...I don't even think they are forecast to fall to -30 F over the next 7 days...case closed. 

[mob1]

To gauge the severity of arctic anticyclones in Canada...I often like to look at thermal data out of Churchill Manitoba...on the west shore of Hudson Bay...the normal split in Churchill this time of year is something like -11 F / -29 F...I don't even think they are forecast to fall to -30 F over the next 7 days...case closed.

Their average is more like -6 to -20 for this time of year, they will be significantly below normal from new years or so. They obviously don't get the negative anomalies as warmer climates.

[Guest Pamela]

Their average is more like -6 to -20 for this time of year, they will be significantly below normal from new years or so. They obviously don't get the negative anomalies as warmer climates.

 

DFN's in the Prairie Provinces of Canada during winter can be greater than those in the lower 48...so you are quite incorrect.  For example, during the famously frigid month of January 1982...DFN's across parts of Canada were almost -15 F in spots.

 

As for the average temps there...my -11 F / -29 F split was based on January averages from several years back...the numbers you utilize may incorporate the recent warm period...but I really believe that even if we account for that...the numbers you cite are an overall winter average rather than an early January one.

[Guest Pamela]

Their average is more like -6 to -20 for this time of year, they will be significantly below normal from new years or so. They obviously don't get the negative anomalies as warmer climates.

 

As for your prediction of them being "significantly below" their mean...well w/o evidence to support your contention..it carries no weight with me.

[Guest Pamela]

 They obviously don't get the negative anomalies as warmer climates.

 

Take caution with throwing the colloquialism "obviously" around...especially around me...it has condescending & patronizing undertones. 

[SnowGoose69]

The storm at Day 5-6 or so is not going to produce much if any frozen precip anywhere in the northeast...the angle of positioning of the high as well as the time it takes the system to eject from the southwest just does not work...by the time it get here the high is too far south and moving offshore...if the high was crossing the Lakes into SE Canada we'd have a chance.  What it does look like however is that this storm will further change the pattern, albeit briefly...I still think we moderate soon after Day 10 but we may a chance at a snow event after 1/5.

[PB GFI]

Our window may only last through the 11th and then many of you will not be pleased as to where the pattern takes us.

The 1st system is sheared out for Tues because of the cold press followed buy a cutter which will feature cold both before and after so that should make you even more angry.

We are below normal until the 11th .After that look for the trough to head west.

The NEG EPO is intact through day 15 but the MJO flying through 5 - 6 so that is going to allow the ridge to get forced underneath and into the E.

That s probably for the 12 th -17 th ( keep on mind warm reversals usually hang on a little too long ) Ala Dec . The NEG EPO will keep Canada cold and as the MJO is forecast to head into 7 8 1 which are cold phases that would take hold after the 17th but there would likely be a lag. So it's prob later.

However there is no way of knowing if that happens and what the state of the EPO AO NAO will be that far out , it would just be conjecture .

So if we don't score something by the 11th you could be shut out through mid month. Not what anyone wants to read and not what I want to type .

[Brian5671]

The fact that you are bnailing is telling....not sure this is really a pattern change but rather a breakdown of the warm pattern which then simply reloads after a brief break

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

The fact that you are bnailing is telling....not sure this is really a pattern change but rather a breakdown of the warm pattern which then simply reloads after a brief break

We aren't really in a warm pattern. We had a neutral/negative departure until just before Christmas.