griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 gfs at hour 132 looks pretty darn good Sure does. Looked better all the way. More dig with the trough. More southern stream energy working in. Colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 If we can get the shortwave to dig into Oklahoma like the 00z GFS and the 12z Euro, this is a pretty good looking setup. The high over the northeast keeps wanting to hang on a bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sheesh! 850 freezing line gets well into florida on the 26th... Put away the gardening tools is right mid range 00z gfs would be a stretch in january... much less late march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Charlotte and Raleigh have all snow soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Not only did the 00z gfs have a decent snow Tuesday night, but it also had a "this March had been crazy so why not" clipper roll through NC a day later. Insane! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Its a pretty thing that gfs run... I dont see it getting any better, I think we may have just witnessed the best case scenario as far as this one goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Its a pretty thing that gfs run... I dont see it getting any better, I think we may have just witnessed the best case scenario as far as this one goes I agree on temperatures, but I could see more precip on best case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I agree on temperatures, but I could see more precip on best case scenario Haha yea thats true... Ill be interested in seeing the euro for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The cold air behind this system is very impressive also. Cold air reaches all the way down to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Hard to tell on the UKMet because of 24 hours between panels, but it has a 995mb low well off Hatteras. Definitely not climbing up the coast and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Canadian looks pretty chilly as well on black and white images. Looks similar to UKMet with 995 mb low well off Hatteras, but then is a late bloomer with more energy digging into the trough and it looks like another sfc low takes over and climbs just east of Cape Cod. Again, I don't have detail maps, but overall like the trends tonight so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Raleigh Great! http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Charlotte not as much http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KCLT&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Still a great run for this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 See some more maps on the Canadian now. It is quite suppressed to the south and colder. Trough digs into Oklahoma, but it looks like the flow over the southeast doesn't back to the southwest until late in the game. Looks good though for a lot of the eastern half of NC, excluding the outer banks and wilmington area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 For ATL-AHN, I believe they are very much in the game for all sorts of possibilities wintry precip-wise, mainly on 3/24. What I'd like to see is that the Miller A develop earlier thanks to more WSW 500 mb flow and do that further west in the Gulf, which is quite possible based on recent trends and would bring in much more qpf and probably still allow the cold to remain assuming a classic offshore the Gulf coast track remains. If this occurs, there would be the realistic possibility that 850's would cool to just below 0C due to evap. cooling at that level as a result of ample precip. and could conceivably result in a sig. snow. As it is now, 850's are only slightly above 0C and that due to a lack of precip. This is a very cold airmass to the north. Climo wise: ATL got 3" of SN 3/19-20/1876. 1" of SN fell just north on 3/18/1885. ATL got some SN accum. on 3/17-18/1892. ATL received 1.3" of SN on 3/21/1914 and a small accumulation on 3/20/1915. On 3/31/1915, AHN and CAE got some accumulation while AVL got clobbered with a foot! On 3/24/1934, ATL got 0.5". On 3/25/1971, ATL/AHN had a major ZR. On 3/24/1983, ATL-AHN had a very big SN (biggest at ATL for period between 1941 and the present with 7.9"). On 3/20/1996, ATL got a small accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 00z Euro is a hit for the NC Piedmont. It's not as impressive as 12z, though. Looks like 2-5" from CLT (maybe just north) to RDU and NW of there up to the foothills and into central VA. The timing is ideal in some ways and in some ways not quite ideal. The precip moves in before sunrise, so cold temperatures are established, but the bulk of the precip falls during the daylight hours (around noon on March 25th), which could be problematic in late March, depending on whether rates are any good. It doesn't really matter at this point, though, as the timing will surely change. If anything, it seems like these things speed up as we get closer to go-time, so perhaps we can get it to start more towards the wee hours of the morning. 