CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Canadian gave you more rain on the 00z run. It didn't win sh*t. Congrats on the under of .3" Looks like it's a real possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Canadian gave you more rain on the 00z run. It didn't win sh*t. Congrats on the under of .3" Looks like it's a real possibility. Was honestly hoping to get some rain..In all honesty..with the sky being relatively clear..and the rain shield looking hideous..it looks like you and me may not see anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Liking the 'slight chance' of rain for GC. Should be a great winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Rain on the doorstep here. Another hour and it's here. Chilly, 60 degrees, temps going nowhere today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Don just posted in the nyc thread saying how bad the euro is busting today 6z nam actually initialized pretty good from whar I could tell looks like we get good rains EURO gave my area nada on 00z run lol. Somehow the GGEM won this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Don just posted in the nyc thread saying how bad the euro is busting today 6z nam actually initialized pretty good from whar I could tell looks like we get good rains that band of rain is still marching north...have yet to see it starting to get shunted east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 That wall of rain has that familiar look to it. Cool radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Euro looks right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Euro looks right to me.Looks dead nuts on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Euro has already busted for NYC and it had .05 for BDR-I think we get more than that unless this thing litteraly hits a brick wall in the next 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Euro has already busted for NYC and it had .05 for BDR-I think we get more than that unless this thing litteraly hits a brick wall in the next 30 minutes How has it busted? JFK has had barely any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Bark on the radar is worse than the bite. Look at the metars before saying the model busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Bark on the radar is worse than the bite. Look at the metars before saying the model busted. here's what it had from 0z last night: Atlantic City: 0.85" Baltimore: 0.21" Bridgeport: 0.05" Islip: 0.38" Morristown: 0.09" New York City: 0.09" Newark: 0.12" Philadelphia: 0.15" White Plains: 0.03" Wilmington, DE: 0.14" - Looking at radar, I would think those #'s are in trouble even if radar is overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Well I'm just looking at 6hr precip valid at 12z for NYC and it looks good there. I care more about NYC then any other area. It's actually too wet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Well I'm just looking at 6hr precip valid at 12z for NYC and it looks good there. I care more about NYC then any other area. It's actually too wet there. I guess we'll see at the end of the day! LGA now reporting moderate rains... The priciest regular season game in MLB history is in jeopardy too-wonder if they'll try to get it in regardless...no makeup date since it's a meaningless game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Euro was pretty awful to the south of NYC this morning...it had like 0.15 for PHL and they have 0.52 and still raining steadily. Doesn't mean it will be terrible up here, but it might be too dry in southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 ACY up to 1.74 and Euro had .85 there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Yea Euro bust big time so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 It makes me laugh because every storm one model or another is right for certain areas, Just because it did not perform well in one place does not mean it will be wrong in another area, We see this happen all winter up here, Its like the broken clock theory, Its going to be right at least twice in a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Yea Euro bust big time so far In NJ maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 It makes me laugh because every storm one model or another is right for certain areas, Just because it did not perform well in one place does not mean it will be wrong in another area, We see this happen all winter up here, Its like the broken clock theory, Its going to be right at least twice in a day Yes...a model can bust, but it doesn't mean it will make a difference in our BY. It's like the syndrome we hear in winter "when the models show a cutter, its always right!!!!11!111!!"....when in reality, it is not. It just doesn't matter for their BY...it's still a rainstorm whether it cuts through Buffalo or Detroit. Now if a model shifted the same distance between DET and BUF when it was tracking near the benchmark, then it would have huge implications for us. That said, I do think the Euro will be too dry in the southern regions...up here though, it probably doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Well I was pretty confident Kevin would get .3" yesterday. Now not so sure. It's too bad the euro had that burp run a couple of days ago because overall it's done a decent job keeping most rain near the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Yes...a model can bust, but it doesn't mean it will make a difference in our BY. It's like the syndrome we hear in winter "when the models show a cutter, its always right!!!!11!111!!"....when in reality, it is not. It just doesn't matter for their BY...it's still a rainstorm whether it cuts through Buffalo or Detroit. Now if a model shifted the same distance between DET and BUF when it was tracking near the benchmark, then it would have huge implications for us. That said, I do think the Euro will be too dry in the southern regions...up here though, it probably doesn't matter. The precip side is really the area that most bust occur with either to little or to much qpf or in winter calling for snow and it rains instead, Been many instances where one model performed well further south and another did better further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 25, 2014 Author Share Posted September 25, 2014 The Euro is going to bust terribly down this way. Forecast was for <0.20" and raining steadily with what looks like a lot more to come. The HRRR has rain persisting down here right through 02z. Yankee game cancel IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The precip side is really the area that most bust occur with either to little or to much qpf or in winter calling for snow and it rains instead, Been many instances where one model performed well further south and another did better further north. Well precip is where models tend to not do as best anyways, esp in the warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 The Euro is going to bust terribly down this way. Forecast was for <0.20" and raining steadily with what looks like a lot more to come. The HRRR has rain persisting down here right through 02z. Yankee game cancel IMO. Well TEB has had a whopping .02 in those echoes. The real rain is down in central and southern NJ. We'll see if that lifts north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 6z nam had the rain band getting stronger and showed 2 to 5 inches of rain south of the pike 0z nam had alot less seems like a nowcast event to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Well precip is where models tend to not do as best anyways, esp in the warm season. This is true, But we have seen it in the winter as well with precip and even temps, I notice it up here with storm track more as well where one model may not come as far north as another with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 6z nam had the rain band getting stronger and showed 2 to 5 inches of rain south of the pike 0z nam had alot less seems like a nowcast event to me There is where the problem lies....................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 Ok maybe a bad example I know how bad the nam can be lol most models have been going back and forth though There is where the problem lies....................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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