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Rising confidence in favorable period for snow Dec 15 - Jan 1


earthlight

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I also know I'm gonna get flack for this but the 18z gfs op LR is a good example actually of what I believe will happen in theory not as depicted. It shows 2 storms taking a decent track to our south and east but there's no cold around at all so they're rainstorms. They look like classic Nino storms with a good track/no cold that's very typical without a -NAO. Eventually though if that pattern continues and blocking develops as well as the -EPO that should bring the cold back which all Mets believe will especially in January then we'll get our snowstorms. 

 

And yes I know they are long range storms and I shouldn't point them out but I'm just using them as an example. 

GFS is defunct in about 9 days - its a flawed model why even mention it past 5 days report on the GFS Para instead

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I also know I'm gonna get flack for this but the 18z gfs op LR is a good example actually of what I believe will happen in theory not as depicted. It shows 2 storms taking a decent track to our south and east but there's no cold around at all so they're rainstorms. They look like classic Nino storms with a good track/no cold that's very typical without a -NAO. Eventually though if that pattern continues and blocking develops as well as the -EPO that should bring the cold back which all Mets believe will especially in January then we'll get our snowstorms. 

 

And yes I know they are long range storms and I shouldn't point them out but I'm just using them as an example.

You have the right to use whatever tools you like but there are better ones at your disposal .

Your using at hatchet to perform surgery . You are looking at an OP run to estimate a pattern in 15 days.

It's a coarse approach when looking for this kind of solution.

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Hopefully we're not heading to a setup where the pattern change is always 10 days away.  Going to take awhile for Canada to get cold again as Bluewave notes and hearing that the Euro weekies push it back some more...

Canada is not warm . What is 2 SD above normal  in Manitoba is normal in NYC .

 

The weeklies DO NOT  push anything back .

 

Does this look warm at 240 in Canada  ?  We will be in business once past the 20th .

 

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All due respect mate I have seen this movie before .

 

Pamela

Posted 26 November 2014 - 09:24 PM
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The CPC's composite 6 to 10 & 8 to 14 day outlooks look warm & wet in the eastern U.S.  That would cover the period from about December 2nd to December 10th. 

 

 

My apologizes Pam , just to make a point

No agenda ,The CPC guys are smarter than I but the cold has won out , there has been no torch and there is not going to be.

 

 

 

All 6 first order weather stations in the Greater New York area are running positive departures from normal with regards to temperature thru the first seven days of the month...so saying "the cold has won out" may not entirely be the case. 

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I think many (self included ) are still spoiled over last year's ball to ball cold from NW Canada's -EPO driven air. Much of that Canadian cold was purely EPO driven. If we were to begin another extended round of -EPO -AO it wouldn't take forever to draw the deep arctic air over on a cross polar flow into Canada, and as Paul shows that air in and of itself isn't exactly warm, in the dead of winter, it's not going to modify that much to give us 33 and rain come Dec 27th.

What would really be beneficial is if we can get some semblance of a -NAO in a few weeks as eastern Canada is and will remain butt cold.

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I think many (self included ) are still spoiled over last year's ball to ball cold from NW Canada's -EPO driven air. Much of that Canadian cold was purely EPO driven. If we were to begin another extended round of -EPO -AO it wouldn't take forever to draw the deep arctic air over on a cross polar flow into Canada, and as Paul shows that air in and of itself isn't exactly warm, in the dead of winter, it's not going to modify that much to give us 33 and rain come Dec 27th.

What would really be beneficial is if we can get some semblance of a -NAO in a few weeks as eastern Canada is and will remain butt cold.

 

Yes, the solid -EPO produced strong Arctic high pressure and cold over Canada so it compensated for the loss

of Atlantic blocking to some extent. It wasn't a KU pattern, but there was enough cold available to our north

to finish with above normal snow even though NYC ran +1 in December.

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Yes, the solid -EPO produced strong Arctic high pressure and cold over Canada so it compensated for the loss

of Atlantic blocking to some extent. It wasn't a KU pattern, but there was enough cold available to our north

to finish with above normal snow even though NYC ran +1 in December.

That Dec 22  70 degree day put a full degree on our average .  As cold as Jan - March were , it would have been nice to have all 4 finish below .

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That Dec 22  70 degree day put a full degree on our average .  As cold as Jan - March were , it would have been nice to have all 4 finish below .

 

Yeah, that huge -EPO kept it cold when it had to be. It was all on that 12-14 storm to put us over on the

snowfall for the month. Very solid Arctic high pressure just to the north with -30C 850's west of James Bay.

 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us1214.php

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Going to be interesting to see if the Para is really an improvement over the old GFS - not the last one to show up at the party .........

 

Not such good news on the parallel recently as it has actually been scoring a little lower than the current OP GFS.

So it will still be third place behind Euro and UKMET.

 

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Both the OP and ensemble take that day 9 system due east.

Because it believe the high is strong enough to do as there's a new trough pushing info the Northeast.

The control is further north and to b fair the 0z was further N than yesterday a 12z.

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One of those pieces coming into the west coast should get us before xmas. I like the look at 500.

Watch how deep the troughs In the GOA and Europe get. That usually translates to deeper trough on the EC.

The fact that the euro sees some trough on the EC in the LR should send up a flag as it tends to wash out on the EC In its LR

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Euro Weeklies, the daily ensemble mean, & the GEFS all show pattern changing around Dec. 20-23 time frame.  NO...not to severe cold but a step down to a cooler, stormier pattern which can & will definitely produce winter storms.  It's a gradual step down to much colder ARCTIC intrusions that I think we begin to see around mid JAN.

 

GGEM & NAEFS ensemble mean on the other hand show very, very cold pattern in the long-rang.  ARCTIC flows right into the CONUS.

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Agreed, no true arctic air source....yet. However some of the largest snows come with marginal temps.

We'll have air cold enough should the storm round the bend and we can get a perfectly timed 50/50 block. That will have to suffice until we get an established -NAO regime which should be too far off according to the stratospheric warming at all mb level. That should aid in disturbing and splitting of the PV to initiate blocking. The +PNA, -AO and -EPO can also cover up many sins in place of a poor NAO as well. Once the pacific parade starts im willing to be one of them from the southern stream will hit us before christmas. I stand by my call of a white christmas for NYC-east Mr. Wiggum ;)

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