2m temperatures sort of suck, verbatim, at 33-34, but I don't think that's a huge worry at this point. A combination of 33-34 degree temperatures, iffy rates, and the sun angle would probably spell disaster if it came to that, though. GSO is solidly all-snow with 850s never getting above -3C while RDU and CLT are a little more borderline, but probably all-snow or close to it (based on mid-level temperatures, though the Euro's warm-biased 2m temperatures might be problematic). Of course, the 00z GFS also looked nice. The chances of the NC Piedmont receiving some snow seem to be increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro @ 120hr @ 144hr Still an impressive run. I feel this has the potential to strengthen even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheech78 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Are we seriously talking about a full blown Snow Storm at the end of March?? Looking at these models looks like all of us in NC might get in on this, im liking what I see for Raleigh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 00z Euro is a hit for the NC Piedmont. It's not as impressive as 12z, though. Looks like 2-5" from CLT (maybe just north) to RDU and NW of there up to the foothills and into central VA. The timing is ideal in some ways and in some ways not quite ideal. The precip moves in before sunrise, so cold temperatures are established, but the bulk of the precip falls during the daylight hours (around noon on March 25th), which could be problematic in late March, depending on whether rates are any good. It doesn't really matter at this point, though, as the timing will surely change. If anything, it seems like these things speed up as we get closer to go-time, so perhaps we can get it to start more towards the wee hours of the morning. 2m temperatures sort of suck, verbatim, at 33-34, but I don't think that's a huge worry at this point. A combination of 33-34 degree temperatures, iffy rates, and the sun angle would probably spell disaster if it came to that, though. GSO is solidly all-snow with 850s never getting above -3C while RDU and CLT are a little more borderline, but probably all-snow or close to it (based on mid-level temperatures, though the Euro's warm-biased 2m temperatures might be problematic). Of course, the 00z GFS also looked nice. The chances of the NC Piedmont receiving some snow seem to be increasing. James, Regarding daytime wintry precip.snow: 1. GSO got 3.1" of SN on 3/25/1972 that fell noon- 6 PM. 2. RDU got a whopping 7.9" of SN on 3/24/1983 that fell 11AM-7PM. 3. GSO got sig. ZR on 3/23/1989 that fell mainly 9 AM-1 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Can't get over the amount of cold air the models are showing. The air mass is certainly cold enough for a major winter event if we can get the precip in here. Usually you could bet the NW trend at this range, but this one looks to stay suppressed. Bottom line, it's a pretty good set up. Especially for late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 6z GFS is a big hit for NC (at least for areas north of a line from south of Charlotte to south of Raleigh), up-state SC, and maybe NE GA. Below is the 24 hour precip map at hour 144: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=144ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_144_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140320+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ugh I'm seeing people with less of a clue than me posting these all over Facebook :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Here's the snow fall map: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=06&fhour=138¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 6z GFS is a big hit for NC (at least for areas north of a line from south of Charlotte to south of Raleigh), up-state SC, and maybe NE GA. Below is the 24 hour precip map at hour 144: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=144ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_144_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140320+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model its a big hit for central nc. As has been the case most of this winter the low is weak and offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 N GA Folks, Even though the net change for ATL-AHN was small wintry precipwise, I do feel the 6Z GFs is trending in a good direction. Notice how much heavier is the qpf with the precip. now focusing further west early as the surface low/upper trough lag further back to the west vs. the 0Z GFS. There's still loads of time for this to trend even better for N GA. Also, the surface temperatures are colder. It gets down to 36 in ATL and 34 in AHN verbatim. With those 850's only barely above 0C, this is already a close call to SN and it may already be cold enough for IP and/or ZR very nearby at least. Very nice baby steps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 06z GFS looks pretty incredible really with the wave vort digging well west into NE New Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Any word on the euro ensembles? Quickly looked at them, look similar to yesterday's, maybe a few more members with accumulating snow for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Any word on the euro ensembles? It continues to hold steady with a similar result. Charlotte to Raleigh stay 0 deg or lower at 850. Looked slightly warmer in N GA and SC Upstate on this particular run. Storm off the southeast coast looked the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 N GA Folks, Even though the net change for ATL-AHN was small wintry precipwise, I do feel the 6Z GFs is trending in a good direction. Notice how much heavier is the qpf with the precip. now focusing further west early as the surface low/upper trough lag further back to the west vs. the 0Z GFS. There's still loads of time for this to trend even better for N GA. Also, the surface temperatures are colder. It gets down to 36 in ATL and 34 in AHN verbatim. With those 850's only barely above 0C, this is already a close call to SN and it may already be cold enough for IP and/or ZR very nearby at least. Very nice baby steps!! The 6Z GEFS vs. the 0Z GEFS holds the very nice baby steps taken by the 6Z GFS for N GA of colder, wetter, and lagging Gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Quickly looked at them, look similar to yesterday's, maybe a few more members with accumulating snow for central NC. It continues to hold steady with a similar result. Charlotte to Raleigh stay 0 deg or lower at 850. Looked slightly warmer in N GA and SC Upstate on this particular run. Storm off the southeast coast looked the same Thanks for the EPS update fellas. Looks legit at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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