jiksports Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Here in Ithaca, we've gotten a pretty impressive start. A couple tenths of an inch of snow already. Looks like we have a shot a 5-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12Z NAM and GFS are upping the ante for precipitation in CNY. Both have us over .5 inch thru tomorrow morning. It will be interesting to see if any of the local forecasters up their snowfall amounts at noon.BGM is planning on upping the totals (from an email I received) very soon. Might shift the WSW west a county from the current warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heavier returns showing up over Ithaca. We could make a run at 5 or 6 inches here if the future radars are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Interesting excerpt from the BUF discussion: SPEAKING OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE...IT IS WORTH MENTIONING HERE THAT THE 12Z NAM/GFS/GEM HAVE ALL TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WEST AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH SEEMS TO VERIFYING SO FAR GIVEN RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WITH THIS WETTER TREND...THE ABOVE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END WARNING CRITERIA SNOW TOTALS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...AND ADVISORY- TYPE AMOUNTS EXTENDING A BIT FURTHER WEST INTO THE FINGER LAKES THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES... HAVE ELECTED TO DIGEST THE ABOVE MODELS A BIT MORE AND AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE 12Z EURO BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE CHANGES /ADDITIONS...HOWEVER THESE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO HOLD. STAY TUNED...THE REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 235 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 NYZ009-018-036-037-044-141500- /O.UPG.KBGM.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-140214T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KBGM.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140214T1500Z/ NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...SYRACUSE...ONEIDA...UTICA... ROME...CORTLAND 235 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...ONONDAGA...ONEIDA...MADISON AND CORTLAND COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK. * ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected]. && $$ I'm not sure if BGM waited for the 12Z Euro before upgrading. To go from nothing 2 days ago to possibly 6-10 is pretty amazing. This storm will have to be studied to try to determine why the medium range models performed so poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 posted warning for Watertown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm jealous, share the snow pl0x!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 New advisory for Ithaca gives us 4-8. We've gotten over 2 already and the flakes are getting bigger. If that deform band over Binghamton makes it up here there could be some fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Models score an F for this event.....all of them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Models score an F for this event.....all of them.. I've never seen models perform so badly in all the time I've been following weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Upgraded to Winter Storm Warning Light snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Models score an F for this event.....all of them.. It's amazing how narrow the banding is so far.. the massive dry slot wasn't very well modeled either. Hoping it will start to fill in as frontogenetical forcing increases as the ULL swings northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I had a feeling this might happen. The 700mb level looked promising out further west than qpf was being thrown. Plus. Neg tilting bombs don't have slp's scooting out ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The NWS has us getting 2" tonight but Pulaski 4-6". Wouldn't the further north you go have less accumulations? Unless that's from lake effect too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The NWS has us getting 2" tonight but Pulaski 4-6". Wouldn't the further north you go have less accumulations? Unless that's from lake effect too? BGM hasn't updated their point and click yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The NWS has us getting 2" tonight but Pulaski 4-6". Wouldn't the further north you go have less accumulations? Unless that's from lake effect too? take a look at the new forecast map from KBGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRLady Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Starting to spit out a few flakes now....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 WOW just checked the new map. I saw it an hour ago when it was 2-4. It jumped to 8-10" just like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That heavy band should reach us by around 6pm according to the latest briefing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That heavy band should reach us by around 6pm according to the latest briefing. And with any luck, it'll stop over us and pivot....where that westward progression stops, will be the jackpot winners for CNY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Is it cold enough for lake enhancement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Weren't virtually all numerical models placing the core of this def band more or less over the Hudson valley to New England? That's kind of a big miss. And look at that gargantuan dryslot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Big miss on the models with defo band. Looks like west progress has slowed or stopped. Which is concerning because it is right on the east of my door ;o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Interesting rotation on the precip from the ULL down in the MA right now. Unless I'm mistaken, that appears to be heading NNW and may juice the def snow later. Some ppl thinking that is headed for New England but...looks like its being thrown into PA and NY state to my eyes, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I've never seen models perform so badly in all the time I've been following weather. Agreed. And in a strange way, I love it. It's fun to know that you can still be surprised a mere 6-12 hours out. Sucks for people designing models though..... I've been kicking around the thought that perhaps we are seeing a little bit of the Fujiwhara effect in regards to the interaction between the primary and the "kicker". IE: the primary is being pulled slightly Northwest toward the great lakes low. The primary then begins a period of rapid intensifcation and surges Northeast while absorbing the kicker. It'll be fun to watch how things play out this evening. The catskills are going to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Agreed. And in a strange way, I love it. It's fun to know that you can still be surprised a mere 6-12 hours out. Sucks for people designing models though..... I've been kicking around the thought that perhaps we are seeing a little bit of the Fujiwhara effect in regards to the interaction between the primary and the "kicker". IE: the primary is being pulled slightly Northwest toward the great lakes low. The primary then begins a period of rapid intensifcation and surges Northeast while absorbing the kicker. It'll be fun to watch how things play out this evening. The catskills are going to get crushed. I wondered the same regarding the upstream kicker over the past two days...various nwp were joining the upper level isobars esp at 700 mb. I have to wonder if the incoming energy has somehow exerted an influence so as to keep the entire system in close to the coast vs skirting out NE? Perhaps this is part of the phasing process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I would love to see this defo band get amped up by the moisture getting thrown nw by the upper LP in se Pennsylvania! That and a little lake enhancement we'd have the local mets jumping from bridges. They already had to add snowfall totals and then up them. Winter advisories for Wayne and Ontario counties, wouldn't take much to have Monroe and Livingston thrown in. I'm watching the meso models and the local radars like some kinda mad person! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The storm is pivoting now. North-South bands setting up across CNY are being enhanced by the ULL, and should last well into the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeMeToManos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Piling up hard in Newfield a few miles SW of Ithaca. Wind starting to howl as well up here on the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I am a dumb ass! Put post on other pin. Phoenix so far at 4.5 to 5". I would not be surprised if city of Syracuse picks up a foot tonight. What a freaking surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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