forkyfork Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 use ML cape and normalized cape to get the best idea of where the most buoyancy is... SFC cape give an incomplete picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Somehow missed that... doh. All good man, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 its put on by garden state fireworks and always incorporates new and unique features. has shells and effects not seen in mainstream shows...the beer garden also helpsThe beer garden makes it full of win, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Getting some sun now, didn't realize how high the CAPE values are already. The 3000 J/KG is usually more than enough for severe but still believe its a major flash flooding type of day with a ridiculously humid and tropical air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 use ML cape and normalized cape to get the best idea of where the most buoyancy is... SFC cape give an incomplete picture Yeah it looks like the southern half of NJ's pushing 2000-2500 for ML CAPE. No surprise, that's where it's sunny right now. Atmosphere's ready to boil over down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yeah it looks like the southern half of NJ's pushing 2000-2500 for ML CAPE. No surprise, that's where it's sunny right now. Atmosphere's ready to boil over down there.I'm in West Deptford right now, more sun then clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Talk dirty to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun is out here now..steamy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 It is ripe out there, currently 83/DP 75/RH 78%. We should really be rocking and rolling by 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun shining through clouds here in the Bronx. I have a feeling about today. With the instability parameters the way they are I think we'll overperform rather than underperform. The writing was on the wall yesterday early on in the aftn with the best dynamics not in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Stupid low level clouds are hanging onto Brooklyn and Queens (looks like they will break up soon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Had a thought on the HRRR sig tor values, which are still blowing up across NYC metro. HRRR tends to have a sfc temp heat bias in these situations. Factor in the urban heat island effect and "channeling" from New York Harbor and perhaps the values are being skewed even more?Hard to ignore STP being so high for several runs in a row though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Today was always supposed to be "the day". Originally outlooked by SPC at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Had a thought on the HRRR sig tor values, which are still blowing up across NYC metro. HRRR tends to have a sfc temp heat bias in these situations. Factor in the urban heat island effect and "channeling" from New York Harbor and perhaps the values are being skewed even more? Hard to ignore STP being so high for several runs in a row though... Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWxWatcher201 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Wow , when the sun hits its almost like a wall of clear skies. It hits hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Going to take a stab and say they go 5%, 30% hatched and 15% at the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Talk dirty to me... hrrr_t_precip_nyc_14.png you get jackpotted and I get almost zero! im coming to you today for the storms! now watch I jinx you and get nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Going to take a stab and say they go 5%, 30% hatched and 15% at the update. 5% TOR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Can you post? It's a little more blotchy than some previous runs, but note that 1 is the "threshold" for enhanced significant tornado potential. We rarely see anything above 2 in this part of the country: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 you get jackpotted and I get almost zero! im coming to you today for the storms! now watch I jinx you and get nothing! This is what I'm expecting today and anything less will be a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Lol that map above bullseyes my area with TOR potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 16z 1500> J/kg MLCAPE from NYC SW. More MLCIN left just to the south and east though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 It's a little more blotchy than some previous runs, but note that 1 is the "threshold" for enhanced significant tornado potential. We rarely see anything above 2 in this part of the country: Yeah it does seem a little strange that it goes from next to nothing to 2-4 as soon as you get in and around the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Word has it that SPC left the probabilities the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 16z 1500> J/kg MLCAPE from NYC SW. More MLCIN left just to the south and east though: when the sun gets here, if it does I should destabilize fairly quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 hrrr_cape_nyc_6.png Not cute , considering one bullseye seems too close for comfort . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Word has it that SPC left the probabilities the same. Yes they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Not cute , considering one bullseye seems too close for comfort . my CAPE is barely at 1K. that may weaken the storms quite a lot when they form and move east paul. where you are 2k CAPE is pretty ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.