LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 No I don't. We'll see though. In most cases like this the cf makes it through the south shore after a small battleWhile this is normally true and you have climo on you're side I am beginning to think this isn't a normal situation. The immediate south shore where I am should miss out on crippling ice which is fine with me. If I was up in the north shore hills I would be worried about long term outages. This will knock out the most power since sandy in the zone just south of the sleet area and just north of the coastal front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The NAM is still showing dynamic cooling near NYC and north at the 850 mb level. You can observe it on this loop..heavier precipitation kicks down the warm air advection before it eventually wins out. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/8loop.html Exactly. That's why eastern PA, like the Lehigh Valley, started off with light ZR and has now gone over to snow, via dynamic cooling overcoming the weak (at this time) WAA aloft. Key to the forecast of snow vs. sleet vs. ZR is how that battle goes and when enough warm air works its way in to melt the falling snow and how deep that warm layer is - which, in turn, determines whether the melted falling snow freezes into sleet before it hits the ground or freezes as supercooled ZR upon contacting sub-32F surfaces. I can't imagine how hard this is to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 snowing here in north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 While this is normally true and you have climo on you're side I am beginning to think this isn't a normal situation. The immediate south shore where I am should miss out on crippling ice which is fine with me. If I was up in the north shore hills I would be worried about long term outages. This will knock out the most power since sandy in the zone just south of the sleet area and just north of the coastal front Where do you see the coastal front making its most north locations ??? any on this board, please chime in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What does that mean exactly? It means everyone is saying nam was wrong while your post proves this is not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Mt. Holly really worried about power outages: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ1209 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014...ANOTHER WINTER STORM WITH SNOW AND ICE WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THEAREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...NJZ009-010-PAZ060>062-101>106-051315-/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140205T1800Z/HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN1209 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THISAFTERNOON...* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH.* TIMING...SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. BE PREPARED TO LOSE POWER. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERYHAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATINGSNOW THEN ICING... BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Where do you see the coastal front making its most north locations ??? any on this board, please chime in...almost impossible to predict... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow HRRR cut back big tjme on the frozen for us. Half of what it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It means everyone is saying nam was wrong while your post proves this is not the case. Lol it is snowing in over hundreds of miles of territory in PA and the NAM had exactly 0.0 for theses areas. It busted or is in the process of busting end of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Lol it is snowing in over hundreds of miles of territory in PA and the NAM had exactly 0.0 for theses areas. It busted or is in the process of busting end of discussion. Ok NYC will not see 6" of snow. This is an inland ice storm for both NYC and PHL forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow HRRR cut back big tjme on the frozen for us. Half of what it was It was the 3z dude. 4z Rap came in way snowier. That HRRR ran off the 3z RAP so it's behind already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ok NYC will not see 6" of snow. This is an inland ice storm for both NYC and PHL forums Where in my post did I say we'd get 6 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Where do you see the coastal front making its most north locations ??? any on this board, please chime in...Climo says the lie. In this best guess in the southern state in Nassau and further north in Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Light snow has started on Staten Island.... time for zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Gulp http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0072.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Climo says the lie. In this best guess in the southern state in Nassau and further north in Suffolk that's about my thinking right now as well...but it's like picking 2 right numbers in the lotto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It was the 3z dude. 4z Rap came in way snowier. That HRRR ran off the 3z RAP so it's behind already. Oh sorry. And I learned something. I didn't realize it runs off the older RAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Lynbrook...first flakes have commenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Oh sorry. And I learned something. I didn't realize it runs off the older RAP! This has always been my understanding about that model anyway. Anyone can correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LOL EWR reporting rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 New SPC MD mentioned the ZR/IP difference I was speaking about earlier. The surface cold depth being greater across NNJ suggests more of a sleet threat there initially, while areas just to the south where the sfc cold is shallow but still stubborn will support the ZR threat. Really interesting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Climo says the lie. In this best guess in the southern state in Nassau and further north in Suffolkclimo would argue this, but climo may not be perfect for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 climo would argue this, but climo may not be perfect for this. Yea that's why it's such a tough call for Li. Even if we do see a lot of freezing rain, it won't be like in NNJ or the hudson valley bc they will stay in the upper 20s to around 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LOL EWR reporting rain Could it be the light intensity of the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Could it be the light intensity of the rain? They corrected it to FZRA but most everyone else is snowing and its snowing here now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 sleet snow mix here in Queens lets see if we can over to all snow with cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Mostly Sleet here in the Southern Lehigh Valley PA for the last hour FWIW. Occasional snowflake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 sleet snow mix here in Queens lets see if we can over to all snow with cooling The pinging of sleet has begun in Kew Gardens Queens... lets see what happens in next 20 minutes. expect to switch to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 does anyone know where this initial warm layer is ? It's not at 850mb or 925mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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