Hoosier Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Congrats LAF on the 18z Parallel GFS from 216hrs and beyond. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 cyclone77 may bust his computer if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 cyclone77 may bust his computer if this verifies gfs_namer_264_precip_p60.gif Haha. Yeah that does kind of look like a map from last year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 i am ready, bring it...maybe the CMC is onto something, if this snowpack is laid down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Congrats LAF on the 18z Parallel GFS from 216hrs and beyond. The road to 75.4" begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 That is absolute insanity. Not that we should believe it will get that cold, but for the heck of it I looked up our record low for that day and it's 7 degrees. This is a reporting site that has been around for over 100 years. Temps similar to the GGEM wouldn't be too far fetched if we can get a wound up storm like it shows (to pull the core of the PV southward into our region) and a bit of snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The road to 75.4" begins. DTW will join you for the ride...the ride to 95.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 DTW will join you for the ride...the ride to 95.0" Meanwhile, Milwaukee and DVN will hop aboard the run toward futility (at least for such a cold season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Feels like January or the heart of winter looking at forecast soundings for the possible light snow Saturday night into Sunday around here. Not a worry in the world are borderline temperatures, but now it's how deep is the DGZ? 300mb deep growth zone/nearly 150mb isothermal layer around -15 deg C in mid November. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Feels like January or the heart of winter looking at forecast soundings for the possible light snow Saturday night into Sunday around here. Not a worry in the world are borderline temperatures, but now it's how deep is the DGZ? 300mb deep growth zone/nearly 150mb isothermal layer around -15 deg C in mid November. I'll take it. snow sounding.gif Impressive. If we can put down an inch or two on Saturday night, 850s approaching -20 next Monday night/Tuesday could spell record cold. That could be the coldest 850 mb readings in November in this area since 1976, based off ILX/PIA. ECMWF performed best overall with the storm this week and it's been trending upward a bit with QPF on Saturday night.Also, not a big deal but I think we'll have some flurries or snow showers in the air on Thursday as the upper trough moves overhead. Soundings, especially from the NAM, show steep lapse rates through the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Impressive. If we can put down an inch or two on Saturday night, 850s approaching -20 next Monday night/Tuesday could spell record cold. That could be the coldest 850 mb readings in November in this area since 1976, based off ILX/PIA. ECMWF performed best overall with the storm this week and it's been trending upward a bit with QPF on Saturday night. Also, not a big deal but I think we'll have some flurries or snow showers in the air on Thursday as the upper trough moves overhead. Soundings, especially from the NAM, show steep lapse rates through the DGZ. saw some pops added to Thursday for my p and c....you still out in naper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 saw some pops added to Thursday for my p and c....you still out in naper? Yup, I actually added those pops in this evening. I still live in Naperville. I was off the grid for 3 weeks from mid October until 1st weekend of November on my honeymoon in Australia. It was basically summer weather our whole time there, which is going to make this stretch of weather a bit tougher to take initially. Hopefully we get some snow Saturday night, because cold and dry sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 CMC showing a dominant northern wave, instead of the southern wave that cuts up through KS this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yup, I actually added those pops in this evening. I still live in Naperville. I was off the grid for 3 weeks from mid October until 1st weekend of November on my honeymoon in Australia. It was basically summer weather our whole time there, which is going to make this stretch of weather a bit tougher to take initially. Hopefully we get some snow Saturday night, because cold and dry sucks. congrats....welcome back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The 00z Parallel GFS has a pretty big snowstorm for our region just beyond the 7 day. 12"+ amounts even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 congrats....welcome back! Thanks! Expecting another fairly active winter to keep us busy at the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Parallel GFS showing quite a storm in about 8 days. Hopefully not just a tease, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Parallel GFS showing quite a storm in about 8 days. Hopefully not just a tease, lol. This is the whole event and everything else.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 This is the whole event and everything else.. Even more impressive (which I just caught) is those snow amounts in Oklahoma and Arkansas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 If this is how the GFS is going to be from here on out, I am going to need to buckle in. That said, it did do a pretty good job with the current system compared to the outgoing GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 If this is how the GFS is going to be from here on out, I am going to need to buckle in. That said, it did do a pretty good job with the current system compared to the outgoing GFS. I see that it's snowing at DTW (from the LES off Lake Michigan). Has there been anything measurable yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I see that it's snowing at DTW (from the LES off Lake Michigan). Has there been anything measurable yet? I left an hour ago but it had just started when I was leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 That GFS parallel run is forecasting the #1 snowiest November on record for Chicago. Top 3: 14.8 (1940) 14.5 (1895) 14.3 (1951) & These are the only years at a foot or more. So...it's preeeetty difficult for that to verify, but not totally unprecedented. 12z Euro shows the same Ohio Valley tracker, is further south with it. 3-6" totals from STL northeast. 0z coming in now on WeatherBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The models in the extended have begun to let up on the cold, which would make sense without a significant system to reinforce the cold air (as the pattern slowly breaks down). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 I noticed that...mostly past day 10. But the closer we get to winter the averages plummet anyway. So closer to average isnt necessarily a bad thing. November is the largest temp differential from first to last day of the month. The average high on the 1st is 56F, on the 30th 41F The models in the extended have begun to let up on the cold, which would make sense without a significant system to reinforce the cold air (as the pattern slowly breaks down). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 0z Euro is a little different for late Sunday and into Monday. Develops a gulf low that goes up to WV (1004mb) and then ALB (999mb). Still fairly minor...but some snow for parts of S IL, IN, SE MI, and ON...but OH gets the "brunt". There's some ensemble support, but still a lot of spread. In the extended, 0z Euro ensembles break down the cold pattern in the 11-15 day timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 0z Euro is a little different for late Sunday and into Monday. Develops a gulf low that goes up to WV (1004mb) and then ALB (999mb). Still fairly minor...but some snow for parts of S IL, IN, SE MI, and ON...but OH gets the "brunt". There's some ensemble support, but still a lot of spread. In the extended, 0z Euro ensembles break down the cold pattern in the 11-15 day timeframe. Yea I saw that too. JB mentions it as well and seems to think the idea has merit. I have to admit, a relaxation in the pattern is a relief to me. An early frozen ground sucks for my work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 What the OP EURO run showed last night. 6z GFS parallel total snowfall through 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 That GFS parallel run is forecasting the #1 snowiest November on record for Chicago. Top 3: 14.8 (1940) 14.5 (1895) 14.3 (1951) & These are the only years at a foot or more. So...it's preeeetty difficult for that to verify, but not totally unprecedented. 12z Euro shows the same Ohio Valley tracker, is further south with it. 3-6" totals from STL northeast. 0z coming in now on WeatherBell. I agree on it being very difficult for it to verify...but seeing as how the next 5 to 10 days are featuring an anomalously cold pattern I keep it in the realm of possibilities more than most other Novembers. That being said...specific locations as to whether its Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, etc....is a crapshoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 0z Euro is a little different for late Sunday and into Monday. Develops a gulf low that goes up to WV (1004mb) and then ALB (999mb). Still fairly minor...but some snow for parts of S IL, IN, SE MI, and ON...but OH gets the "brunt". There's some ensemble support, but still a lot of spread. Other guidance picking up on that too. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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