NortheastPAWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think I'll take an early wager on 1-3" up here Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hammered! Over 20MM in the southern tier. Heaviest frame. Near 10MM in one frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't see anyone getting over 6" at this point. Need to see what GFS/GGEM do tonight. Hammered! Over 20MM in the southern tier. Heaviest frame. Near 10MM in one frame. Just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Phew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Phew! You worry too much dude. The normal areas will get hit like they have all year. Snow breeds snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hammered! Over 20MM in the southern tier. Heaviest frame. Near 10MM in one frame. Seems to jive well with the 21z SREF QPF mean.. which is around 0.8" for HGR, THV, and LNS. 20mm = 2cm 2.54cm = 1 inch 2cm = 0.78" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 lol wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You can see the gradient starting to tighten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This might have a shot at being Harrisburg's biggest event of the season, surpassing the 4.7" mark. Holding out hope ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The NAM and GFS refuse to follow the ggem and euro. Will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This might have a shot at being Harrisburg's biggest event of the season, surpassing the 4.7" mark. Holding out hope ... Me too! I only need 4.3" to exceed my biggest event which was back on 1/2-3. If I remember from earlier posts I think by Mag, he said the Euro gave MDT between 0.7" and 0.8" of liquid. As I zoom into the GGEM snow map to 400% (lol) I can pretty much make out that I am on the edge of 20mm...0.78" which squarely matches the Euro. Gotta be feeling better and better about this actually. Let's ride the Euro through storms 2 and 3 and build up our glacier. JB just said that the upcoming stormy pattern can be likened to Feb 1994. The favorite analog keeps going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS looks like convective feedback too. Just going to stick with the non US models on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS colder on Wednesday storm finally. Lot of snow north, lots of sleet/ice south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lol, we're throwing out the GFS? It's been pretty good all year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lol, we're throwing out the GFS? It's been pretty good all year! If there is a model run error, then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I might be getting ahead myself...but dare I say it...is an all snow event possible Wednesday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I might be getting ahead myself...but dare I say it...is an all snow event possible Wednesday?? Of course. It's always been possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Of course. It's always been possible. Just hope too much precip doesn't escape from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I might be getting ahead myself...but dare I say it...is an all snow event possible Wednesday?? I would say so. Models always struggle with CAD and trend colder up to the very end. If I had to make a call today I would say 3-6 inches of snow and sleet ending as freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I might be getting ahead myself...but dare I say it...is an all snow event possible Wednesday?? Some of those earlier runs this week were reminding me of a better CAD version of the Nov 26/27th event with the significant freezing rain/ice storm, but the last few runs look more like Dec 14th v2.0. GFS is getting there wrt to the colder Canadian/Euro, still looks mix-y at hour 84 with 850 0 line running through northern Penn and IPT. Probably could argue a sizeable front end dump for the rest of C-PA regardless. Given good CAD, predominant mix type probably going to be sleet over freezing rain.. although I'm sure there will be a least a thin corridor of decent ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Some of those earlier runs this week were reminding me of a better CAD version of the Nov 26/27th event with the significant freezing rain/ice storm, but the last few runs look more like Dec 14th v2.0. GFS is getting there wrt to the colder Canadian/Euro, still looks mix-y at hour 84 with 850 0 line running through northern Penn and IPT. Probably could argue a sizeable front end dump for the rest of C-PA regardless. Given good CAD, predominant mix type probably going to be sleet over freezing rain.. although I'm sure there will be a least a thin corridor of decent ice. So far it looks like even more QPF than 14 December - was there a GoM connection with that storm like this one appears to have? Also, how long off are we from the key pieces of the upper-air pattern being onshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Anyone see GFS for weekend storm? lol. Huge snow storm. Blizzard of 96 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wow at the setup shown on the GFS at hour 180: Nothing like a significant storm forming with Gulf of Mexico moisture running into a 1044 high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wow at the setup shown on the GFS at hour 180: Screen Shot 2014-02-01 at 11.33.24 PM.png Nothing like a significant storm forming with Gulf of Mexico moisture running into a 1044 high! Hour 192 is sleepy time. 12-24"+ storm. If only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS colder on Wednesday storm finally. Lot of snow north, lots of sleet/ice south.Doesn't seem that much colder then 18z to me. It's trending I guess but not much change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The NAM and GFS refuse to follow the ggem and euro. Will be interesting to see what happens.gfs killed my buzz after rgem was great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Doesn't seem that much colder then 18z to me. It's trending I guess but not much change. Surface is much colder. Doesn't get me above 32 this run till storm is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 gfs killed my buzz after rgem was great Really?? GFS gives you like 10" Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Really?? GFS gives you like 10" Wednesday.I think you must have the wrong idea about where I live. First I never look ahead when models can't get tomorrow right. Who knows what wed will be by then. Second gfs gives me about 3" before 850s go above 0c. Then ice and I hate ice. Next weekend looks amazing but that's fiction range. I'm focused on Monday and it was a buzzkill. I need one more morth trend and it went south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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