I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 They will likely upgrade after the Euro. Even then they could wait until the 18z models. Already have headlines so they dont have to rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At the last SkyWarn training, the mets said that it is standard practice to cut qpf numbers by at least a third. So if you want an idea of what they are thinking, cut a third off. They said the models are always to wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Getting there. 5 inches is prob going to be the high end even down along the Mason-Dixon Line. Temperatures are going to be iffy. Snow growth not ideal. Prob 8-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 5 inches is prob going to be the high end even down along the Mason-Dixon Line. Temperatures are going to be iffy. Snow growth not ideal. Prob 8-1. Don't think so. There will be some 7-8" totals for some. Maybe even 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I understood what you meant man! Don't worry about who gets snow and who doesn't enjoy what you get!! The precip shield looks a little further north, but I was stating the actual track can stay where it is. But for you guys I hope the northern cutoff is not to sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I understood what you meant man! Don't worry about who gets snow and who doesn't enjoy what you get!! I really think you will make out ok up there tomorrow. Maybe a couple inches. So far this winter the storms reach always seems further north then what is modeled. So good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Haven't seen that big of a .1"+ in 1 hr over us all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Best tracking week in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RAP looks north of other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RAP looks north of other guidance. Radar looks north of other guidance too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Radar looks considerably north of the NAM in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Where is cold front? Sorry, mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 7-10" haha nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Good map from Eric. Tough forecast all around, but his forecast matches up with mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 looks like Horst is going all in for southern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is why I need to remember to look at the models first, then look here. This is not "precip amounts fading fast". Breath, man. Breeeaaaattttthhhh. WED 06Z 05-FEB -5.3 -3.2 1020 96 99 0.34 558 543 WED 12Z 05-FEB -4.6 -0.1 1011 98 97 0.68 553 544 WED 18Z 05-FEB -2.8 -6.1 1011 91 85 0.08 543 534 Admittedly, I was rushing this morning as I overslept and was running late for work, so I didn't get a good chance to look at the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 looks like Horst is going all in for southern PA As well he should. The best dynamics will lie around Northern MD up to just south of HBG. Looks like some good vertical motion in that zone could enhance precip around those areas with banding. Unfortunately, where ever the bands set up, someone to the north will get screwed due to subsidence. I like his map. Should be a fun time watching this happen tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This could be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This could be a problem. Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Could be some serious icing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 As well he should. The best dynamics will lie around Northern MD up to just south of HBG. Looks like some good vertical motion in that zone could enhance precip around those areas with banding. Unfortunately, where ever the bands set up, someone to the north will get screwed due to subsidence. I like his map. Should be a fun time watching this happen tomorrow Of course we all know where that will be...lol I'd sure like to squeak out 3" from this one though. As for the mid-week storm, I'm not liking the major ice showing up on the models. I'd prefer all snow, snow to sleet, or all rain. 3/4 inch of ice would not be good at all. Especially with the cold air that supposedly follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Good lord. It's not that bad... if you like no power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Given what I've heard about this area and these setups - I'm going to say 3-6" for UNV Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The radar to our SW looks juiced for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This could be a problem. Yuck. 0.5-0.75 Ice in LSV and more out west. I don't envy your spot Eastern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Adjust for RUC normal north bias and 6-8" is right where it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The radar to our SW looks juiced for once. Gulf moisture helps a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yuck. 0.5-0.75 Ice in LSV and more out west. I don't envy your spot Eastern Sure it is extreme. I see .4-6" likely with higher amounts. Still bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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