Radders Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Gefs has a nice storm signal near NYE 12Z Euro has a shortwave digging in the southwest around the 12/30 timeframe too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Definitely appears as if there will be periods of light snow with minor accumulations...especially out over Long Island & Connecticut...later today into tomorrow.any chances that stretches into Queens or possibly the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 any chances that stretches into Queens or possibly the city? UPTON . SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST. THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 any chances that stretches into Queens or possibly the city? Hard to say...but best chances look to be over eastern parts of the CWA for measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 UPTON . SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT...BUT VERY LIGHT. DURING THE EVENING...WEAK LIFT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A SHORTWAVE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. THEN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CHANCES OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SPREAD WEST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING PVA FROM THE WEST. THINKING IS THAT PCPN TYPE WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OVER DRIZZLE IN SPITE OF MOISTURE LACKING IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WOULD ALSO TEND TO FAVOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW. Funnily enough I had just finished looking at the AFD but thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 euro ens are pretty bullish on a storm threat around NYE….50/50 low with blocking could make things fun around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 euro ens continue with storm threats the first week of january….after -epo with se ridge..canada is cold so thats a plus….going to be some sloppy storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 euro ens continue with storm threats the first week of january….after -epo with se ridge..canada is cold so thats a plus….going to be some sloppy storms I'd love a new years eve snowstorm for nothing more then seeing the jewelry stores around here that have the "inch of snow on new years eve jewelry is free" have to pay out all that money... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'd love a new years eve snowstorm for nothing more then seeing the jewelry stores around here that have the "inch of snow on new years eve jewelry is free" have to pay out all that money...I think you mean see the insurance companies pay that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Gfs cold and dry after the grinch storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Gfs cold and dry after the grinch storm Lets first get the cold air in here. The storms will eventually come =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I thing we see a decent frozen event by the end of the 1st week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 6z GFS is cold and stormy for NYE into the first week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 That's a good start let's hope by Dec 28 we are in tracking mode for a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Hello winter , we may have found you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Day 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Last years cold from an extended NEG EPO was so overpowering I doubt we see that again this year . Many don`t realize it was a top 8 snowy winter in NYC but number a 1 or 2 ranked snow and cold winter for so many in the upper mid west and around the lakes . That vortex got trapped last year way longer than anyone could have anticipated. I expect we get a few good systems to cut S , we pull back and do it again . To expect last years totals and departures would be way to much to ask . Yeah, last year was a unique situation where the -EPO ridge build across the pole over to Greenland. The models aren't showing anything like that now as the -EPO ridge isn't being shown to build eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 I want to see what this pattern looks like after christmas before i start getting excited. Need some help on the atlantic side to get a good coastal going around NYE. -NAO would be VERY helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I want to see what this pattern looks like after christmas before i start getting excited. Need some help on the atlantic side to get a good coastal going around NYE. -NAO would be VERY helpful It doesn't look like we are going to get much help from the Atlantic side the next few weeks as the brief blocking near Greenland this week looks transient. So we are going to have to rely on the -EPO for any frozen chances. That SST profile with all the warm water off the East Coast will continue to favor neutral to positive +AO/+NAO. The other thing that will make forecasting a challenge has been the erratic nature of the Euro storm solutions beyond day 4-5. But the general 500 mb ensemble projections for teleconnections has been pretty good. It has been very steady on the EPO reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I thought the SST configuration was such that it favored a -NAO in the Atlantic. It was one of the things talked about in the winter outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 It doesn't look like we are going to get much help from the Atlantic side the next few weeks as the brief blocking near Greenland this week looks transient. So we are going to have to rely on the -EPO for any frozen chances. That SST profile with all the warm water off the East Coast will continue to favor neutral to positive +AO/+NAO. The other thing that will make forecasting a challenge has been the erratic nature of the Euro storm solutions beyond day 4-5. I agree with the NAO but that ok with me , I don`t for the life of me understand what the fascination is with a NEG NAO . You run a huge risk of suppression . Everyone thinks KU storms are a dime a dozen , we have probably lost many more EC storms due to a NEG NAO then without . For the last time F THE NAO . It is not needed here to snow . -EPO/-AO brings the cold . Get a storm track underneath and you snow on snow . Who wants 2 weeks of cold and dry and then a whiff . People have no idea what is needed here, they hear NAO and think it`s some kind of fail safe. ITS NOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The NAO killed my puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 do they grow cherries in Europe??? picky picky http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I agree with the NAO but that ok with me , I don`t for the life of me understand what the fascination is with a NEG NAO . You run a huge risk of suppression . Everyone thinks KU storms are a dime a dozen , we have probably lost many more EC storms due to a NEG NAO then without . For the last time F THE NAO . It is not needed here to snow . -EPO/-AO brings the cold . Get a storm track underneath and you snow on snow . Who wants 2 weeks of cold and dry and then a whiff . People have no idea what is needed here, they hear NAO and think it`s some kind of fail safe. ITS NOT The lack of the -AO response this December after the October indicators was the big factor in the mild pattern across the US in December. Last year our best storms followed the -AO drop in early January as there is only so much you can do with a -EPO alone. We were able to pull off small to moderate events in December just on the -EPO, but those seasonal totals would have been much lower with out the -AO kicking in in early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 do they grow cherries in Europe??? picky picky wd.gif http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/index.html Yawn , same model run 6 hours earlier . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The lack of the -AO response this December after the October indicators was the big factor in the mild pattern across the US in December. Last year our best storms followed the -AO drop in early January as there is only so much you can do with a -EPO alone. We were able to pull off small to moderate events in December just on the -EPO, but those seasonal totals would have been much lower with out the -AO kicking in in early January. Yep. The Euro seems a little more bullish on a NEG AO as per maue. But my argument is the clamoring for a NEG NAO . I have witnessed 5 whiffs ( and that`s on the really low side ) due to suppression for every12 plus inch storm . Last year was fine with me 6 to 8 inch snowfalls every 10 days suit me fine . 1983 may be remembered for that Feb Blizzard , but there was zero in front of it and zero behind it . Who could want that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Fluctuating periods of transient weak NAO is probably ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Yep. The Euro seems a little more bullish on a NEG AO as per maue. But my argument is the clamoring for a NEG NAO . I have witnessed 5 whiffs ( and that`s on the really low side ) due to suppression for every12 plus inch storm . Last year was fine with me 6 to 8 inch snowfalls every 10 days suit me fine . 1983 may be remembered for that Feb Blizzard , but there was zero in front of it and zero behind it . Who could want that . The Euro has a transient -AO signal since the best height rises are ending up more east instead of Davis Strait centered. It's not showing that big Alaska to the Pole and Greenland pattern like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Looks like the 5730m 500mb gph line, now in S.Carolina rides up EC to NYC before/during XMAS rainstorm. Better times ahead however: 06Z hints at some single digits temps for us and a potential of two snowstorms bet. 12/28---01/04. Last Dec. was a little different right now. On the first full day of winter it was 71degs., but by XMAS day the temps. stayed below 32 all day. This year we endure the SE_Ridge before/during XMAS but hopefully wind up in the same place, 3 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Really does not look terribly snowy anywhere in the Northeast over the next 10 days / 240 hours...rare for mid-December. Soo very, very prescient... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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