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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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Not sure what CTP is looking at. GFS and ECMWF both nail the southern regions with the most snow. Even their precious GFS ens are a crush-job north of the M/D line.

Ah well. Looks like they'll be playing catch-up the entire time.

Why?

Were still 3 days away and nothing is set in stone yet...

Also schools are on a two hour delay tomorrow.

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18z GFS-ENS-BC looks pretty impressive.

 

Anyway, system is bombing out off of California. 

 

attachicon.gifgrearth 2014-02-27 20-43-16-36.png

 

Looks like one of those classic coast to coast bowling ball storms. Whatever latitude the low rolls in at on the west coast is likely around where it's going to be exiting the east coast at. 

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Ya it's cold. We are talking 20 degrees below normal on average for the month. 

 

Pathetic. For the first time in my life I've had to use the credit card to buy oil instead of using a check. I've had to fill-up nearly twice as often as usual, meaing instead of paying $600 every 2 months, this year it's been $600 each month. I mean really...this HAS to break at some point, doesn't it? I can't afford much more...

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6.5 here...sheesh.

 

I had previously read a few weeks ago, I think it was Paul Pastelok from AccuWx speculating on the impact of the primarily frozen lakes with regards to our low temps which I def agree with. Basically with the lakes virtually frozen over (88% as of mid February), we're seeing little to no modification of these cold air masses from Canada... and thus our temperatures have been diving below zero on a regular basis this winter. Makes me wonder what kind of temps we see in the wake of this coming storm if it lays down a fresh deep snow pack. Those insane low temps the GFS has cranked out from time to time might not be that far off. 

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The NAM never ceases to amaze me... We would all be hugging it ATM though if it showed wave 1 a bit colder/se and wave 2 further north... But I dont think you can get both. GGEM from a few days ago maybe would be a "perfect storm"...

Either way not taking it seriously unless GFS looks similar...

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I had previously read a few weeks ago, I think it was Paul Pastelok from AccuWx speculating on the impact of the primarily frozen lakes with regards to our low temps which I def agree with. Basically with the lakes virtually frozen over (88% as of mid February), we're seeing little to no modification of these cold air masses from Canada... and thus our temperatures have been diving below zero on a regular basis this winter. Makes me wonder what kind of temps we see in the wake of this coming storm if it lays down a fresh deep snow pack. Those insane low temps the GFS has cranked out from time to time might not be that far off. 

One solid night of radiational cooling next week and we might have a shot.  What's the coldest temp State College has ever recorded in March?

 

Currently 4° and windy here...really awful.

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The NAM never ceases to amaze me... We would all be hugging it ATM though if it showed wave 1 a bit colder/se and wave 2 further north... But I dont think you can get both. GGEM from a few days ago maybe would be a "perfect storm"...

Either way not taking it seriously unless GFS looks similar...

Qpf always overdone doesn't matter
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Looks like one of those classic coast to coast bowling ball storms. Whatever latitude the low rolls in at on the west coast is likely around where it's going to be exiting the east coast at. 

 

I guess right now it looks like it exits at Newport News?

 

I had previously read a few weeks ago, I think it was Paul Pastelok from AccuWx speculating on the impact of the primarily frozen lakes with regards to our low temps which I def agree with. Basically with the lakes virtually frozen over (88% as of mid February), we're seeing little to no modification of these cold air masses from Canada... and thus our temperatures have been diving below zero on a regular basis this winter. Makes me wonder what kind of temps we see in the wake of this coming storm if it lays down a fresh deep snow pack. Those insane low temps the GFS has cranked out from time to time might not be that far off. 

It's freaking 2.8 at 10:05 pm on Feb 27...crazy stuff.

 

I heard that about the lake's temp effect. I've also heard that it could make it colder in spring because the ice will be slower to go away. I mean, Erie is going to be next to a giant icebox for a while this spring.

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