NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I also know I'm gonna get flack for this but the 18z gfs op LR is a good example actually of what I believe will happen in theory not as depicted. It shows 2 storms taking a decent track to our south and east but there's no cold around at all so they're rainstorms. They look like classic Nino storms with a good track/no cold that's very typical without a -NAO. Eventually though if that pattern continues and blocking develops as well as the -EPO that should bring the cold back which all Mets believe will especially in January then we'll get our snowstorms. And yes I know they are long range storms and I shouldn't point them out but I'm just using them as an example. GFS is defunct in about 9 days - its a flawed model why even mention it past 5 days report on the GFS Para instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I also know I'm gonna get flack for this but the 18z gfs op LR is a good example actually of what I believe will happen in theory not as depicted. It shows 2 storms taking a decent track to our south and east but there's no cold around at all so they're rainstorms. They look like classic Nino storms with a good track/no cold that's very typical without a -NAO. Eventually though if that pattern continues and blocking develops as well as the -EPO that should bring the cold back which all Mets believe will especially in January then we'll get our snowstorms. And yes I know they are long range storms and I shouldn't point them out but I'm just using them as an example. You have the right to use whatever tools you like but there are better ones at your disposal . Your using at hatchet to perform surgery . You are looking at an OP run to estimate a pattern in 15 days. It's a coarse approach when looking for this kind of solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Hopefully we're not heading to a setup where the pattern change is always 10 days away. Going to take awhile for Canada to get cold again as Bluewave notes and hearing that the Euro weekies push it back some more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Hopefully we're not heading to a setup where the pattern change is always 10 days away. Going to take awhile for Canada to get cold again as Bluewave notes and hearing that the Euro weekies push it back some more... Canada is not warm . What is 2 SD above normal in Manitoba is normal in NYC . The weeklies DO NOT push anything back . Does this look warm at 240 in Canada ? We will be in business once past the 20th . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 All due respect mate I have seen this movie before . Pamela Posted 26 November 2014 - 09:24 PM 4,240 posts Joined November 12, 2010 The CPC's composite 6 to 10 & 8 to 14 day outlooks look warm & wet in the eastern U.S. That would cover the period from about December 2nd to December 10th. My apologizes Pam , just to make a point No agenda ,The CPC guys are smarter than I but the cold has won out , there has been no torch and there is not going to be. All 6 first order weather stations in the Greater New York area are running positive departures from normal with regards to temperature thru the first seven days of the month...so saying "the cold has won out" may not entirely be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think many (self included ) are still spoiled over last year's ball to ball cold from NW Canada's -EPO driven air. Much of that Canadian cold was purely EPO driven. If we were to begin another extended round of -EPO -AO it wouldn't take forever to draw the deep arctic air over on a cross polar flow into Canada, and as Paul shows that air in and of itself isn't exactly warm, in the dead of winter, it's not going to modify that much to give us 33 and rain come Dec 27th. What would really be beneficial is if we can get some semblance of a -NAO in a few weeks as eastern Canada is and will remain butt cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Hello White Christmas 00z GFS (*If only it came true, too bad its weenie fantasy paradise island*) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 That fantasy storm looks like rain on the coast again.... obviously it all depends on track. But the 540 line is pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 That fantasy storm looks like rain on the coast again.... obviously it all depends on track. But the 540 line is pretty far north. There's a better chance that Santa Claus himself comes down your chimney then the map looking anything like that on XMAS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think many (self included ) are still spoiled over last year's ball to ball cold from NW Canada's -EPO driven air. Much of that Canadian cold was purely EPO driven. If we were to begin another extended round of -EPO -AO it wouldn't take forever to draw the deep arctic air over on a cross polar flow into Canada, and as Paul shows that air in and of itself isn't exactly warm, in the dead of winter, it's not going to modify that much to give us 33 and rain come Dec 27th. What would really be beneficial is if we can get some semblance of a -NAO in a few weeks as eastern Canada is and will remain butt cold. Yes, the solid -EPO produced strong Arctic high pressure and cold over Canada so it compensated for the loss of Atlantic blocking to some extent. It wasn't a KU pattern, but there was enough cold available to our north to finish with above normal snow even though NYC ran +1 in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Yes, the solid -EPO produced strong Arctic high pressure and cold over Canada so it compensated for the loss of Atlantic blocking to some extent. It wasn't a KU pattern, but there was enough cold available to our north to finish with above normal snow even though NYC ran +1 in December. That Dec 22 70 degree day put a full degree on our average . As cold as Jan - March were , it would have been nice to have all 4 finish below . