Saturn510 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 John do you think some of these models are correct with these double digit totals tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS looks more like the euro as well....all of the global a want to focus the heaviest over NWNJ down into Trenton and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The HRRR looks too far east with the most organized area of convective precipitation through the first several hours of its run. Looking at the radar from KLWX and KDIX, the most organized precipitation is forming near DCA and in that part of VA, while the HRRR had the steady precipitation over Delaware. We will have to see if this begins to pivot northeastward from the VA/DC region towards Delaware in the next hour or two. If it doesn't it could be a tip off that the HRRR and RAP are too far east with this activity. This would not be a terrible shock as we are cutting it close based on the track of the H7 and H85 lows anyway. I believe the models had the deformation banding too far east yesterday as well, showing it in upstate SC when in reality it set up in eastern TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The HRRR looks too far east with the most organized area of convective precipitation through the first several hours of its run. Looking at the radar from KLWX and KDIX, the most organized precipitation is forming near DCA and in that part of VA, while the HRRR had the steady precipitation over Delaware. We will have to see if this begins to pivot northeastward from the VA/DC region towards Delaware in the next hour or two. If it doesn't it could be a tip off that the HRRR and RAP are too far east with this activity. This would not be a terrible shock as we are cutting it close based on the track of the H7 and H85 lows anyway. This is also what happened down south when sc was supposed to get plastered and it wound up 50 miles out further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The HRRR looks too far east with the most organized area of convective precipitation through the first several hours of its run. Looking at the radar from KLWX and KDIX, the most organized precipitation is forming near DCA and in that part of VA, while the HRRR had the steady precipitation over Delaware. We will have to see if this begins to pivot northeastward from the VA/DC region towards Delaware in the next hour or two. If it doesn't it could be a tip off that the HRRR and RAP are too far east with this activity. This would not be a terrible shock as we are cutting it close based on the track of the H7 and H85 lows anyway. There's actually some pretty decent convection starting to pop up over DELMARVA and the nearshore waters now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yea John I was just seeing the same thing, Our hope is that the second band becomes the main band not the one pivoting now To me I think you are goin to see precip start blowing up E of AC and that band closes up Think thunderstorms may start to pop out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 To me I think you are goin to see precip start blowing up E of AC and that band closes up Think thunderstorms may start to pop out there Yea thats what the HRRR has and it pulls the rest of it east...next our or 2 will be crucial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Maybe someone can explain to me....on the RAP it has shown 3 areas of banding showing up/developing....one is south of our area that comes up into our area, more off the ocean. However, this seems to be something other than snow...the other area is well N and W of us that stays north...and the 3rd area is what is down south that lifts up NNE that I believe we would need to be further east to get into the best action. What are each of these bands of snow from exactly ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 this looks like a pretty good match to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 19z HRRR output is below: Select colors: Yellow-green: 4"-6" Yellow: 6"-8" Yellow-orange: 8"-10" Orange: 10"-12" Red-orange: 12"-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If you look at the RAP and HRRR Yea thats what the HRRR has and it pulls the rest of it east...next our or 2 will be crucial Look at the breath of both models - the .8 line on both has some pretty good distance from end to end . The model can be off by 50 miles , but its telling you this is not localized . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 this looks like a pretty good match to me Yup positioning looks good but the 850 temps depiction was way off on the 19z. It had 850's all the way to the water gap I think and they were in actuality sitting south of KNYC at the same exact time as the HRRR depiction. We should wait to see the newer runs at this point anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Impressive Loop http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow the GFS has a sneak attack on SNE....drops 1-3" here Saturday and 7-10" there ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 19z HRRR output is below: Select colors: Yellow-green: 4"-6" Yellow: 6"-8" Yellow-orange: 8"-10" Orange: 10"-12" Red-orange: 12"-18" Keep them coming the next couple runs please. Seems its slowly getting snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Impressive Loop http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html Impressive indeed. We could be in for some fun later on tonight. Looks like a good 6-7 hour thump with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow the GFS has a sneak attack on SNE....drops 1-3" here Saturday and 7-10" there ! I thought Sat Storm was 3-6 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Keep them coming the next couple runs please. Seems its slowly getting snowier. I'll post some additional ones during the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamifin33 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Is it all snow tonight for everyone? Or will we have areas of mixing? (if so where) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 UPTON MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS BACKSIDE DEFORMATION BANDING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NE NJ...NYC/LI METRO AND SW CT. TRAVEL WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT BE RECOMMENDED TONIGHT IN THIS AREA...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...AND AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW LIKELY HERE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 12 INCHES...PARTICULARLY N&W OF NYC. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY AFT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA AS WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP...WITH VSBY DROPPING TO QUARTER MILE OR LESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I thought Sat Storm was 3-6 here Correction its a closed low off the coast BM special Miller B in perfect position for 6+ from NYC east..if it unfolds that way UNBELIEVABLE , bear in mind its the 18Z GFS though & we know how IT did with THIS storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Is it all snow tonight for everyone? Or will we have areas of mixing? (if so where) Temperatures at 925 are beginning to collapse, and 850s should also. I would say that it will be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 1) The heaviest precipitation right now is inside the 700mb low. The precip will be pseudo-convective, so it might not be necessarily best to assume that only heaviest snow will be falling to the west of the 700mb low. 2) The mid-level centers will become very tightly compacted. This tends to mean that ageostrophic flow becomes a lot more compact, and precipitation can be compressed closer to the center, instead of displaced well to the west, especially given the track of the 500mb low. That all being said, I still do echo some of John's concerns about the ability of the heaviest banding to shift east. But I think the above will help it at least get to Western Long Island. Also, it seems the HRRR has been verifying well so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 My snowpack is up to my thighs in nyack lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrOldSchool Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Measured 12" fresh before the rain around noon. 20-21" of snowpack in the yard. Took me all afternoon to shovel my driveway. Photo is only 1/2 of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow at 10-11pm the RAP is 3-4" per hour snow in NWNJ with nothing falling in NYC....I see earthlight's concern about it shifting west, which it is. It looks like 10"+ for them. They really get hammered again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 2 inches of NEW QPF by Monmouth County, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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