ag3 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 These flakes in Queens? if so where? things are peetering out here in Kew Gardens Accumulations in Queens start in the Eastern sections. And mostly on cars and grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 You don't see a WWA do you? Nearly impossible to forecast something like this. A number of models had that localized snow burst across Long Island but I also thought it was overdone. But these ULL setups can produce surprises every now and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 You don't see a WWA do you? Nearly impossible to forecast something like this. HRRRRRR showed this last night. That's when you made your comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Not enough reports are being sent to Upton. There tweet about 15 mins ago said there were reports only .5" to 1.0" of snow on LI. The models also had the frontogenetic band for days, behind the ULL. But there were less consistent on placement and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Near whiteout. Bohemia. Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 HRRRRRR showed this last night. That's when you made your comments. He doesn't believe models if they show snow for LI and not his area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnowman26 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 c Vis less than 1/4 mile Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 holy fook, this has to be bordering on Heavy Snow now... haven't gone outside yet but eyeballing, we should be closing in maybe half an inch or more!! LI Jackpot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 A plow is out in Commack with heavy snow falling. https://twitter.com/News12LITW/status/450613762307784704/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 You don't see a WWA do you? Nearly impossible to forecast something like this. If its nearly impossible to forecast, maybe lay off the definitive statements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Looks like snow should be ending soon for Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 2.7" with light to moderate snow and 33 degrees. Edit: Just light snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 He doesn't believe models if they show snow for LI and not his area. That's not true, I wouldn't have believed any model showing accumulating snows for this area from an ULL with forecasted surface temps well above freezing on March 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 If its nearly impossible to forecast, maybe lay off the definitive statements? Every single model showed this band. All of them. They were wobbling the location a bit, but they all showed it anywhere from Queens to Montauk. Latest 6z Rgem had the bullseye over NYC, but it obviously was too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 The NAM did a nice job with the heavier snow potential with this band. We just need the closed low passing over the region like today to get backend snows to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 HRRRRRR showed this last night. That's when you made your comments. Yeah, still a very low probability. In case you didn't notice, I did admit that I was wrong with my first comment today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 That's not true, I wouldn't have believed any model showing accumulating snows for this area from an ULL with forecasted surface temps well above freezing on March 31st. Surface temps are ALWAYS modeled above freezing in these spring setups. But when you see strong banding with 850s and other levels below 0 (check soundings), experience tells the ones that know that it's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Every single model showed this band. All of them. They were wobbling the location a bit, but they all showed it anywhere from Queens to Montauk. Latest 6z Rgem had the bullseye over NYC, but it obviously was too far west. Today was one of those "I'll believe it when I see it". Well, I'm seeing it. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Today was one of those "I'll believe it when I see it". Well, I'm seeing it. Congrats. The last 14 years are owned by LI, in terms of snow. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 The last 14 years are owned by LI, in terms of snow. It is what it is. By Long Island you meant "Monmouth County, NJ" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Every single model showed this band. All of them. They were wobbling the location a bit, but they all showed it anywhere from Queens to Montauk. Latest 6z Rgem had the bullseye over NYC, but it obviously was too far west. Closed upper lows often have surprise snow patches like these. I remember in late October 2005 in State College, PA we had heavy snow under one of these for hours when even places in upstate NY and south of us had rain. These are very dynamic systems that can bring down cold air if you're under a heavy band with good enough precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Ronkonkoma... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Closed upper lows often have surprise snow patches like these. I remember in late October 2005 in State College, PA we had heavy snow under one of these for hours when even places in upstate NY and south of us had rain. These are very dynamic systems that can bring down cold air if you're under a heavy band with good enough precip rates. This is the way, if it were ever to happen, to get snow in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 MacArthur Airport reporting 1/8mi heavy snow!! There could be 4-5" amounts out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Radar very impressive for Western Suffolk and more streaming down from CT and LI Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Closed upper lows often have surprise snow patches like these. I remember in late October 2005 in State College, PA we had heavy snow under one of these for hours when even places in upstate NY and south of us had rain. These are very dynamic systems that can bring down cold air if you're under a heavy band with good enough precip rates. I don't believe it was a surprise at all. It was well modeled and for a few days. Euro has had this band for several runs. The problem was that people on this site specifically turned stupid negative and then did not allow constructive talk about this potential without being ridiculed. It was always modeled and it was always snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Radar showing 45 dBZ echo around Smithtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Closed upper lows often have surprise snow patches like these. I remember in late October 2005 in State College, PA we had heavy snow under one of these for hours when even places in upstate NY and south of us had rain. These are very dynamic systems that can bring down cold air if you're under a heavy band with good enough precip rates. Thunderstorms and heavy snow bands, here often the big surprises with cold ULLs. But it's tough to forecast for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 As we discussed last night, the HRRR and the RAP modeled this very well. Turned out pretty damn close to what it showed, especially considering the RAP was still over 12 hours out at the time Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Radar very impressive for Western Suffolk and more streaming down from CT and LI Sound. Basically that band has been training, in thunderstorm like fashion, and Im guessing someone will lolly out at 6inches because those DBZ's are comfortably above 35 for the last 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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