blizzard24 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 link to ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 So we have one model giving decent rains lol. Good luck folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 link to ggem Bone dry-outlier on the dry side. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Euro similar to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 12z ECMWF is pretty uggly for anyone north of the CT beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Euro looks like 0.25-0.5" for most of CT/RI/SE MA...pretty meh up here though, more like 0.1-0.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 totally different precip orientation near DC this run. i hate this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Man am I glad I didn't invest in this one. If this was winter there'd be so many disappointed. Good tuneup though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 12z ECMWF is pretty uggly for anyone north of the CT beaches. looks like it has a blob of convective feedback in S NJ-not sure how that affects rest of its solution, but do agree, there's a cutoff in extreme SNE verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 It's got between .10-.25 in N CT lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 How can you trust a model run with less than an inch in all of VA where it's currently pouring? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=AKQ&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 I'm pretty confident you exceed an inch. I don't know. I sure hope so, but new euro is pretty much in line with the .25-.50 thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Who's invested? Your over/ under is .3 for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Who's invested? Your over/ under is .3 for a reason.based on today's (not unexpected models) I'm dropping that to .15 or under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 based on today's (not unexpected models) I'm dropping that to .15 or under What site? BDL? Not going to buy anything out of your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 based on today's (not unexpected models) I'm dropping that to .15 or under Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 I'm still waiting for the dumb-azz comments such as, "It doesn't matter this time of year anyway". As if all that people care about is watering their freaking lawns. Resevoir's have to be very low in most of New England. We really need a good shot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 I'm still waiting for the dumb-azz comments such as, "It doesn't matter this time of year anyway". As if all that people care about is watering their freaking lawns. Resevoir's have to be very low in most of New England. We really need a good shot of rain. Hard to remember the last time that an excessive rainfall event was on the table and the thought of flooding hasn't even been considered. The local river by me is running almost 2' below normal for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is wetter than the op again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 We got lucky with .75 this past Saturday night, but outside of that and the 9/6 storms, it's been dry going back to mid July upton's new package still has us with about an inch of rain and a high of 63 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 18z NAM is going to be well northwest of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Meh on the reservoir levels, its September pretty typical lowest stage for water. future looks pretty wet with the pattern changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 euro ens mean is much further west than the op with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 euro ens mean is much further west than the op with precip yea WV and radar seem to confirm this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Latest IR loop not looking too hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 it was dryer last 12/31/13 than it is now http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Why are people reaching here? Now an end mean trumps an op run 12 hours out? I don't really think anyone's reaching. Its an event to track that may give us, even if only a little, some beneficial rains. If this were a winter storm posts would be for a foot plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Here you have the 12z NAVGEM showing this with a known SE bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Reminds me of PD1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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