Jmister Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z GFS for UNV: Mind giving a link to your source to these? The one I look at has been showing me different readouts. The 12z GFS on this site: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kunv shows only a few inches of snow followed by lots and lots of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That leads me to think that the third possibility is also entirely possible...lots o sleet. We really need to see what is going on above 850mb to get the whole picture. Looking at the TwisterData Skew-Ts, the gridpoint to the SW of State College (around Huntington) is borderline snow/sleet at 90 hr, while the point nearest to Lock Haven is squarely snow. By 96, both locations are way above freezing at 700-900mb but near freezing at the surface. Precip type will be a close call for many areas and it may not be settled until the event is underway. At least in my experience there, that's how these usually go: 2-3" of snow and 2-3" of sleet and some ZR at the very end, or plain rain. 07-08 had plenty of those at UNV, and 08-09 had some also. The crazy ZR predictions usually don't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Mind giving a link to your source to these? The one I look at has been showing me different readouts. The 12z GFS on this site: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kunv shows only a few inches of snow followed by lots and lots of ice. On mobile atm so can't link - but I did post it in the pinned links thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 With all due respect, I believe the WxBell maps are done quite well! One has to understand that their maps are simply an algorithm based on whatever the final output request might be. In terms of the snow maps, I believe this is done by accumulating EVERY flake of snow and most are quite aware this is not the case in the real world. One of their snowfall maps actually includes surface melting along with the accumulation (I believe the 12Km NAM). But for all of the critical remarks concerning the WxBell maps, personally I feel they are drawn very well and are one of the best available today. I also really utilize the College of DuPage, too. http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Again I refer to the OT thread where some pros question them. The issue is they will show snow when key profile temps are above freezing. Another thing and this is certainly not their fault, people post them here and on facebook as if that's exactly what the model shows. Your best bet for snow maps remains Earl Barker maps on wxcaster.com. A lot of mets recommend them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At least in my experience there, that's how these usually go: 2-3" of snow and 2-3" of sleet and some ZR at the very end, or plain rain. 07-08 had plenty of those at UNV, and 08-09 had some also. The crazy ZR predictions usually don't pan out. LOL...our jm telling us it's not going to be a big deal mandatory statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 UKMET pretty juicy. about .6-.7" near the MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro is huge. .25" near UNV for Monday. Over .5" along MD line. Will get more exact numbers here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z Euro running the southern tier pretty nicely. The hour 54 frame runs the 0.25 line from roughly Washington, PA.. between UNV/AOO, and then to Allentown. Preceding hour 48 frame had 0.1-0.25" along a good bit of that same area. 0.1 line getting up past IPT hour 54. Hour 60 with an additional 0.1-0.25" in the southeast 1/4 of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro QPF IPT .1-.2" UNV .3-.4" MDT .7-.8" MD line .9-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 LOL. I'd pay big money for another few jumps north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro similar to GGEM for Wednesday. Much colder. 32 line down to Baltimore/DC. Significant snow UNV north. Significant ice/sleet south of there. Really no plain rain. Pretty much widespread .6"+ qpf. Combined amounts for southern tier between two storms over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 My guess is about an inch of precip. with Tues-Wed. event if you average them all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 LOL. I'd pay big money for another few jumps north.I just need one more jump but was thinking the same thing several times this year and it never came so not getting hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I just need one more jump but was thinking the same thing several times this year and it never came so not getting hopes up. I don't know why you guys are worried about Monday so much. Let us have ours, you get yours Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow what a run of the Euro on Wednesday's storm. Transfer happens at a decent time and I believe that while the models have been seeing the CAD signature for days... they are now starting to pick up on the magnitude of it with things beginning to come into focus. IPT likely all snow. UNV looked like mostly snow with some sleet. Places like MDT probably see mostly frozen too by the looks of it. 850mb 0ºC line stays anchored near the MD border in the eastern half of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 My guess is about an inch of precip. with Tues-Wed. event if you average them all out. That Gulf of Mexico moisture will not be denied. You can