powderfreak Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 57.5F right now...not bad for 5pm. I'll be watching for aurora too.Afternoon high of 51F so far at MVL...I'm really pissed about the 55F at midnight, haha. I wanted a high of 51F on September 12th. We didn't come close to the forecast highs.Fall day all around...temps 49-51F at max heating with overcast and slate gray skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 12, 2014 Author Share Posted September 12, 2014 57.5F right now...not bad for 5pm. I'll be watching for aurora too.51F here. Those who chose to wear shorts and sandals to our department picnic today suffered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 51F here. Those who chose to wear shorts and sandals to our department picnic today suffered. High of 51F at MPV like MVL...MPV now fallen back to 49F again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 12, 2014 Author Share Posted September 12, 2014 High of 51F at MPV like MVL...MPV now fallen back to 49F again.Yeah and it was breezy at times too. A real fall feeling out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yeah the IMF has been oscillating back and forth but definitely has taken some dips to the south. Do you have a good link for that info? I was reading ona blog, but didn't know where to find the data in real time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Do you have a good link for that info? I was reading ona blog, but didn't know where to find the data in real time. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_2h.html You want a high Bt and low Bz... if the Bz is positive you won't see anything. Faster updating raw data http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace/ace_mag_1m.txt Keep in mind the ACE spacecraft is almost a million miles out in space and conditions there don't impact the earth for about 30 minutes depending on solar wind speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_2h.html You want a high Bt and low Bz... if the Bz is positive you won't see anything. Faster updating raw data http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace/ace_mag_1m.txt Keep in mind the ACE spacecraft is almost a million miles out in space and conditions there don't impact the earth for about 30 minutes depending on solar wind speed. Nice, this is helpful. Thanks. swpc is forecastin the Kp index to max out later tonight around 7...not sure how accurate their forecasts are, but hopefully there will be a window of decent acitvity. 7 isn't awesome, but usually you can get some good photos anyway and if lucky see with naked eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Nice, this is helpful. Thanks. swpc is forecastin the Kp index to max out later tonight around 7...not sure how accurate their forecasts are, but hopefully there will be a window of decent acitvity. 7 isn't awesome, but usually you can get some good photos anyway and if lucky see with naked eye. A kp of 7 can definitely lead to activity you can see with the naked eye. I've found that it's the point at which you can start to make out visible movement, vertical rays and even colors other than green. It really depends on proximity of local substorming within the main auroral belt. I have pictures I've taken from 2001-2004 that show what each kp looks like from 5 up through 9... maybe I'll see if I can find them and post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Hey Scott, you think Ellacoya would be a good spot to view looking north over the broads? I told will it may be a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 A kp of 7 can definitely lead to activity you can see with the naked eye. I've found that it's the point at which you can start to make out visible movement, vertical rays and even colors other than green. It really depends on proximity of local substorming within the main auroral belt. I have pictures I've taken from 2001-2004 that show what each kp looks like from 5 up through 9... maybe I'll see if I can find them and post. I assume the 2003 event was a 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Hey Scott, you think Ellacoya would be a good spot to view looking north over the broads? I told will it may be a good spot. That place could be perfect, but I've never been there at night so I don't know how lit up it is. I assume the 2003 event was a 9? yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 well f*** Pretty intense secondary surge with solar wind nearing 800km/s and Bt up to 27, if we could get the Bz back down we could potentially get some really strong action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Yeah saw that. Maybe a good sign. But hopefully the bz goes back negative. We're probably leaving to drive up soon. Even if we don't see anything it's cheaper than dinner out, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 I just got an automatic email at work of k index of 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Amazing sunset tonight...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Amazing sunset tonight...wow. No sunset over here...thick low stratus all day never cleared up. Hope it disappears so we can radiate. 49/40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 This is killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 This is killing me. Mag_swe_2h.gif I know next to nothing about solar weather. Is this good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 This is killing me. Mag_swe_2h.gif lol at the Bz flip to northerly before sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Aurora cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Hopefully some of you outside of the blocked moisture can see something. No chance here. KMVL 122354Z AUTO 32003KT 10SM OVC024 09/04 A3030 AO2 SLP265 T00890044 10106 20089 53010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 It's cleared out for the most part here in the southern end of the Champlain Valley. SWPC's Satellite Environment Plot is showing KP of 7. SWPC's Estimated Planetary K Index just jumped to 7. The stats suggest we should see something in VT. Just not dark enough yet to see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Clear to my north here. Astro twilight begins at 8:43pm. I'll take a drive 1/2 mile up my road where I can see the northern horizon. I just have the White Mountains to my north, no towns as Plymouth is more NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I know next to nothing about solar weather. Is this good or bad? Bad. Aurora cancel? Delayed, but not necessarily cancelled since the Btotal is still at a very high level of 30. We're just waiting for things to flip. This graph shows the average over the last 3 hours... it's at 7 because of that prolonged period of negative Bz's a little while ago. The next update will probably be a 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Bad. Delayed, but not necessarily cancelled since the Btotal is still at a very high level of 30. We're just waiting for things to flip. This graph shows the average over the last 3 hours... it's at 7 because of that prolonged period of negative Bz's a little while ago. The next update will probably be a 5. G3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Just took a 20 second exposure of the northern horizon and there is indeed a low green glow over there... about what I'd expect given the conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Bad. Delayed, but not necessarily cancelled since the Btotal is still at a very high level of 30. We're just waiting for things to flip. This graph shows the average over the last 3 hours... it's at 7 because of that prolonged period of negative Bz's a little while ago. The next update will probably be a 5. Oh, you're harshing on my mellow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Just took a 20 second exposure of the northern horizon and there is indeed a low green glow over there... about what I'd expect given the conditions. Please share if you get anything good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Ok, it's faint but visible to the naked eye and a little higher in the sky now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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