I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ya but I like 4" of wet snow over 6" of dry anyways. Looks nicer and lasts longer. Yup! Plus for down here with more ice and wetness coming mid week the pack could "drink more" and has a better shot at survival versus being washed away instantly. Still have almost 100% ambient snow cover here but a few small patches opened up with the warmth. Give me concrete I can keep a little longer and that is icing on the winter cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM looks like it is about to collapse to epic proportions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM looked great then just lost it. Why does that model suck so much. lol. It needs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM looks like it is about to collapse to epic proportions. Elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Elaborate? It was way juicer and north with precip back into the Ohio Valley then it just failed like usual. That model needs to go. Maybe it will catch on 6 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM recovers a bit at 42. It is getting there. .50"+ now along MD line. Compared to last nights 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 LWX has watches up just to the south now. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAYEVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE.* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...ANDCONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATIONIS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND 30 MONDAY MORNING.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...MAKINGTRAVEL DIFFICULT DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW WILLREDUCE VISIBILITY TO BELOW ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM came around. I guess I should have stuck to my first post about it collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Lol look where no precip hole ended up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Lol look where no precip hole ended up eastern NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Lol look where no precip hole ended up NAM still got more north room to go. It is clueless with Wed storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM for Wed storm. AKA why this model sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Today has killed snow cover aroubdHBG/Camp Hill and Mechanicsburg. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think just a Special Weather Statement should be put out for this system for some light snow and 1-3 inches. Advisory not needed, snow will have difficult time sticking to paved roads after 3 days in the low to mid 40s and marginal temps on Monday.Road temps wont be that warm, and regardless of road temps rates will overcome ANY MARGINAL surface warmth. It will accumulate fast. Watches will be needed down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I remember in March 2005 - we had an event where it was in the 60s the day or two previous - and yet we still got 6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think just a Special Weather Statement should be put out for this system for some light snow and 1-3 inches. Advisory not needed, snow will have difficult time sticking to paved roads after 3 days in the low to mid 40s and marginal temps on Monday. ground is still solid frozen... tried to work at an ice issue here from ground water coming up that has built up the past two weeks and didnt get far at all despite mid 40s and some sun... 2-3 days in the low to mid 40s isnt going to warm it enough after nearly 2 weeks below freezing to prevent snow from accumulating once again... this monday event is a wave moving along the front... the only way it will "jump north" is if the front does not push south east as quickly late tomorrow... I really dont see it pushing southeast quicker than the models either as MAG explained above I also wouldnt put a lot of weight into the 18z NAM for the Tuesday/Wednesday event at that range and with this Monday system first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 ground is still solid frozen... tried to work at an ice issue here from ground water coming up that has built up the past two weeks and didnt get far at all despite mid 40s and some sun... 2-3 days in the low to mid 40s isnt going to warm it enough after nearly 2 weeks below freezing to prevent snow from accumulating once again... this monday event is a wave moving along the front... the only way it will "jump north" is if the front does not push south east as quickly late tomorrow... I really dont see it pushing southeast quicker than the models either as MAG explained above I also wouldnt put a lot of weight into the 18z NAM for the Tuesday/Wednesday event at that range and with this Monday system first... I'd never put weight into the NAM. Maybe at like 6hrs out. I'd make a forecast based of the barometer like they did in the old days before i'd use the NAM. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The opening snow map from CTP (for the Mon 2/3 storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The opening snow map from CTP (for the Mon 2/3 storm) StormTotalSnow.png Looks pretty good. Close to my map as well. Might bump north though if models keep going toward a GGEM/Euro solution. 0Z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 LOL. Hope Yorkpa doesn't work for penndot. He later edited it to add he was just joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hope Yorkpa doesn't work for penndot. He later edited it to add he was just joking. Good to know he was joking, I really was concerned... not really. haha. He is still 5 posted lol, guess for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z GFS just had its coolest run yet. H85 0 line doesn't even get out of PA. Keep that trend going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z GFS just had its coolest run yet. H85 0 line doesn't even get out of PA. Keep that trend going. The GGEM and EURO are much colder. I'm sure the GFS will eventually fall to that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hope Yorkpa doesn't work for penndot. He later edited it to add he was just joking. I was gonna say, if he wanted to work the whole "it's too warm for it to accumulate on roads" reasoning he should've mentioned sun angle... It is Feb 1st after all lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The GGEM and EURO are much colder. I'm sure the GFS will eventually fall to that idea. Watch it be a fringer for us by 0z tmrw lol. Seriously though that run was colder at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 CTP Disco: THE HIGH CONFIDENCE OUTCOME IS A SWATH OF 1-3/2-4" OVER THE SRN1/3 OF THE CWA WITH SOME LCL AMTS OF PERHAPS 4-6" OVER THE HIGHERTERRAIN OF THE LAURELS AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE/S OF RT 30.THE SNOW SHOULD IMPACT THE MONDAY AM COMMUTE ALONG THE PA TURNPIKEAND IN THE LSV METRO AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The Euro ens strongly agree with Op. The mean snowfall here is like 14" for the two storms combined. Then up to near 20" by the weekend. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 CTP Disco: THE HIGH CONFIDENCE OUTCOME IS A SWATH OF 1-3/2-4" OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH SOME LCL AMTS OF PERHAPS 4-6" OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE LAURELS AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE/S OF RT 30. THE SNOW SHOULD IMPACT THE MONDAY AM COMMUTE ALONG THE PA TURNPIKE AND IN THE LSV METRO AREAS. Also CONSIDERED ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH FOR POSSIBLE 6" IN 12HRS OVER THE FAR SRN TIER ADJ TO LWX/PHL BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AND SREF/GEFS MEANS STRONGLY SUPPORTING LESSER/HIGH-END ADVY AMTS..OPTED TO KEEP MENTION IN HWO AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ISSUE WSW IF NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This is one of those forecast where it could go either way. Might be 2-4" down here or could be like 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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