see it clearly advecting northeastward along the 297K isentropic surface, producing some pretty impressive PWAT anomalies. Moisture transport looks like it is weaker in the latest Euro run due to the weaker primary low. I haven't looked at the details yet but I would think it has less precip as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro QPF IPT .1-.2" UNV .3-.4" MDT .7-.8" MD line .9-1" Wow on the Euro Qpf. That would be a 10 inch pasting. Ratios will be standard or poor. I think if Euro verifies 6-10 down here is a good bet. I have been leaning on that "idea" as everything has been steadily getting wetter and wetter with each run on all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I don't know why you guys are worried about Monday so much. Let us have ours, you get yours Wednesday. no guarantee of that. Monday could stay just south then wed goes just north and I get 1" from both. That's been the trend this year. It's why I have 14" when 20 miles either direction has 30+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I was thinking 6 was a definite possibility but after seeing the 12Z runs minus the Euro I now think 3-6 is a better call. 6-10 might be a bit premature, we would need another small jog north. Definitely don't want it to come more then 50 miles North. These storms tend to happen further north then originally modeled to begin with. Hope is there for another LSV special. The trend this year has been wetter closer in so the 12Z runs seemed to inch very close to my idea. Still time to trend either way, but the north trend and increased QPF seems like it won't be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow on the Euro Qpf. That would be a 10 inch pasting. Ratios will be standard or poor. I think if Euro verifies 6-10 down here is a good bet. I have been leaning on that "idea" as everything has been steadily getting wetter and wetter with each run on all guidance. Models have been too wet with most storms this season and most qpf has been much less than modeled. However those where northern stream systems and this is southern stream so this might be juicer. For now 3-6" looks best with isolate higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 no guarantee of that. Monday could stay just south then wed goes just north and I get 1" from both. That's been the trend this year. It's why I have 14" when 20 miles either direction has 30+ I highly doubt you are anywhere near too far south for Tuesday-Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro is beautiful. It is a beast for this area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Models have been too wet with most storms this season and most qpf has been much less than modeled. However those where northern stream systems and this is southern stream so this might be juicer. For now 3-6" looks best with isolate higher amounts. I agree, but this system is plenty wet, and the way southern stream systems are handeled by the Euro versus the northern stream gives me more confidence in the super wet outcome. All other guidance also is following in the super wet direction. At this range I like my "call". Obviously, for those who have to forecast for the public no need to pull that trigger yet, and I agree that it is the best be to go conservative from a public standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I just need one more jump but was thinking the same thing several times this year and it never came so not getting hopes up. Honestly, it doesn't seem to matter if the models jump north or not. The end result is that we get fringed with about an inch or two. Gut feeling is we end up the same with the Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro is beautiful. For both events - 3-5" Monday, 6"+ Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I agree, but this system is plenty wet, and the way southern stream systems are handeled by the Euro versus the northern stream gives me more confidence in the super wet outcome. All other guidance also is following in the super wet direction. At this range I like my "call". Obviously, for those who have to forecast for the public no need to pull that trigger yet, and I agree that it is the best be to go conservative from a public standpoint. More concerned with crappy ratios. It is going to be iffy. Maybe 8-10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 15z SREF is pushing the .25+ line to UNV Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 More concerned with crappy ratios. It is going to be iffy. Maybe 8-10:1Ya but I like 4" of wet snow over 6" of dry anyways. Looks nicer and lasts longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not ready to buy into a complete throttling of the southern tier (8-12") yet for Monday. For now, I think a safer bet would be more of a general 4-6" snowfall with maybe some scattered higher totals for the axis of heaviest precip. But either way.. given today's trends, CTP's morning take of 1-3" near the MD border isn't going to fly when they update their products this afternoon. I also think this has a better chance of actually coming a bit further north than the last couple of these events. The weekend frontal passage isn't drilling in a fresh arctic airmass, and the colder air to support the snow could be a bit more sluggish to bleed back in and thus have the wave running somewhat further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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