NycStormChaser Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Cells are now going up in south Jersey now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Strong line of convection just west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Mesoscale discussion out. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1388.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Strong line of convection just west of me. Not much wind with them yet. 20-30mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 2000> J/kg MLCAPE into CNJ. MLCIN has eroded further east over LI. The storms over Western NJ now may strengthen over Eastern NJ/NYC. Edit:Cells popping over Eastern NJ/NYC already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK CITY...NJ...DE...FAR SE PA...MD...ERN VA...NE NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 151723Z - 151900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NE NC EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE VICINITY OF NEW YORK CITY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN PA SWD INTO VA AND NRN NC. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F AND THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. RAP MESOANALYSIS DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT TWO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST. THE FIRST IS LOCATED IN SRN NJ WITH THE SECOND OVER SERN VA AND NERN NC WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WSR-88D VWPS FROM WASHINGTON DC NNEWD ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR NEWARK NJ SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 40 KT OF FLOW IN THE 3 TO 5 KM LAYER. THIS IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD BECOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL IF CELLS CAN CONGEAL INTO A LARGER LINE SEGMENTS WITH A COLD POOL ORGANIZING. ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/15/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Downpour heavy rain thunder in bridgewater but no wind and not severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I don't know that activity east of trenton is starting to look pretty potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Future HRRR runs should become more and more accurate as models will have a better handle once the convection has actually initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 A nice downpour to start things off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 And just like that after 15 minute deluge we have blue skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'd keep an eye on those cells, radar is already indicating some rotation, especially in the more Western cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sea breeze front propagating westward in Monmouth acting to enhance low level convergence / T-storm initiation. Might be interesting as that line of cells in the western part of the county interacts w/ the sea breeze boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'd keep an eye on those cells, radar is already indicating some rotation, especially in the more Western cells. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ013&warncounty=NJC025&firewxzone=NJZ013&local_place1=2%20Miles%20SSW%20Holmdel%20NJ&product1=Special+Weather+Statement&lat=40.34533&lon=-74.19169#.U8VmnPldWVM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 If anyone lives on south shore I would be on the lookout for any waterspouts near raritan bay an sandy hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Watches, Warnings & Advisories Go to the NOAA Homepage NWS Homepage Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code 5 products issued by NWS for: 2 Miles SSW Holmdel NJ More Sharing ServicesShare|Share on facebookShare on twitterShare on emailShare on printShare on gmail Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 121 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 NJZ012>015-019-151815- EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ- 121 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...NORTH CENTRAL BURLINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTIES... AT 116 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CROSSWICKS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ALLENTOWN AROUND 130 PM...ROOSEVELT AROUND 140 PM...MANALAPAN AROUND 150 PM...ROBERTSVILLE AROUND 200 PM... MORGANVILLE AROUND 210 PM AND STRATHMORE AROUND 220 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Starting to hear thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'd like to see one of these cells drop a wedge and freak everyone out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWxWatcher201 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'd like to see one of these cells drop a wedge and freak everyone out A wedge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Already hearing thunder w/ the line 10 miles west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The evolution of this 1st line reminds me of September, 2010. Let's see if the line shows any signs of bowing out. Here is September, 2010 for reference: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 About to get crushes here in Berkeley Heights..wow at the CTG lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Rain and thunder just to the west. Made it to 89/76 prior to the clouds and this storm. Some clearing behind this cell but more may be forming so not sure we get into any more prolonged breaks/sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm on 22 East coming from Green Brook very dark skies and just had a awesome lightning strike...will head up towards Watchung Reservation should be a good show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 That cell NW of Plainfield has that look, radar still showing some weak rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 By the way anyone rooting for tornadoes is a little nuts don't you think. I guess a really weak one would be cool but they are nothing to mess with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 About to get crushes here in Berkeley Heights..wow at the CTG lightning think I just saw the same lightning strike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 By the way anyone rooting for tornadoes is a little nuts don't you think. I guess a really weak one would be cool but they are nothing to mess with. as much as we think it is cool to be under a tornado warning the damage part does kind of suck. I mean people in moore,OK don't root for them since they're pretty much nature's punching bag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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