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March 29-30th moderate nor'easter


Mikehobbyst

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If its nearly impossible to forecast, maybe lay off the definitive statements?

 

Every single model showed this band. All of them.

They were wobbling the location a bit, but they all showed it anywhere from Queens to Montauk.

Latest 6z Rgem had the bullseye over NYC, but it obviously was too far west.

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That's not true, I wouldn't have believed any model showing accumulating snows for this area from an ULL with forecasted surface temps well above freezing on March 31st.

 

 

Surface temps are ALWAYS modeled above freezing in these spring setups. But when you see strong banding with 850s and other levels below 0 (check soundings), experience tells the ones that know that it's snow.

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Every single model showed this band. All of them.

They were wobbling the location a bit, but they all showed it anywhere from Queens to Montauk.

Latest 6z Rgem had the bullseye over NYC, but it obviously was too far west.

Today was one of those "I'll believe it when I see it". Well, I'm seeing it. Congrats.

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Every single model showed this band. All of them.

They were wobbling the location a bit, but they all showed it anywhere from Queens to Montauk.

Latest 6z Rgem had the bullseye over NYC, but it obviously was too far west.

Closed upper lows often have surprise snow patches like these. I remember in late October 2005 in State College, PA we had heavy snow under one of these for hours when even places in upstate NY and south of us had rain. These are very dynamic systems that can bring down cold air if you're under a heavy band with good enough precip rates.

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Closed upper lows often have surprise snow patches like these. I remember in late October 2005 in State College, PA we had heavy snow under one of these for hours when even places in upstate NY and south of us had rain. These are very dynamic systems that can bring down cold air if you're under a heavy band with good enough precip rates.

 

This is the way, if it were ever to happen, to get snow in May.

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Closed upper lows often have surprise snow patches like these. I remember in late October 2005 in State College, PA we had heavy snow under one of these for hours when even places in upstate NY and south of us had rain. These are very dynamic systems that can bring down cold air if you're under a heavy band with good enough precip rates.

 

I don't believe it was a surprise at all. It was well modeled and for a few days. Euro has had this band for several runs.

The problem was that people on this site specifically turned stupid negative and then did not allow constructive talk about this potential without being ridiculed.

 

It was always modeled and it was always snow.

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Closed upper lows often have surprise snow patches like these. I remember in late October 2005 in State College, PA we had heavy snow under one of these for hours when even places in upstate NY and south of us had rain. These are very dynamic systems that can bring down cold air if you're under a heavy band with good enough precip rates.

 

Thunderstorms and heavy snow bands, here often the big surprises with cold ULLs. But it's tough to forecast for.

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Radar very impressive for Western Suffolk and more streaming down from CT and LI Sound.

Basically that band has been training, in thunderstorm like fashion, and Im guessing someone will lolly out at 6inches because those DBZ's are comfortably above 35 for the last 2 hours

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