mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 IAD? only .25" DCA is .40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 only .25" DCA is .40" Yea it's an I95 jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yea it's an I95 jackpot. Which usually means Leesburg...can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Which usually means Leesburg...can't waitWe get screwed. Barley .20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We get screwed. Barley .20 Lol...it's almost July...who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 lol sno bros move in and ion gets all serious about teh models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We get screwed. Barley .20.20 barley is definitely the tastiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 in some ways reminiscient of the late feb back to back snow events we had. nice frontogenesis at 850mb.. skinny though. not sure I'd be confident till it's falling other than many models showing it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Which usually means Leesburg...can't wait Yea, better get your deck and grill ready for the photo shoot while I look at a wet concrete jungle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 One question...Why don't all NWSFO use this product? Is it just LWX? For example on Mount Holly's site they only have the Total snow forecast map, and not the experimental probabilities. Thanks and if this has been answered before, my apologies. I didnt get involved in the debate in the other thread. We are one of 6 pilot project offices. I'm the project leader for the new winter stuff at Sterling. This year we implemented these experimentally. This spring, summer and fall we will make adjustments to the products, next winter there is a good possibility they will spread to the other offices within Eastern Region. We are the tested at LWX. Hopefully the concept will spread to all NWS offices but we are years away from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro has the double low. Narrow band of 0.3" running along 95 with temps in the low 30s on Tuesday afternoon. Another 0.1-0.15 on the next panel with temps near 30. Is this really a double low or an inverted trough feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 ECMWF has a monster off of New England. Looks like sub-948mb central pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 in some ways reminiscient of the late feb back to back snow events we had. nice frontogenesis at 850mb.. skinny though. not sure I'd be confident till it's falling other than many models showing it now. The strip has been showing in various forms quite a bit. Enough to take it seriously. Hard to pinpoint exactly where if it does indeed develop. My best unbiased wag is Rockville. We're a band magnet town now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We are one of 6 pilot project offices. I'm the project leader for the new winter stuff at Sterling. This year we implemented these experimentally. This spring, summer and fall we will make adjustments to the products, next winter there is a good possibility they will spread to the other offices within Eastern Region. We are the tested at LWX. Hopefully the concept will spread to all NWS offices but we are years away from this. Quick suggestion to kill all the uninformed misinterpretation: Instead of having a seperate Min map and a Max map, put the two maps on the same graphic side by side. This will mean that people can't just link to one and say "this is what is going to happen" - the public is forced to see both at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The strip has been showing in various forms quite a bit. Enough to take it seriously. Hard to pinpoint exactly where if it does indeed develop. My best unbiased wag is Rockville. We're a band magnet town now. yeah you can see it on the GFS too. i think these features tend to be somewhat transient though. blow up blow down types of deals. it's an interesting way to get snow without being impacted heavily by the main low itself. and for the record the NAM is not showing this same scenario.. in case people try to spin the nam into being first or something lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 yeah you can see it on the GFS too. i think these features tend to be somewhat transient though. blow up blow down types of deals. it's an interesting way to get snow without being impacted heavily by the main low itself. and for the record the NAM is not showing this scenartio at all.. in case people try to spin the nam into being first or something lol. NAM is on an island for sure. Last nights euro member output had at least 30 members showing 1"+. Many 2" solutions. Obviously accum snow is tricky but there's a lot of support overall a some sort of event here. If it comes down hot and heavy it could stick between 8am-2pm. Looks like some light stuff happens in the previous panel. It would be one of those things where you better grab a pic quick because if you wait 15 minutes too long it will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 yeah you can see it on the GFS too. i think these features tend to be somewhat transient though. blow up blow down types of deals. it's an interesting way to get snow without being impacted heavily by the main low itself. and for the record the NAM is not showing this same scenario.. in case people try to spin the nam into being first or something lol. gfs_z850_uv_vort_east_19.png I wonder who that was directed toward? lol hey, the NAM was the first to show decent qpf solely from the u/l action....how it did it you can argue over, but the fact that it was first to throw up the red flag first (admittedly out of its range,whatever that is???) shows that it can sometimes pick up meso-scale features at the end of its run before some other models of course, it hasn't happened yet, but now the Euro's hat is in the ring for qpf approaching .5" so if the NAM fails, so does the Euro, and it won't matter why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 now the latest SREFs have a .5"+ bulls eye around DCA/BWI http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_066_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15¶m=precip_p24&fhr=066&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140323+15+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Quick suggestion to kill all the uninformed misinterpretation: Instead of having a seperate Min map and a Max map, put the two maps on the same graphic side by side. This will mean that people can't just link to one and say "this is what is going to happen" - the public is forced to see both at once. I see your point there. We currently list them min/most likely / max for ease of use and to show the goal posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I wonder who that was directed toward? lol hey, the NAM was the first to show decent qpf solely from the u/l action....how it did it you can argue over, but the fact that it was first to throw up the red flag first (admittedly out of its range,whatever that is???) shows that it can sometimes pick up meso-scale features at the end of its run before some other models of course, it hasn't happened yet, but now the Euro's hat is in the ring for qpf approaching .5" so if the NAM fails, so does the Euro, and it won't matter why that's not true really. almost all the precip focus has been from the upper level trough. this is the big problem with a lot of snow lovers--they don't care about facts or reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 that's not true really. almost all the precip focus has been from the upper level trough. this is the big problem with a lot of snow lovers weenies--they don't care about facts or reality. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 fixed true.. good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 that's not true really. almost all the precip focus has been from the upper level trough. this is the big problem with a lot of snow lovers--they don't care about facts or reality. you are misunderstanding what I pretty clearly wrote and that is qpf amounts it was the NAM that bumped the qpf amounts first...."the NAM was the first to show decent qpf solely from the u/l action" the Euro had the coastal getting us with higher qpf but the NAM came first with the higher u/l qpf numbers....the rest of them were pretty paltry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 true.. good point. there goes the elitist at work again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 SREF looks warm during the heaviest precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 SREF looks warm during the heaviest precip Euro puts us all in the 3"+ band, so even if some falls as white rain/mix, that's pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 there goes the elitist at work again lol you've been here for 15 years. if reading a model correctly is elitism not sure what to call you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro puts us all in the 3"+ band, so even if some falls as white rain/mix, that's pretty decent Timing isn't great for this one..hopefully we can get mod/hvy snow and stay below 35..I'm sure the usual spots will be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 aww Ian, you deleted the moron post it was OK, I had a response lol look, we're all weenies here except for a few mets and I believe that anyone who uses it is a derogatory way is hypocritical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 aww Ian, you deleted the moron post it was OK, I had a response lol look, we're all weenies here except for a few mets and I believe that anyone who uses it is a derogatory way is hypocritical No, I think there's a difference between weather lovers and weather weenies. The weather lovers enjoy weather but are realistic. The weenies will grasp at any and all straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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