jjvesnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Been freezing drizzle for a couple hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 6-8" areawide from the backside of a system that gave us 8-12" this morning and you're saying meh. Take a break. 13" here! in NE NJ But thank you for that. Honestly this beast looks incredible on radar. Such a potent storm, all so incredibly interesting. Theres always the flip side, this could be a huge overperformer . Radar is key. Shes exploding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yea we need that direction but 850 are colder than both HRRR and RAP are showing right now I believe the warmest part of the warm punch is above 850 a bit. Maybe around 800 mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We are not gona lose any precip to mid level warmth . even the surfaces are fine . Do you find it concerning about the snow pack for tomorrow since it is predicted that NYC will reach 40 degrees before Saturday's storm? I assume that being above freezing with dry conditions isn't as harsh to the snow pack than having temps above freezing with moisture and clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 There`s 4 other models that look nothing like the 4k NAM for NYC why would you ever give it a second thought . You guys have to look at all the guidance and use a blend . Agreed and the 4km NAM is often biased too far northwest with banding anyway even at the closest possible range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I believe the warmest part of the warm punch is above 850 a bit. Maybe around 800 mb? Look at the Hi-Res models, everything crashes at the perfect time so that we get all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looking at the exploding radar down south everyone from NJ across LI should REALLY cash in. The HRRR is really beating the drum for lighting from NJ- on east across LI as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 A foot in an hour? LOL just no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 New RAP coming in pretty robust. With a bit more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Do you find it concerning about the snow pack for tomorrow since it is predicted that NYC will reach 40 degrees before Saturday's storm? I assume that being above freezing with dry conditions isn't as harsh to the snow pack than having temps above freezing with moisture and clouds. Snow pack concern ? I`m more concerned about where I am gona put all this snow by Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The RAP is pretty consistent with AT LEAST 3" of snowfall over NENJ/NYC, and very consistent with at least 5" of snow over NWNJ into the Hudson valley. The question is whether we cash in on 5-7" or more of a 3,4 range....could go either way but quite honestly I'm happy either way. There's been considerable melting and settling (maybe 3-4 inches or so), so this will replenish that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 There's a 40" spot (new snow) on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesny Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 New RAP coming in pretty robust. With a bit more to come. It looks pretty much in line w/ HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 A foot in an hour? LOL just no. That's cumulative snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Is that an additional 1.8" QPF in NE NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That's cumulative snow. Yeah, it shows some places get anywhere from 8-14 inches more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow pack concern ? I`m more concerned about where I am gona put all this snow by Sat. Tell me about it. The dog has nowhere to do his business. This is a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Is that an additional 1.8" QPF in NE NJ? Temp profile was not in line with what's occurring now. They're too warm actually which I think is causing qpf to be crazy. I'd wait for newer runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Total RAP for round 2. Gonna keep a close on this as we get closer. 6-12 area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 There's a 40" spot (new snow) on that map That 38" spot is the high peaks area of the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR offers Manhattan a nice 18-19 new inches before mid-morning Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah, it shows some places get anywhere from 8-14 inches more. I read 1-hourly as 1 hour, and it only seemed somewhat possible since it's a wxbell map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar looking like Jan 26, 2011, oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This map has to be overdoing it!! The HV and Westchester is getting destroyed verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The HRRR looks too far east with the most organized area of convective precipitation through the first several hours of its run. Looking at the radar from KLWX and KDIX, the most organized precipitation is forming near DCA and in that part of VA, while the HRRR had the steady precipitation over Delaware. We will have to see if this begins to pivot northeastward from the VA/DC region towards Delaware in the next hour or two. If it doesn't it could be a tip off that the HRRR and RAP are too far east with this activity. This would not be a terrible shock as we are cutting it close based on the track of the H7 and H85 lows anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That 38" spot is the high peaks are of the Catskills. It's a moot point since it has no way of actually verifying, but that 40" spot is actually on the border of Dutchess and Putnam counties. WB has a beta page with the NYC metro and you can get a close up view. Regardless, looks like it should be a fun event to watch unfold and many on here will be able to pad their snow totals a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The HRRR looks too far east with the most organized area of convective precipitation through the first several hours of its run. Looking at the radar from KLWX and KDIX, the most organized precipitation is forming near DCA and in that part of VA, while the HRRR had the steady precipitation over Delaware. We will have to see if this begins to pivot northeastward from the VA/DC region towards Delaware in the next hour or two. If it doesn't it could be a tip off that the HRRR and RAP are too far east with this activity. This would not be a terrible shock as we are cutting it close based on the track of the H7 and H85 lows anyway. Yea John I was just seeing the same thing, Our hope is that the second band becomes the main band not the one pivoting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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