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 its worthless and banter posting this nonsense here from a model which is being replaced because it has problems with the mid and long range in a pinned thread especially since you like to be critical of other peoples posts Para looks even better in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 That Dec 22 70 degree day put a full degree on our average . As cold as Jan - March were , it would have been nice to have all 4 finish below . Yeah, that huge -EPO kept it cold when it had to be. It was all on that 12-14 storm to put us over on the snowfall for the month. Very solid Arctic high pressure just to the north with -30C 850's west of James Bay. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us1214.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Para looks even better in the LR. Going to be interesting to see if the Para is really an improvement over the old GFS - not the last one to show up at the party ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Going to be interesting to see if the Para is really an improvement over the old GFS - not the last one to show up at the party ......... Not such good news on the parallel recently as it has actually been scoring a little lower than the current OP GFS. So it will still be third place behind Euro and UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Not such good news on the parallel recently as it has actually been scoring a little lower than the current OP GFS. So it will still be third place behind Euro and UKMET. cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png To me, there's not much difference between the old and new GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 To me, there's not much difference between the old and new GFS. Right. it's very close to the old model so the upgrade won't be an improvement. The Euro and ensembles will continue to be the go to model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Here is the Euro at Day 10 - comments ? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Right. it's very close to the old model so the upgrade won't be an improvement. The Euro and ensembles will continue to be the go to model. Only thing PGFS is good for now is seeing its errors in a higher resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Here is the Euro at Day 10 - comments ? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png Both the OP and ensemble take that day 9 system due east. Because it believe the high is strong enough to do as there's a new trough pushing info the Northeast. The control is further north and to b fair the 0z was further N than yesterday a 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 One of those pieces coming into the west coast should get us before xmas. I like the look at 500. Watch how deep the troughs In the GOA and Europe get. That usually translates to deeper trough on the EC. The fact that the euro sees some trough on the EC in the LR should send up a flag as it tends to wash out on the EC In its LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm hoping that NOAA's recent work on the Para that made them not run the model for a few days will allow the model to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 how sad is it that our models are basically a waste of money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro Weeklies, the daily ensemble mean, & the GEFS all show pattern changing around Dec. 20-23 time frame. NO...not to severe cold but a step down to a cooler, stormier pattern which can & will definitely produce winter storms. It's a gradual step down to much colder ARCTIC intrusions that I think we begin to see around mid JAN. GGEM & NAEFS ensemble mean on the other hand show very, very cold pattern in the long-rang. ARCTIC flows right into the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Long range is looking a lot better on the Euro and GFS with a parade of storms by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Southern jet is about to go bonkers next week which as stated above, starts a parade of storms across the country. Fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Southern jet is about to go bonkers next week which as stated above, starts a parade of storms across the country. Fun times ahead! Cold air is limited however I see several transient 50/50 lows so the tracks could be decent but the airmass will be marginal each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Agreed, no true arctic air source....yet. However some of the largest snows come with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Agreed, no true arctic air source....yet. However some of the largest snows come with marginal temps. We'll have air cold enough should the storm round the bend and we can get a perfectly timed 50/50 block. That will have to suffice until we get an established -NAO regime which should be too far off according to the stratospheric warming at all mb level. That should aid in disturbing and splitting of the PV to initiate blocking. The +PNA, -AO and -EPO can also cover up many sins in place of a poor NAO as well. Once the pacific parade starts im willing to be one of them from the southern stream will hit us before christmas. I stand by my call of a white christmas for NYC-east Mr. Wiggum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 how sad is it that our models are basically a waste of money? Very. I always wonder when people say a model is crap..then why are they running the model and using it if its that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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