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December Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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any chances that stretches into Queens or possibly the city?

UPTON .

 

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY

LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN

AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS

COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF

FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.

THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER

DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE

COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION

WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS

WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

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any chances that stretches into Queens or possibly the city?

 

Hard to say...but best chances look to be over eastern parts of the CWA for measurable snow. 

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UPTON .

 

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY

LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN

AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS

COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF

FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE

OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST.

THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER

DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE

COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION

WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS

WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.

Funnily enough I had just finished looking at the AFD :) but thank you!

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euro ens continue with storm threats the first week of january….after -epo with se ridge..canada is cold so thats a plus….going to be some sloppy storms

I'd love a new years eve snowstorm for nothing more then seeing the jewelry stores around here that have the "inch of snow on new years eve jewelry is free" have to pay out all that money...

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Last years cold from an extended NEG EPO was so overpowering I doubt we see that again this year . Many don`t realize it was a top 8 snowy winter in NYC but number a 1 or 2 ranked snow and cold winter for so many in the upper mid west and around the lakes . That  vortex got trapped last year way longer than anyone could have anticipated.

 

I  expect we get a few good systems to cut S , we pull back and do it again .

 

To expect last years totals and departures would be way to much to ask .

 

Yeah, last year was a unique situation where the -EPO ridge build across the pole over to Greenland.

The models aren't showing anything like that now as the -EPO ridge isn't being shown to build eastward.

 

 

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I want to see what this pattern looks like after christmas before i start getting excited. Need some help on the atlantic side to get a good coastal going around NYE. -NAO would be VERY helpful

 

It doesn't look like we are going to get much help from the Atlantic side the next few weeks as the brief blocking near

Greenland this week looks transient. So we are going to have to rely on the -EPO for any frozen chances.

That SST profile with all the warm water off the East Coast will continue to favor neutral to positive

+AO/+NAO.

 

The other thing that will make forecasting a challenge has been the erratic nature of the Euro

storm solutions beyond day 4-5. But the general 500 mb ensemble projections for teleconnections

has been pretty good. It has been very steady on the EPO reversal.

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It doesn't look like we are going to get much help from the Atlantic side the next few weeks as the brief blocking near

Greenland this week looks transient. So we are going to have to rely on the -EPO for any frozen chances.

That SST profile with all the warm water off the East Coast will continue to favor neutral to positive

+AO/+NAO.

 

The other thing that will make forecasting a challenge has been the erratic nature of the Euro

storm solutions beyond day 4-5.

I agree with the NAO but that ok with me  , I don`t for the life of me understand what the fascination is with a NEG NAO .  You run a huge risk of suppression .

Everyone thinks KU storms are a dime a dozen , we have probably lost many more EC storms due to a NEG NAO then without .

 

For the last time F THE NAO . It is not needed here to snow . -EPO/-AO brings the cold . Get a storm track underneath and you snow on snow . Who wants 2 weeks of cold and dry and then a whiff .

 

People have no idea what is needed here, they hear NAO and think it`s some kind of fail safe. ITS NOT

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I agree with the NAO but that ok with me  , I don`t for the life of me understand what the fascination is with a NEG NAO .  You run a huge risk of suppression .

Everyone thinks KU storms are a dime a dozen , we have probably lost many more EC storms due to a NEG NAO then without .

 

For the last time F THE NAO . It is not needed here to snow . -EPO/-AO brings the cold . Get a storm track underneath and you snow on snow . Who wants 2 weeks of cold and dry and then a whiff .

 

People have no idea what is needed here, they hear NAO and think it`s some kind of fail safe. ITS NOT

 

The lack of the -AO response this December after the October indicators was the big factor in the mild pattern

across the US in December. Last year our best storms followed the -AO drop in early January as there

is only so much you can do with a -EPO alone. We were able to pull off small to moderate events

in December just on the -EPO, but those seasonal totals would have been much lower with out 

the -AO kicking in in early January.

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The lack of the -AO response this December after the October indicators was the big factor in the mild pattern

across the US in December. Last year our best storms followed the -AO drop in early January as there

is only so much you can do with a -EPO alone. We were able to pull off small to moderate events

in December just on the -EPO, but those seasonal totals would have been much lower with out 

the -AO kicking in in early January.

Yep. The Euro seems a little more bullish on a NEG AO as per maue.  But my argument is the clamoring for a NEG NAO .

 

I have witnessed 5 whiffs ( and that`s on the really low side )  due to suppression for every12 plus inch storm . Last year was fine with me 6 to 8 inch snowfalls every 10 days suit me fine .

1983 may be remembered for that Feb Blizzard , but there was zero in front of it and zero behind it . Who could want that .

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Yep. The Euro seems a little more bullish on a NEG AO as per maue.  But my argument is the clamoring for a NEG NAO .

 

I have witnessed 5 whiffs ( and that`s on the really low side )  due to suppression for every12 plus inch storm . Last year was fine with me 6 to 8 inch snowfalls every 10 days suit me fine .

1983 may be remembered for that Feb Blizzard , but there was zero in front of it and zero behind it . Who could want that .

 

The Euro has a transient -AO signal since the best height rises are ending up more east instead

of Davis Strait centered. It's not showing that big Alaska to the Pole and Greenland pattern

like last year.

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Looks like the 5730m 500mb gph line, now in S.Carolina rides up EC to NYC  before/during XMAS rainstorm.    Better times ahead however:

 

06Z hints at some single digits temps for us and a potential of two snowstorms bet.  12/28---01/04.

 

Last Dec. was a little different right now.   On the first full day of winter it was 71degs., but by XMAS day the temps. stayed below 32 all day.    This year we endure the SE_Ridge before/during XMAS but hopefully wind up in the same place, 3 days later.

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Really does not look terribly snowy anywhere in the Northeast over the next 10 days / 240 hours...rare for mid-December. 

 

Soo very, very prescient...

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