Cashtown_Coop Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Also CONSIDERED ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH FOR POSSIBLE 6" IN 12HRS OVER THE FAR SRN TIER ADJ TO LWX/PHL BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AND SREF/GEFS MEANS STRONGLY SUPPORTING LESSER/HIGH-END ADVY AMTS..OPTED TO KEEP MENTION IN HWO AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ISSUE WSW IF NECESSARY. A reasonable but consevative approach. I think best case, we wake up with a WSW. Well I'll wake up, In your case you'll prob still be up tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 A reasonable but consevative approach. I think best case, we wake up with a WSW. Well I'll wake up, In your case you'll prob still be up tracking. LOL. I'll be up till like 2am probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS has another mammoth ice storm for the weekend. Near 1" qpf with surface below and 850's at or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Who turned on the winter? This is like Feb 09-10 just more north with all these storms in a row it feels like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I am having a hard time buying any serious snow accumulations this week in the LSV. With a string of warm days and the every increasing February sun angle, we need snow to start well before sunrise and it to remain heavy through the daylight hours. The storms this week don't seem to have too much punch or energy with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Man all these moisture laden storms, what would it take for one to go underneath us to the coast? Love to see what one of the southern stream storms could hit us with if we could get all snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 UNV-IPT looked to get buried Tues-Wed system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Are you trolling now? I am having a hard time buying any serious snow accumulations this week in the LSV. With a string of warm days and the every increasing February sun angle, we need snow to start well before sunrise and it to remain heavy through the daylight hours. The storms this week don't seem to have too much punch or energy with them. I hope he is. We've been below freezing here for 2 weeks and the ground is frozen solid. Here at Millersville, we still have chunks of ice in the parking lots and still 85-90% snow covered. I've seen it snow 5" before down in MD the day after it was 60 degrees. I think for Monday we'll be fine in the LSV. Midweek on the other hand may be ice ice baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 UNV-IPT looked to get buried Tues-Wed system. Who are you and what did you do with the real Wmsptwx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Who are you and what did you do with the real Wmsptwx? i lol'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I hope he is. We've been below freezing here for 2 weeks and the ground is frozen solid. Here at Millersville, we still have chunks of ice in the parking lots and still 85-90% snow covered. I've seen it snow 5" before down in MD the day after it was 60 degrees. I think for Monday we'll be fine in the LSV. Midweek on the other hand may be ice ice baby Pretty sure it was like in the 70's in NC and they got like a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 You'll have to excuse me, I'm used to Maryland winters for the past two years where it just falls from the sky and insta-melts on contact with the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 You'll have to excuse me, I'm used to Maryland winters for the past two years where it just falls from the sky and insta-melts on contact with the ground. We don't live in DC here man. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I am having a hard time buying any serious snow accumulations this week in the LSV. With a string of warm days and the every increasing February sun angle, we need snow to start well before sunrise and it to remain heavy through the daylight hours. The storms this week don't seem to have too much punch or energy with them. Atlanta was 61F on Monday. Then they had light snow between 11AM and 7PM on Tuesday that accumulated to 2.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I work in DC Metro though so I go from brown ground to a modest snow pack daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Pretty sure it was like in the 70's in NC and they got like a foot. Exactly. The pure dynamics of the storm on Monday will be the key to snow accumulations. Looks like a pretty good UVV signal by the hi res models from Northern MD up to HBG to the east between the Northern extent of one jet maxima and the retreating jet maxima off to the Northeast. When you lie between those two streaks, you get good lift from usual jet entrance and exit regions. Those areas in between will see increased banding from that structure. Anyone embedded within will see moderate to heavy snow for a prolonged time and the column should cool sufficiently all the way to the surface. I can see 4-8" a distinct possibility from I81 east towards Philly along the MD/PA line up to HBG. Someone there should clean up. Northern MD will get clocked too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I work in DC Metro though so I go from brown ground to a modest snow pack daily. I don't see you point? lol. DC weather sucks, but doesn't mean we are going to get nothing cause they never do. I need to get my snow shovel ready. Will be the heaviest weight wise snowfall this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thank the good lord this is NOT DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Exactly. The pure dynamics of the storm on Monday will be the key to snow accumulations. Looks like a pretty good UVV signal by the hi res models from Northern MD up to HBG to the east between the Northern extent of one jet maxima and the retreating jet maxima off to the Northeast. When you lie between those two streaks, you get good lift from usual jet entrance and exit regions. Those areas in between will see increased banding from that structure. Anyone embedded within will see moderate to heavy snow for a prolonged time and the column should cool sufficiently all the way to the surface. I can see 4-8" a distinct possibility from I81 east towards Philly along the MD/PA line up to HBG. Someone there should clean up. Northern MD will get clocked too I agree. Man Frederick and Philly is going to add to their already insane snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I agree. Man Frederick and Philly is going to add to their already insane snow totals. Someone on the other subforum mentioned Philly must have this giant snow magnet somewhere in their city Frederick has been doing very nice also, but I'm used to seeing them cash in out there. The hills out there keep their temps in good shape for a majority of storms. I sometimes feel bad for DC guys especially because a lot of them, especially Wes Junker down there do a lot and get paid back very little. That's what happens when you live there though. I grew up in Baltimore county outside the beltway, so i had my fair share of cash ins in my lifetime. Living here at Millersville now basically is the same type of deal, just further north, granted my elevation here is actually less than home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We be like. DC be like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=unv (Jmister, I know you asked before) 140205/0300Z 81 09004KT 19.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0140205/0600Z 84 10007KT 17.1F SNOW 14:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.404 14:1| 6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140205/0900Z 87 11007KT 17.7F SNOW 11:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.522 12:1| 11.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 100| 0| 0140205/1200Z 90 12003KT 23.1F SNOW 13:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.316 12:1| 15.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.27 100| 0| 0140205/1500Z 93 19004KT 31.7F SNOW 17:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 12:1| 16.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31 100| 0| 0140205/1800Z 96 25006KT 34.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 12:1| 16.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.32 62| 0| 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=unv (Jmister, I know you asked before) So, what are you trying to say PSU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Bring it back! 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Bring it back! 09-10 I wish I still had my pictures from 2/5-6/10 and 2/10-11/10 from Baltimore. Still got video though. What a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Lol look where no precip hole ended up I think Zak probably photo shopped that hole in there for you. Models are trending nicely. GFS has come north a lot since yesterday morning. Seems the GFS/ECMWF are somewhat in agreement on this first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm with MAG when it comes down to the ultimate track. I would imagine the actual track would come farther north than currently modeled because a cold front with a developing wave on it almost always is slower than progged. Southern counties should do fine with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So weird...we use the same website, but the only thing that changes is the 'k' before 'unv': site = unv: site = kunv: Goes to show you that you probably can't put much stock into the automated p-type methods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So, what are you trying to say PSU? Wow....He better get the hip boots out. Edit: Jmister That is weird!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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